Sunday Morning Showdown Rundown
Steelers vs. Saints
Stade de France, Paris · 9:30 ET · DraftKings Showdown
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Spread
PIT -3
a one-score game
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Total
44.5
implied 23.75 / 20.75
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Weather
Windy
17 mph, gusts near 35
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What to know
- It will be windy. The forecast for Saint-Denis has steady wind in the high teens and gusts in the mid 30s at kickoff, in an open-air stadium. That favors the running game and short throws over deep shots, and it makes long field goals harder.
- Pittsburgh is thin at receiver. Behind DK Metcalf and Germie Bernard, the Steelers lean on their tight ends and on Jaylen Warren out of the backfield.
- Rico Dowdle is questionable, but we expect him to play. We still see Warren as the workhorse, with Dowdle spelling him rather than splitting the work.
- An early start. The game kicks off at 9:30 ET, so this lineup locks hours before the main slate.
Our read
A three-point spread and a middling total, and then the wind. We expect a grind that runs through Warren on Pittsburgh's side, with Tyler Shough asked to make plays for a Saints team chasing a field goal. Shough is the quarterback we want in every lineup. Aaron Rodgers is nearly as popular in the FLEX and offers far less as a runner, so he is our fade.
What wins a close, middle-total game
We study the winning lineup from every DraftKings NFL showdown. A one-score game with a total in the mid 40s lands in our close, mid-scoring bucket. Here is what those winners had in common.
| Captain position | WR 39% · RB 32% · QB 16% · TE 12%. The field has about 24% of its captains on Shough or Rodgers, more than quarterbacks win. |
| Quarterbacks | One QB in 46% of winners and both in 46%. Fading Rodgers entirely is a legitimate way to be different. |
| Team split | 3-3 and 4-2 toward the winner tie at 35%. Only 4% went 5-1. |
| Kicker and defense | A kicker in 37% and a defense in 19%. In wind, both get a little more interesting, but one of each is plenty. |
| Salary | Winners averaged about $49,200, so leaving a little salary unused is normal here. |
See the winners for yourself. Perfect Lineups, part of Seeking Optimal Pro, shows the winning lineup and the best possible lineup for every DraftKings contest.
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Roster construction, in order
4-2 Steelers › 3-3 › 4-2 Saints
Counts are Steelers-Saints. Pittsburgh is the favorite and Warren is our captain, so 4-2 Steelers comes first.
Captain board
Salary is the captain price. Proj and ceiling are our FLEX numbers; multiply by 1.5 for the captain slot.
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1. Jaylen Warren (PIT RB) · $15,600 · 16.9 proj, 28.0 ceiling
Our captain. The best projection on the slate, the lead back on the favorite, and a pass catcher on a team short on receivers. Wind only helps him. About 14% captain ownership.
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2. Alvin Kamara (NO RB) · $10,500 · 7.9 proj, 13.7 ceiling
Our leverage captain. Our projection is modest, but he is under 2% captain owned, and running backs win this slot about a third of the time. If the Saints keep it on the ground in the wind, he is the one nobody has.
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3. Pat Freiermuth (PIT TE) · $8,400 · 9.3 proj, 16.9 ceiling
The short-area target on a thin receiver room, and a wind-proof profile. About 3% captain ownership.
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4. Devaughn Vele (NO WR) · $10,800 · 10.3 proj, 18.4 ceiling
The Saints' receiver we like most, and a cheaper captain than Chris Olave. About 5% captain ownership.
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Player board (FLEX salaries)
Orange number is our FLEX projection, then projected ownership.
Core
| QB NO Tyler Shough · $9,800 · 16.7 · 51% | In every lineup. He projects even with Rodgers and gives you rushing that the wind cannot take away. |
| RB PIT Jaylen Warren · $10,400 · 16.9 · 42% | If he is not your captain, he is in your FLEX. |
| TE PIT Pat Freiermuth · $5,600 · 9.3 · 24% | Pittsburgh's most reliable short target. |
| WR NO Devaughn Vele · $7,200 · 10.3 · 24% | Pairs with Shough at $4,000 less than Olave. |
Kickers and defenses
| K PIT Chris Boswell · $4,800 · 8.2 · 24% | Wind cuts both ways for kickers: stalled drives bring short field goals, but long tries get harder and coaches may go for it instead. Boswell is fine with a Warren captain, but the Steelers defense is the better way to bet on a windy, low-scoring game. |
| DST PIT Steelers · $4,400 · 7.8 · 16% | The favorite's defense, and the natural partner for a Warren captain if Pittsburgh controls the game. |
| DST NO Saints · $3,600 · 5.8 · 11% | For your Kamara captains, at $800 less. |
Value
| RB NO Kendre Miller · $5,000 · 9.6 · 26% | Projects above Kamara at $2,000 less. The cheap Saints back if you are not captaining Kamara. |
| TE PIT Darnell Washington · $4,200 · 7.5 · 20% | A second Steelers tight end gets real snaps with the receiver room this thin. |
| TE NO Noah Fant · $3,400 · 4.5 · 5% | The low-owned cheap tight end, at 5%. |
Fades
| QB PIT Aaron Rodgers · $9,000 · 16.8 · 48% | Nearly half the field, with no rushing to fall back on when the wind kills the deep ball. Our fade. |
| WR NO Chris Olave · $11,200 · 15.8 · 36% | The most expensive player on the slate, and wind hurts the deep throws he lives on. |
GPP Core
Captain Jaylen Warren with Tyler Shough and Pat Freiermuth in the FLEX: the back on the favorite, the quarterback we want in every lineup, and the tight end built for the wind. $31,000 for the three.
Finish it yourself. Add Vele for Shough, then the Steelers kicker or defense (one of each at most). If the gusts are still in the 30s Sunday morning, take the defense over the kicker. Leave Rodgers out and aim for a 4-2 Steelers split.
| If the Saints win instead. Captain Kamara, keep Shough and Vele, add the Saints defense, and play Warren in the FLEX as the bring-back. |
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Build it in two clicks
Open the NFL Showdown optimizer, click Set Game Script, and enter 24-20 Steelers. The optimizer applies the constraints from the data above. Lock Warren at captain and exclude Rodgers.
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Good luck Sunday morning. Reply to this email with questions, or come talk lineups in the Discord.
Salaries are DraftKings Showdown prices. Projections and ownership are Seeking Optimal's, as shown in the optimizer Saturday. Lines are sportsbook spreads and totals; weather is the kickoff-hour forecast. Game-script findings come from past DraftKings NFL showdown winners. Check inactives before lock. Play responsibly.
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