Thursday Night Showdown Rundown
Steelers at Browns
Huntington Bank Field · 8:15 ET · DraftKings Showdown
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Spread
PIT -2.5
a field goal
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Total
38.5
implied 20.5 / 18
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Weather
78°, dry
wind about 9 mph
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What changed this week
- Rico Dowdle is out with a toe injury, his second straight missed game. In his place last week, Jaylen Warren played 90% of the snaps against Cincinnati and finished with 127 rushing yards and 49 receiving yards. Expect the same workload tonight.
- Deshaun Watson starts for Cleveland. Dillon Gabriel is on injured reserve with a back injury. Watson has five touchdowns, one interception and 105 rushing yards through three games, and the rushing gives him a floor in a game like this.
- Cleveland's line is short two starters. Elgton Jenkins (concussion) and Teven Jenkins (back) are out, which helps the Steelers' pass rush and the Steelers DST. On the other side, Pittsburgh cornerback Joey Porter Jr. is out, a small boost for the Browns' receivers.
- Tied for the lowest total of Week 4. 38.5 points with the Steelers favored by 2.5 points. Both teams are 2-1. Thursday games have finished within one score more often than Sunday games, so plan for a close one.
- Weather is not a factor. Around 78 degrees at kickoff, dry, with a light wind.
What wins in this game script
We study the winning lineup from every DraftKings NFL showdown. A 21-17 game lands in our low-scoring, one-score bucket. Here is what those winners had in common.
| Captain position | WR 37% · RB 34% · QB 12% · TE 8% · DST 5% · K 4%. On Thursdays, WR captains have won more than any other position. |
| Captain's team | 59% from the winner, 41% from the loser. |
| Defense | Rostered in 45% of winners, and 87% of the time it was the winning team's DST. |
| Kicker | In a 38.5 total, field goals matter. |
| Quarterbacks | One QB 59% · both QBs 29% · no QB 12%. |
| Team split | 3 or 4 players from the winning team in 70% of lineups. Five from the winner 13%. |
| Salary | Winners averaged $48,900 spent, middle half $48,700 to $49,900. |
| Ownership | Total ownership averaged 244%, about 41% per slot. Chalk plus one or two pivots. |
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See the winners for yourself. Perfect Lineups, part of Seeking Optimal Pro, shows the winning lineup and the best possible lineup for every DraftKings contest.
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Roster construction, in order
4-2 Steelers › 3-3 › 2-4 Browns › 5-1 Steelers
Counts are Steelers-Browns. With a 2.5-point spread, the 3-3 build is nearly as live as 4-2, and 2-4 Browns is the Watson-carries-them script.
Captain board
Salary is the captain price. Proj and ceiling are our FLEX numbers; multiply by 1.5 for the captain slot.
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1. Jaylen Warren, RB PIT · $14,400 · 19.6 proj, 35.2 ceiling
The top projection and the top ceiling on the slate, with a full workload on the favorite. He is also the chalk: about 29% of the field will captain him. Play him at captain, just not in every lineup.
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2. DK Metcalf, WR PIT · $13,500 · 10.8 proj, 22.8 ceiling
WR is the most common winning captain in this script and on Thursdays. He has the second-highest ceiling of any non-quarterback, at under 9% captain ownership.
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3. Quinshon Judkins, RB CLE · $13,200 · 10.3 proj, 21.9 ceiling
Losing-side captains won 41% of these games, and Judkins is Cleveland's lead back with a ceiling close to Metcalf's. About 7% of the field will captain him. The banged-up line is the risk.
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4. KC Concepcion Jr., WR CLE · $9,600 · 9.4 proj, 17.5 ceiling
The best point-per-dollar of any receiver, and the cheap captain that lets you play Warren, Watson and Metcalf in the FLEX together.
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5. Harold Fannin Jr., TE CLE · $11,100 · 11.8 proj, 21.2 ceiling
Our leverage captain. He is Cleveland's top pass catcher in our numbers, ahead of every Browns receiver, at under 7% captain ownership. The risk: Pittsburgh's defense has kept tight ends quiet so far this season, and if it takes Fannin away, this captain goes nowhere. Build these lineups by hand: the game-script setting below keeps tight ends out of the captain slot.
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What about the quarterbacks? Watson is the second-highest projection on the slate and Rodgers is third, but only 12% of winners in this script had a QB captain. Play Watson in the FLEX, where more than half the field will have him, and remember that 59% of winners played just one QB.
