UFC DFS Rundown
UFC Vegas 123: Moicano vs. Nolan
12 fights · DraftKings Classic · locks Saturday 5:00 PM ET
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Main event
Nolan
in 3 of every 4 lineups
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Over the field
Kropschot
our favorite $9K play
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Missed weight
Marshall
two pounds heavy
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What you need to know
- Pick a side in the main event. Moicano and Nolan are close to a coin flip, priced $200 apart and projected for the same ownership. Over five rounds, whoever wins probably takes over the fight, and the loser scores very little. Splitting evenly gets you the same result as the field, so we're choosing.
- Francis Marshall missed weight. He came in two pounds over for his fight with Dakota Hope, and he looked drained on the scale. He's the only fighter who missed.
- A 12-fight card leaves less room to be different. Fewer fighters means more lineups end up the same. On cards this size, the edge comes from your side of the close fights and from which underdogs you pair with the chalk.
The card at a glance
Books are sportsbook win odds with the vig removed, in the order the fighters are listed.
| Bout | Books | Our lean |
| Moicano vs Nolan | 53 / 47 | Nolan, 3 of every 4 lineups |
| Smith vs Brown | 70 / 30 | Smith, core |
| Osbourne vs Durden | 49 / 51 | Want this fight, over on Durden |
| L. Santos vs Y. Santos | 73 / 27 | Under on Luana |
| Lebosnoyani vs Hasanov | 72 / 28 | Both, Hasanov at double the field |
| Marshall vs Hope | 65 / 35 | Hope, under on Marshall |
| Sezinando vs Berggren | 61 / 39 | Light on both |
| Lee vs Erosa | 56 / 44 | Lee, under on Erosa |
| Reese vs Gall | 78 / 22 | Reese at the field |
| Kropschot vs Klein | 73 / 27 | Kropschot, over the field |
| Rodriguez vs Alencar | 71 / 29 | Under on both |
| Szabova vs Lisboa | 85 / 15 | Szabova at the field, no Lisboa |
What wins on a 12-fight card
We pulled the winning lineups from the biggest DraftKings UFC tournaments on cards with 10 to 12 fights. Here is what they had in common.
| Underdogs | Three in 43% of winners, two in 37%. Smaller cards leave more room for dogs than big ones do. |
| $9K fighters | Two in 43% of winners, one in 37%. |
| Same fight | Only 6% of winners played both fighters in one bout. Pick one. |
| Ownership | Median total around 182%, and the chalkiest fighter in a typical winning lineup sat near 48%. Chalk is fine here, as long as the rest of the lineup is yours. |
| Salary | Median $49,700. Leaving a few hundred dollars unspent is normal. |
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The fights that decide the slate
Moicano vs. Nolan. Our pick is Nolan. He's the younger fighter with one loss in twelve, and his power is the fastest route to a big score. Moicano is the veteran, and his path is grappling his way through five rounds. Expect the winner to shut the other man down, so the side you leave out probably won't score enough to hurt you. We're playing Nolan in about three of every four lineups and Moicano in the rest. Projected ownership has them dead even, so that tilt is where the leverage comes from.
Osbourne vs. Durden. The books can't separate them, and this is a fight we want exposure to, because the winner should score well either way. Durden wins by wrestling, which racks up takedown and control points. Osbourne wins by knockout. We're over the field on Durden and even with the field on Osbourne. Never both in the same lineup.
Marshall vs. Hope. Marshall is the favorite, but at $8,700 he needs a finish or a lot of takedowns to pay off, and he missed weight looking drained. We don't trust him to take Hope down often enough to get there. Hope is the underdog we like most on the card: he'll make Marshall fight for every point. We don't like fading anyone on a 12-fight card, so we're under on Marshall rather than out on him.
Lebosnoyani vs. Hasanov. Hasanov is undefeated and fights off his wrestling. He's a real underdog, not a long shot, and at 16% owned we're happy to play him at about double the field. We're a little over on Lebosnoyani too. He has the tools to end it, and a stoppage at $9,000 wins tournaments.
Kropschot vs. Klein. A 73% favorite and our favorite $9K play. He's in our core and we're over the field. We're passing on Klein.
Player board
Salary, our projection, our projected ownership.
Core
| Joe Kropschot · $9,300 · 80.9 · 38% | Our favorite play at the top of the card. Over the field. |
| Jacobe Smith · $8,800 · 80.4 · 41% | Our highest-owned play, and a 70% favorite. Play him. |
| Tom Nolan · $8,200 · 71.5 · 44% | Our main event side. About three of every four lineups. |
Over the field
| Cody Durden · $7,900 · 56.5 · 43% | Our pick in a bout we want plenty of. Wrestling wins score. |
| Dakota Hope · $7,500 · 43.2 · 23% | Our favorite underdog. Marshall missed weight and has to work for every point. |
| Farman Hasanov · $7,200 · 39.6 · 16% | Undefeated, and live. We want about double the field. |
| Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani · $9,000 · 82.7 · 29% | A little over. A 72% favorite with stoppage upside. |
At the field
| Zach Reese · $9,100 · 88.0 · 34% | A 78% favorite. Fine in any lineup. |
| Lucia Szabova · $9,600 · 98.2 · 35% | The top projection on the card, at the top salary. |
| JeongYeong Lee · $8,600 · 82.4 · 31% | The favorite, and less owned than Erosa. |
| Ode Osbourne · $8,300 · 63.8 · 21% | The knockout side of Osbourne vs. Durden. |
Under the field
| Renato Moicano · $8,000 · 71.7 · 44% | Our other main event side. About one lineup in four. |
| Francis Marshall · $8,700 · 77.6 · 26% | Missed weight, and needs a finish at this price. |
| Rodrigo Sezinando · $8,500 · 75.5 · 28% | We're light on this whole bout. |
| Theodor Berggren · $7,700 · 50.0 · 37% | Too popular for a 39% underdog. |
| Julian Erosa · $7,600 · 52.0 · 39% | More owned than Lee, the favorite who projects 30 points higher. |
| Luana Santos · $8,900 · 68.9 · 22% | Likely winner, but this fight looks headed to the scorecards. |
| Piera Rodriguez · $9,200 · 75.0 · 23% | Same problem at $9,200. |
Passing on: Nick Klein and Tainara Lisboa.
GPP Core
Joe Kropschot, Jacobe Smith and Tom Nolan: our favorite $9K fighter, the chalk we want to eat, and our side of the main event. $26,300 for the three.
Finish it yourself:
- Add Durden or Osbourne, more often Durden.
- Hope and Hasanov are our favorite underdogs to add.
- A second $9K fighter, like Lebosnoyani, only fits if you skip Osbourne vs. Durden and fill with two of the cheaper dogs.
- One side of every fight. No Klein or Lisboa.
| In the Moicano lineups, keep Kropschot and Smith, and the $200 you save gives you a little more room in the last two spots. Never pair Moicano with Nolan. |
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Pick your main event side in the optimizer
Open the MMA optimizer and turn on Main Event Lock. Every lineup gets a fighter from Moicano vs. Nolan, so none of your lineups misses the fight most likely to decide the slate. Then set Nolan's max exposure to 75% and Moicano's to 25% to match our tilt, lock the core, and let it build. Projections and ownership refresh through Saturday.
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Good luck Saturday, and happy Halloween. Reply to this email with questions, or come talk lineups in the Discord.
Salaries are DraftKings Classic prices. Projections and ownership are Seeking Optimal's, as shown in the optimizer Friday afternoon. Books are sportsbook moneylines with the vig removed. Winning-lineup findings come from past DraftKings UFC tournaments. Check for late card changes before lock. Play responsibly.
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