UFC DFS Rundown
UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev
14 fights · DraftKings Classic · locks Saturday 10:00 AM ET
|
|
Main event
50 / 50
play both sides, never together
|
Over the field
Petr Yan
knockdowns score
|
Missed weight
Caliari
five pounds heavy
|
What you need to know
- Two title fights, both five rounds. Volkanovski and Evloev headline for the featherweight belt, and Yan and Dvalishvili meet again for bantamweight gold. Twenty-five minutes is a lot of time to pile up strikes, takedowns and control, so a title-fight decision can outscore an early finish on the undercard. We want a fighter from each title fight in every lineup.
- The main event is a true coin flip. The books have it dead even, and the two are priced $200 apart.
- One fighter missed weight. Nicolle Caliari came in five pounds over for her fight with Iasmin Lucindo, the only miss on the card. We are passing on both sides of that one.
- The cheap end is crowded. Most of the $7,500 to $7,900 range is projected to be heavily owned. That is where we are getting different.
The card at a glance
Books are sportsbook win odds with the vig removed, in the order the fighters are listed.
| Bout | Books | Our lean |
| Volkanovski vs Evloev | 50 / 50 | Both, one per lineup |
| Yan vs Dvalishvili | 58 / 42 | Yan, over the field |
| Kavanagh vs Temirov | 52 / 48 | Under on Kavanagh |
| Volkov vs Kuniev | 52 / 48 | Under on Kuniev |
| Pico vs Keita | 58 / 42 | Pico |
| Murzakanov vs Reyes | 64 / 36 | Murzakanov, over the field |
| Yakhyaev vs Krylov | 81 / 19 | Yakhyaev, core |
| Magomedov vs Rowston | 53 / 47 | Under on Rowston |
| Dawson vs Aliev | 50 / 50 | Dawson, over the field |
| Chopurov vs Thicknesse | 83 / 17 | Chopurov, no Thicknesse |
| Vagaev vs Malkoun | 58 / 42 | Under on Vagaev |
| Santos vs Oki | 52 / 48 | Both live, Oki for a KO |
| Steele vs Gugnon | 58 / 42 | Steele, light on Gugnon |
| Lucindo vs Caliari | 77 / 23 | Pass |
What wins on a 14-fight card
We pulled the winning lineups from the biggest DraftKings UFC tournaments on cards this size. Here is what they had in common.
| Underdogs | Exactly two in 64% of winners. Big cards reward favorites, not long shots. |
| $9K fighters | Two in half of winners, one in a third. |
| Same fight | No winner played both sides of a fight. Pick one main event fighter per lineup. |
| Ownership | Median total around 162%, and the most popular fighter in a winning lineup sat near 44%. |
| Salary | Median $49,900. Use the whole cap. |
See the winners for yourself. Perfect Lineups, part of Seeking Optimal Pro, shows the winning lineup and the best possible lineup for every DraftKings contest.
Lock in Alpha pricing. Seeking Optimal is in Alpha, and Pro is 50% off while it lasts. Sign up now and your rate never goes up as long as you stay subscribed, even after we raise prices. See Pro pricing |
The fights that decide the slate
Yan vs. Dvalishvili. This is our biggest lean. Yan is the favorite, and Dvalishvili has been dropped before. Knockdowns are worth points on DraftKings, and they are easy to overlook when you expect a long, grinding fight. Dvalishvili's takedowns give him the higher ceiling on paper, which is why the field will split close to evenly. We will play Yan in more lineups than the field does.
Volkanovski vs. Evloev. The books cannot pick a winner and neither can we. Volkanovski brings the deeper title-fight resume; Evloev brings youth and a grinding pace. Split your lineups close to evenly, one side each.
Yakhyaev vs. Krylov. Yakhyaev is an 81% favorite, and we expect him to finish this one. A stoppage from a $9,400 fighter is the kind of score that wins tournaments, and the field is only moderately on him. He is in our core.
Dawson vs. Aliev. A pick'em in the books, but the field is twice as heavy on Aliev. We think Dawson's wrestling decides it, and at 18% he is the best leverage on the card.
Murzakanov vs. Reyes. A 64% favorite at $9,000, owned below most of the cheap underdogs. We are higher than the field.
