UFC DFS Rundown
UFC 332: Silva vs. Wang
Salt Lake City · DraftKings Classic · locks 4:00 ET
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Main event
Silva 65%
five rounds, vacant title
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Slate
14 fights
Ribovics missed weight
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Live dog
Kopylov
33% to win, $7,400
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What you need to know
- Marcus McGhee has a new opponent. Benardo Sopaj is out, and Anthony Romero takes the fight on short notice in his UFC debut. McGhee's $8,500 salary was set for Sopaj and never moved.
- Ribovics missed weight by half a pound and will be fined, but his bout against Green goes ahead. Everyone else made weight, including Roberto Soldic, who is back at welterweight.
- Salt Lake City is at altitude. Cardio is a bigger question than usual, especially for the short-notice fighters and anyone who has rarely gone past the first round.
- Rafael Dos Anjos is back at 155 after two years away, in his 40s, against Alexander Hernandez.
- The main event is a five-round title fight, and neither woman takes many people down. Expect it to reach the judges, which limits what either one can score.
The card at a glance
Books are sportsbook win odds with the vig removed, favorite first. Fans are community picks.
| Bout | Books | Fans | Our lean |
| Silva vs Wang | 65 / 35 | 82 / 18 | Wang in GPPs |
| Talbott vs Figueiredo | 85 / 15 | 95 / 5 | Talbott |
| Ribovics vs Green | no line | 44 / 56 | Both live |
| Soldic vs Williams | no line | 85 / 15 | Williams |
| Gautier vs Kopylov | 67 / 33 | 72 / 28 | Kopylov |
| Rodriguez vs Coria | 56 / 44 | 70 / 30 | Overweight |
| Pinas vs Pulyaev | 83 / 17 | 97 / 3 | Pinas |
| McGhee vs Romero | 80 / 20 | 97 / 3 | Under the field |
| Wint vs Armand | 81 / 19 | 97 / 3 | Wint |
| Walker vs Parkin | 51 / 49 | 67 / 33 | Walker |
| Smith vs Whitehead | 88 / 12 | 98 / 2 | Smith |
| Hernandez vs Dos Anjos | 70 / 30 | 88 / 12 | A little RDA |
| Naurdiev vs Vettori | 56 / 44 | 41 / 59 | Naurdiev |
| Nolan vs McGee | 67 / 33 | 82 / 18 | Nolan |
What wins the $400K Special
We studied the winning lineups from DraftKings' big-field UFC GPPs, the $15 and up contests like tomorrow's $25 Special, on 12 to 14 fight cards. Here is what they had in common.
| Underdogs | 86% of winners had two or three underdogs. One or fewer: 6%. |
| $9K fighters | 83% played one or two fighters priced $9,000 or more. Three: only 9%. |
| Big scores | 81% had at least four fighters score 100 or more. You need finishes, not just wins. |
| Ownership | Median total ownership was 171%, about 29% per fighter, and 73% had no fighter under 10% owned. You don't need a deep punt like Bruce Whitehead to win. |
| Both sides | Only 2% played both fighters from one bout. |
| Salary | Median spend $49,800. Leaving a little salary unused is fine when it buys the right fighter. |
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The fights that decide the slate
Rodriguez vs. Coria is the fight we want the most of. Imanol Rodriguez has never needed the judges in a win. Alden Coria is sharper on the feet, and the books barely separate them (56 / 44). Whoever wins has a strong chance to land in the optimal lineup, so we are heavier on this fight than the field. One side per lineup, never both.
Gautier vs. Kopylov. Ateba Gautier has knockout power, but no one has knocked Roman Kopylov out in his pro career, and Kopylov will look for takedowns. At $7,400 and 33% to win, he is a live underdog whose salary leaves room for two fighters at $9,000 and up.
McGhee vs. Romero. McGhee is an 80% favorite and the best points per dollar on the slate in our projections. A price that soft is easy to spot, so expect him in a lot of lineups. He tends to win on the feet over three rounds rather than chase a finish, and a points win won't move you up the leaderboard when half the field has him. Lock him in cash. In GPPs, play less of him than the field does.
Hernandez vs. Dos Anjos. Dos Anjos hasn't fought in two years and is in his 40s, so the field will mostly pass. He is also a 30% underdog with far more experience than Hernandez, on a card short on underdogs worth playing. A small share of lineups is enough.
Silva vs. Wang. Silva is a 65% favorite, but she doesn't take many people down, and her DraftKings scores in past wins have come in below her price. At $7,500, a Wang upset would be one of the most valuable results on the card. We lean Wang in GPPs and play the fight no heavier than the field.
