UFC DFS Rundown
Buckley vs. Malott
UFC Edmonton · 13 fights · DraftKings Classic · locks 5:00 ET Saturday
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Anchor
Galanti
83% to win
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Main event
Buckley
a near coin flip at $7,800
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Swing fight
Koslow
vs. Anheliger
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What you need to know
- All 26 fighters made weight, including both main event fighters at 170.5.
- Galanti vs. Leblanc was added late, and Galanti came in as the priciest name on the slate at $9,500. Leblanc is the cheapest at $6,700.
- Steven Koslow returns from a long layoff as a 60% favorite, yet he costs $200 less than the man he is fighting. That price puts him at the top of our ownership projections.
- The main event is five rounds, so whoever wins Buckley vs. Malott has 25 minutes to pile up points.
The card at a glance
Books are sportsbook win odds with the vig removed, in the order the fighters are listed. Fans are community picks.
| Bout | Books | Fans | Our lean |
| Buckley vs Malott | 47 / 53 | 68 / 32 | Buckley |
| Blanchfield vs Jasudavicius | 74 / 26 | 90 / 10 | Field weight |
| Perez vs Nelson | 75 / 25 | 91 / 9 | Perez |
| Daukaus vs Barriault | 64 / 36 | 86 / 14 | Both live |
| Jourdain vs Cuamba | 61 / 39 | 85 / 15 | Under the field |
| Nallo vs Landwehr | 71 / 29 | 88 / 12 | Nallo |
| Diniz vs Boser | 66 / 34 | 87 / 13 | Diniz only |
| Galanti vs Leblanc | 83 / 17 | 97 / 3 | Galanti, heavy |
| Faglier vs Mahjoub | 55 / 45 | 62 / 38 | Faglier, Mahjoub as a pivot |
| Cerminara vs Stiller | 71 / 29 | 77 / 23 | Fade Cerminara |
| Koslow vs Anheliger | 60 / 40 | 76 / 24 | The swing fight |
| Croden vs Chandler | 74 / 26 | 94 / 6 | Croden |
| Chovancek vs You | 55 / 45 | 74 / 26 | You is live |
What wins on a 13-fight card
We studied the winning lineups from DraftKings' big-field UFC tournaments, the $15 and up contests like Saturday's $20 Throwdown, on cards with 13 fights. Here is what they had in common.
| Underdogs | 91% had two or three underdogs. One or none was rare. |
| $9K fighters | 81% played one or two fighters at $9,000 or more. Three: 11%. |
| Cheap fighters | Most had one fighter under $7,500 (51%). Two: 34%. |
| Big scores | 83% had at least four fighters score 100 or more. You need finishes. |
| Ownership | Median total ownership about 172%, middle half 150% to 182%. 74% had nobody under 10% owned. |
| Both sides | Only 4% used both fighters from one bout. |
See the winners for yourself. Perfect Lineups, part of Seeking Optimal Pro, shows the winning lineup and the best possible lineup for every DraftKings contest.
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The fights that decide the slate
Koslow vs. Anheliger decides the slate. Koslow wants to wrestle. If his early shots land, he banks grappling points plus a first-round bonus and almost certainly makes the optimal, at a price that opens up salary everywhere else. If Anheliger stuffs those attempts and keeps it standing, the fight tilts his way as it wears on, and he is owned at well under half of Koslow's rate. Play Koslow around the field and keep a real slice of Anheliger. One side per lineup.
Buckley vs. Malott. The books barely separate them, and the fans actually favor Buckley. He costs $600 less, draws less ownership, and carries one-shot power across five rounds. We prefer Buckley and will be under the field on Malott.
Faglier vs. Mahjoub. A heavyweight coin flip that the field likes on both sides. We like Faglier to win, but with the crowd leaning his way, an early Mahjoub stoppage is the result that separates you.
Cerminara vs. Stiller. Cerminara is a 71% favorite, but she tends to win by decision, and a points win does not pay off $9,000. We are fading her. Stiller is a cheap underdog with a real path if this turns into a grappling fight.
Chovancek vs. You. Chovancek is a modest favorite at about 55%, and the fans like him more than that. You keeps shooting for takedowns whether he is winning or losing the round, so his score holds up at $7,700. He is live.
Player board
DraftKings salary, then our projection in orange and projected ownership.
Core
| Nick Galanti · $9,500 · 99.5 · 34% | An 83% favorite against a late replacement. We expect him to run through Leblanc, and his wins rarely reach the judges. |
| Melissa Croden · $8,900 · 84.4 · 28% | A 74% favorite who should spend most of this fight on top or pressed against the fence. Her score climbs even if the stoppage never comes. |
| Joaquin Buckley · $7,800 · 65.4 · 31% | Our main event side. Nearly even odds, cheaper and less owned than Malott, with knockout power for five rounds. |
Solid
| Cristian Perez · $9,200 · 85.0 · 32% | A fast starter with power and takedowns, against an opponent who has wilted under pressure. Our favorite second $9K. |
| Mandel Nallo · $9,100 · 88.3 · 31% | A strong bet to finish inside the first round or two. Fine as your second $9K, but not with Perez in the same lineup. |
| Joel Faglier · $7,900 · 64.8 · 45% | Our pick to win the heavyweight coin flip. Sharper on the feet, deeper gas tank, and cheap. |
| SuYoung You · $7,700 · 58.4 · 37% | His takedown volume keeps him scoring even if Chovancek takes the decision, and he can win this outright. |
The swing fight
| Steven Koslow · $8,000 · 63.4 · 43% | The chalkiest fighter on the card. When he wins, expect grappling points and an early bonus. |
| Chad Anheliger · $8,200 · 58.3 · 17% | Our leverage play in the fight everyone is on. Priced above the favorite, so few people will click him. |
Leverage
| Javad Mahjoub · $8,300 · 65.7 · 40% | The pivot off Faglier. If he wins a scramble early and lands on top, it likely ends quickly. |
| Mackenzie Stiller · $7,200 · 39.4 · 13% | A cheap underdog with a grappling path to the upset. |
Fades
| Katlyn Cerminara · $9,000 · 70.6 · 15% | A decision fighter at $9,000. Even a win probably does not pay. |
| Mike Malott · $8,400 · 78.0 · 39% | The books favor him slightly, but we like Buckley at a lower price and lower ownership. |
GPP Core
Nick Galanti, Melissa Croden and Joaquin Buckley: the safest finisher on the card, a favorite the field is underplaying, and our side of the main event. $26,200 for the three.
Finish it yourself:
- Pick Koslow or a second $9K fighter (Perez or Nallo). With this core, the salary rarely fits both.
- Get to two or three underdogs. Buckley is one; You, Anheliger and Mahjoub are the others we like.
- One side of Koslow vs. Anheliger, never both. No Cerminara.
- Spend close to the full $50,000.
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Build yours in the optimizer
Open the MMA optimizer, lock your core, and set your exposures to match the leans above. Projections and ownership refresh through Saturday afternoon.
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Good luck Saturday. Reply to this email with questions, or come talk lineups in the Discord.
Salaries are DraftKings Classic prices. Projections and ownership are Seeking Optimal's, as shown in the optimizer Friday afternoon. Books are sportsbook moneylines with the vig removed; fans are community picks. Winning-lineup findings come from past DraftKings UFC tournaments. Check for late card changes before lock. Play responsibly.
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