Player board
Salary, our projection, our projected ownership.
Core
| Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev · $9,400 · 85.0 · 35% | Our favorite play on the card. We expect a finish. |
| Petr Yan · $8,800 · 85.8 · 42% | The favorite in the co-main, with knockdown upside. We are over the field. |
| Grant Dawson · $8,500 · 66.8 · 18% | A coin flip the field has decided against. Our leverage play. |
Main event
| Alexander Volkanovski · $8,200 · 79.1 · 36% | Five rounds of volume striking. Half of our main event exposure. |
| Movsar Evloev · $8,000 · 77.6 · 37% | The other half. Takedowns and control rack up points over 25 minutes. |
Also on our side
| Azamat Murzakanov · $9,000 · 80.4 · 22% | A 64% favorite, and less owned than most of the cheap underdogs. |
| Asaf Chopurov · $9,500 · 85.1 · 26% | An 83% favorite, the biggest on the card. A solid second $9K fighter. |
| Aaron Pico · $8,300 · 70.0 · 24% | A 58% favorite, while the field piles onto Keita on the other side. |
| Jacob Malkoun · $7,300 · 40.7 · 10% | The underdog that makes the salary work. A wrestler at 10% owned. |
Fades
| Losene Keita · $7,900 · 56.7 · 38% | The most popular underdog on the card. |
| Cam Rowston · $7,800 · 57.4 · 37% | Popular in a near coin flip, against a favorite who projects 14 points higher. |
| Nurullo Aliev · $7,700 · 59.3 · 37% | Twice Dawson's ownership in a fight we think Dawson wins. |
| Lone'er Kavanagh · $7,900 · 59.5 · 37% | A coin flip owned like a lock. Temirov's power makes this a fight to be light on. |
| Abubakar Vagaev · $8,900 · 65.6 · 35% | $8,900 for a modest favorite who projects below most of the $8K tier. |
How to get different
The field is paying down on this card. Most of the cheap underdogs, Keita, Rowston, Kuniev, Oki and Gugnon, are projected above 30% owned. Meanwhile a group of favorites priced $8,300 to $9,000 sits at 16% to 25%: Volkov, Dawson, Steele, Murzakanov, Pico, Santos and Magomedov. Every one of them is at least a coin flip, and most of them face one of the popular underdogs.
| Win the last two spots | After our core and a main event fighter, the leftover salary pulls you straight into the popular cheap underdogs. Make Malkoun one of your two underdogs, and count Evloev as the other when he is your main event side. |
| Rotate the core | Yakhyaev is a strong play, but a popular one. In some lineups, spend that salary on two of the overlooked favorites instead. You give up very little projection for a lot less ownership. |
| The biggest gap | Volkov is a modest favorite owned less than half as much as Kuniev. A handful of Volkov lineups is the cheapest way to separate. |
| Where not to bother | The main event split will look like everyone else's, so your edge in the title fights is being over on Yan. And skip the long shots: Thicknesse and Krylov are cheap for a reason. |
GPP Core
Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev, Petr Yan and Grant Dawson: the finisher we trust most, our side of the co-main, and the favorite the field is fading. $26,700 for the three.
Finish it yourself:
- Yan covers the co-main. Add one main event fighter, splitting Volkanovski and Evloev close to evenly across your lineups.
- Get to exactly two underdogs. Malkoun is the one that makes the salary fit.
- One side of every fight. No Thicknesse, Krylov or either side of Lucindo vs. Caliari.
- Spend close to the full $50,000.
|
Build yours in the optimizer
Open the MMA optimizer and turn on both Main Event Lock and Co-Main Event Lock, so every lineup gets a fighter from each five-round title fight. Then lock your core and set your exposures to match the leans above. Projections and ownership refresh through Saturday morning.
|
Good luck Saturday. Reply to this email with questions, or come talk lineups in the Discord.
Salaries are DraftKings Classic prices. Projections and ownership are Seeking Optimal's, as shown in the optimizer Friday afternoon. Books are sportsbook moneylines with the vig removed. Winning-lineup findings come from past DraftKings UFC tournaments. Check for late card changes before lock. Play responsibly.
|
