Thursday Night Showdown Rundown
Patriots at Bears
Soldier Field · 8:15 ET · DraftKings Showdown
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Spread
CHI -3
we think it stays a one-score game
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Total
50.5
implied 26.75 / 23.75
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Weather
56°F
dry, about 6 mph wind
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What changed this week
- No Romeo Doubs. New England placed him on injured reserve, which takes a $7,000 receiver off the board and pushes more of Drake Maye's throws to A.J. Brown, with Efton Chism III stepping into the third receiver spot.
- Kyle Monangai is out again. That leaves D'Andre Swift as the Bears' primary runner, with Roschon Johnson behind him.
- Clean conditions. Mid 50s, dry and light wind at kickoff. Nothing slows down either passing game.
Our read
Two quarterbacks who can hurt you with their legs, a total north of 50 and a three-point spread. We expect points on both sides and a game that is close in the fourth quarter. Brown is the receiver we want most: he is the clear top target in New England now, and he is cheaper at captain than either quarterback.
What wins a close, high-scoring game
We study the winning lineup from every DraftKings NFL showdown. A one-score game with a total around 50 lands in our close, mid-to-high scoring bucket. Here is what those winners had in common.
| Captain position | WR 39% · RB 32% · QB 16% · TE 12%. The field has about 35% of its captains on Maye or Caleb. That is more than double the rate quarterbacks win the slot. |
| Quarterbacks | Both QBs in 46% of winners, one QB in 46%. Playing Maye and Caleb together in the FLEX is fine. |
| Team split | 3-3 and 4-2 toward the winner tie at 35%. Only 4% went 5-1, so bring the other side back. |
| Kicker and defense | A kicker in 37%, a defense in only 19%. Put your salary into the offense. |
| Thursday nights | Receivers win the captain slot more often on Thursdays than on other days, and Thursday winners run a little lower in total ownership. |
See the winners for yourself. Perfect Lineups, part of Seeking Optimal Pro, shows the winning lineup and the best possible lineup for every DraftKings contest.
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Roster construction, in order
3-3 › 4-2 Patriots › 4-2 Bears
Counts are Patriots-Bears. In a game this close, the even split comes first. Lean Patriots when Brown is your captain.
Captain board
Salary is the captain price. Proj and ceiling are our FLEX numbers; multiply by 1.5 for the captain slot.
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1. A.J. Brown (NE WR) · $13,500 · 15.8 proj, 26.9 ceiling
Our captain. With Doubs gone, the Patriots' passing game runs through him, and his ceiling matches Caleb's at $2,100 less in the captain slot. Receivers win captain most often in this game shape. About 12% captain ownership.
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2. D'Andre Swift (CHI RB) · $14,700 · 16.0 proj, 26.2 ceiling
The lead back on the favorite, with Monangai out, and he catches passes too. Running backs win captain about one time in three here. About 13% captain ownership.
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3. Luther Burden III (CHI WR) · $12,600 · 12.6 proj, 21.8 ceiling
Chicago's top receiver by price and the cheapest way to captain the Bears' passing game. About 7% captain ownership.
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4. Drake Maye (NE QB) · $15,900 · 21.9 proj, 31.7 ceiling
The best projection on the slate and a fine captain in a few lineups, but we would rather have him in the FLEX next to a Brown captain. About 18% captain ownership.
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Player board (FLEX salaries)
Orange number is our FLEX projection, then projected ownership.
Core
| QB NE Drake Maye · $10,600 · 21.9 · 60% | The top projection in the game, with rushing upside. Pairs with every Brown captain. |
| QB CHI Caleb Williams · $10,400 · 18.8 · 49% | The other running quarterback. Both QBs show up in almost half of the winners in this bucket. |
| WR NE A.J. Brown · $9,000 · 15.8 · 38% | In the FLEX if he is not your captain. We expect a big night. |
| RB CHI D'Andre Swift · $9,800 · 16.0 · 36% | Lead back on the favorite, and a pass catcher, so he works next to Caleb. |
| WR CHI Luther Burden III · $8,400 · 12.6 · 29% | Our favorite Bears bring-back when Brown is the captain. |
Value
| WR CHI Kalif Raymond · $3,400 · 6.5 · 18% | The best projection under $4,000. A couple of catches covers his price. |
| WR NE Efton Chism III · $2,800 · 5.2 · 13% | Moves up the depth chart now that Doubs is on injured reserve. |
| TE CHI Cole Kmet · $2,400 · 3.8 · 6% | Barely owned at $2,400. One red zone look and he pays off. |
| RB NE Corey Kiner · $1,400 · 3.7 · 2% | Our deep punt. Almost nobody will play him, and he frees up the salary to fit both quarterbacks with a Brown captain. |
Fades
| RB NE Rhamondre Stevenson · $7,800 · 12.5 · 32% | Nearly a third of the field for a back who shares the work with TreVeyon Henderson. Burden costs $600 more and has the higher ceiling. |
| TE NE Hunter Henry · $6,200 · 8.7 · 19% | Needs a touchdown to matter at $6,200. Chism and Kmet together cost less. |
GPP Core
Captain A.J. Brown with Drake Maye and D'Andre Swift in the FLEX: the receiver we like most, his quarterback, and the lead back on the other side. $33,900 for the three.
Finish it yourself. Add Caleb Williams or Luther Burden III as a second Bear, then fill the last spots from Raymond, Chism, Kmet and Kiner. Skip the defenses, and aim for a 3-3 or 4-2 Patriots split.
| If Chicago pulls away instead. Captain Swift or Burden, play Caleb in the FLEX, and keep two Patriots: Maye and Brown. Swift's receiving work means he does not crowd out his own quarterback. |
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Build it in two clicks
Open the NFL Showdown optimizer, click Set Game Script, and enter 27-24 Patriots. The optimizer applies the constraints from the data above. Lock Brown at captain and let it fill the rest.
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Good luck tonight. Reply to this email with questions, or come talk lineups in the Discord.
Salaries are DraftKings Showdown prices. Projections and ownership are Seeking Optimal's, as shown in the optimizer Thursday afternoon. Lines are sportsbook spreads and totals. Game-script findings come from past DraftKings NFL showdown winners. Check inactives before lock. Play responsibly.
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