Player board
DraftKings salary, then our projection in orange and projected ownership.
Core
| Anthony Wint · $9,300 · 90.4 · 32% | An 81% favorite with three ways to win: on the feet, with strikes on the ground, or by submission. Cheaper than Smith and Pinas, and our first choice at $9K. |
| Damian Pinas · $9,400 · 90.8 · 28% | Huge power, and his fights almost never reach round two. At $9,400 he needs a finish, and that is the likeliest result. |
| Imanol Rodriguez · $8,600 · 75.0 · 26% | Every win of his career has been a finish, and he costs just $100 more than McGhee, who will draw the crowd. |
Solid
| Jacobe Smith · $9,800 · 96.1 · 29% | Our top projection and an 88% favorite against a late replacement. At $9,800 he is the priciest fighter on the card, and in big GPPs the slate's priciest fighter made one winning lineup in three. |
| Payton Talbott · $9,600 · 85.0 · 23% | An 85% favorite against a fading Figueiredo. Fits best in lineups that already lean on favorites. |
| Ateba Gautier · $8,800 · 83.7 · 29% | Knockout power at $8,800, a price point most lineups skip on the way to the $9K fighters. |
| Esteban Ribovics · $8,900 · 78.8 · 26% | Missed weight by half a pound. He is the younger, higher-volume striker, and Green is the more popular side. |
Leverage
| Roman Kopylov · $7,400 · 39.3 · 26% | Nobody has knocked him out as a pro, he can wrestle, and his salary fits two $9K fighters. |
| Wang Cong · $7,500 · 60.9 · 33% | An upset at $7,500 is one of the most valuable outcomes on the slate. |
| Alden Coria · $7,600 · 48.5 · 36% | The other half of the fight we are heaviest on. Sharper on the feet, and $1,000 cheaper than Rodriguez. |
| Khaos Williams · $7,000 · 41.5 · 19% | Knockout power at $7,000, against an opponent who hadn't made 170 in years. |
| Rafael Dos Anjos · $7,100 · 38.0 · 17% | A small piece, not a core play. A 30% underdog with a long resume, at 17% owned. |
Under the field
| Marcus McGhee · $8,500 · 87.6 · 23% | A cash lock. In GPPs, the softest price on the slate is where the crowd will be. |
Fades
| Court McGee · $7,200 · 43.0 · 18% | Over 40, 1-4 in his last five, and a 33% underdog. |
| Bruce Whitehead · $6,400 · 23.5 · 4% | A late replacement on roughly a week's rest, against an unbeaten D1 wrestler. Winners rarely need a punt this deep. |
| Mick Parkin · $7,800 · 62.7 · 41% | Our highest projected ownership on the card, in a fight the books call a coin flip. Johnny Walker is the less crowded side. |
| Marvin Vettori · $7,900 · 59.4 · 18% | Four straight decision losses. Hard to see a big score at $7,900. |
| Lucas Armand · $6,900 · 30.9 · 12% | Debuting, and regional heavyweights have taken him down repeatedly. Wint will too. |
GPP Core
Three fighters who fit everything above: a piece of the Rodriguez-Coria war, Kopylov, and Wang as our main event lean. $23,500 for the three, which leaves $26,500 for the rest.
Core
| Imanol Rodriguez · $8,600 · 75.0 · 26% | Our side of the fight we are heaviest on. |
| Roman Kopylov · $7,400 · 39.3 · 26% | The live underdog who pays for the $9K tier. |
| Wang Cong · $7,500 · 60.9 · 33% | Our main event leverage play in GPPs. |
Finish it yourself. Add one or two fighters at $9,000 or more, like Wint, Pinas or Smith. With Kopylov and Wang you already have two underdogs, so add one more at most. Never both sides of a fight, and skip McGhee in most lineups.
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Build yours in the optimizer
Open the MMA optimizer, lock your core fighters, cap McGhee's exposure, and generate. Our projections update through the afternoon, so rebuild once before lock.
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Good luck tomorrow. Reply to this email with questions, or come talk lineups in the Discord.
Salaries are DraftKings Classic prices. Projections and ownership are Seeking Optimal's, as shown in the optimizer Friday evening. Win percentages are sportsbook moneylines with the vig removed; fan percentages are community picks. Winning-lineup findings come from past DraftKings UFC Classic GPPs. Late changes happen, so check the slate before lock. Play responsibly.
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