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Player board (FLEX salaries)
Orange number is our FLEX projection, then projected ownership.
Core
| RB PIT Jaylen Warren · $9,600 · 19.6 · 57% | The workload is his with Dowdle out. The best play on the slate. |
| QB CLE Deshaun Watson · $9,400 · 16.1 · 57% | The top quarterback projection, and his legs give him a floor. |
| TE CLE Harold Fannin Jr. · $7,400 · 11.8 · 33% | Cleveland's top pass catcher in our numbers, and $600 cheaper than Denzel Boston. |
| WR CLE KC Concepcion Jr. · $6,400 · 9.4 · 20% | Nearly Denzel Boston's projection for $1,600 less. |
Mid tier
| WR PIT DK Metcalf · $9,000 · 10.8 · 34% | Pittsburgh's big-play receiver and the anchor of 4-2 Steelers builds. |
| RB CLE Quinshon Judkins · $8,800 · 10.3 · 33% | The key to 3-3 and 2-4 Browns builds. |
| WR PIT Michael Pittman Jr. · $7,000 · 8.9 · 22% | A better point-per-dollar than Metcalf, and less owned. |
| TE PIT Pat Freiermuth · $5,600 · 7.8 · 21% | The cheaper Steelers pass catcher for 4-2 and 5-1 builds. |
| K CLE Andre Szmyt · $4,600 · 7.9 · 27% | Kickers show up in 45% of winners in this script, and Szmyt is the cheaper one with the better projection. |
| K PIT Chris Boswell · $5,200 · 7.8 · 29% | The kicker for 4-2 and 5-1 Steelers builds. |
Value
| DST PIT Steelers · $5,000 · 8.8 · 25% | The best defense projection, against a line missing two starters. In this script, 87% of winners that played a defense used the winning team's. |
| DST CLE Browns · $4,800 · 8.0 · 18% | Only in Browns builds, where the defense wins the game. |
| WR PIT Roman Wilson · $4,000 · 5.7 · 16% | A 14-point ceiling at $4,000. The cheap Steelers receiver. |
| WR CLE Jerry Jeudy · $3,000 · 4.0 · 8% | Only two catches this season, but a 10.5-point ceiling at $3,000 and single-digit ownership. |
Fades
| QB PIT Aaron Rodgers · $9,800 · 13.8 · 49% | Costs $400 more than Watson and projects 2.3 fewer points. Pittsburgh's offense runs through Warren tonight. |
| WR CLE Denzel Boston · $8,000 · 9.7 · 21% | Concepcion projects about the same for $1,600 less. |
| RB CLE Raheim Sanders · $4,400 · 5.1 · 9% | Judkins' backup. The salary is better spent on Wilson or a kicker. |
Contrarian Rodgers build
We are fading Rodgers in most lineups, which is exactly why one of these belongs in a GPP portfolio. Fewer than 1 in 10 lineups will captain him. If Pittsburgh wins through the air, this build is ahead of the field that loaded up on Warren at captain.
| CPT | Aaron Rodgers, QB PIT | $14,700 |
| FLEX | Jaylen Warren, RB PIT | $9,600 |
| FLEX | Harold Fannin Jr., TE CLE | $7,400 |
| FLEX | Michael Pittman Jr., WR PIT | $7,000 |
| FLEX | Steelers DST | $5,000 |
| FLEX | Andre Szmyt, K CLE | $4,600 |
$48,300 · 77.8 projected · about 174% total ownership. A 4-2 Steelers build with one quarterback, with Pittman as the cheaper, less-owned pass catcher instead of Metcalf, and the Steelers DST against a short-handed Browns line.
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Build it in two clicks
Open the NFL Showdown optimizer, click Set Game Script, and enter 21-17 Steelers. The optimizer applies the constraints from the data above: a QB, RB or WR at captain and at least two Steelers per lineup. For a few upset builds, run it again with 21-17 Browns.
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Good luck tonight. Reply to this email with questions, or come talk lineups in the Discord.
Salaries are DraftKings Showdown prices. Projections and ownership are Seeking Optimal's, as shown in the optimizer Thursday afternoon. Lines are sportsbook spreads and totals. Weather is the kickoff-hour forecast. Game-script findings come from past DraftKings NFL showdown winners. Check inactives before lock. Play responsibly.
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