Thursday Night Showdown Rundown
Seahawks at Broncos
Denver · 8:15 ET · DraftKings Showdown
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Spread
SEA -2.5
we like Seattle in a low scorer
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Total
40.5
implied 21.5 / 19
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Weather
52°F
dry, light wind
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What changed this week
- Seattle is down two linebackers. Drake Thomas and Chazz Surratt are both out, leaving Tyrice Knight to start. The short middle of the field is softer than Seattle's season numbers suggest.
- No Zach Charbonnet. Emanuel Wilson is the lead back and has handled every Seattle red zone carry the last two weeks.
- Denver's secondary is short-handed. Talanoa Hufanga and Pat Surtain II will not play, and Riley Moss (ribs) is a game-time call.
- The total dropped from 41.5 to 40.5. Kickoff is dry and in the low 50s with little wind, so the thin air helps long field goals.
Our read
Two 3-2 teams, and we think Seattle wins a low-scoring game. The Seahawks defense has given up the fewest yards per play in the league and leads it in takeaways, and Denver's offense has struggled to score early. When drives stall at Mile High, the kickers cash in. Expect points from field goals, tight ends and short throws more than big plays.
What wins a low-scoring close game
We study the winning lineup from every DraftKings NFL showdown. A one-score game with a total around 40 lands in our low-scoring close bucket. Here is what those winners had in common.
| Captain position | WR 37% · RB 34% · QB 12% · TE 8%. Running backs take the captain slot far more often here than in shootouts. |
| Captain's team | 59% from the winner. Lean toward the side you think wins. |
| Quarterbacks | One QB 59% · both QBs 29%. You do not need Darnold and Nix together. |
| Team split | 3-3 in 36% and 4-2 toward the winner in 34%. 5-1 toward the winner 13%. |
| Kicker and defense | A kicker in 45% and a defense in 45%. In games like this one, both are real plays, not punts. |
| Salary | Middle half spent $48,725 to $49,900. |
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Roster construction, in order
4-2 Seahawks › 3-3 › 4-2 Broncos
Counts are Seahawks-Broncos. We expect Seattle to win, so 4-2 Seahawks comes first, with the even split right behind it.
Captain board
Salary is the captain price. Proj and ceiling are our FLEX numbers; multiply by 1.5 for the captain slot.
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1. Emanuel Wilson (SEA RB) · $14,100 · 13.3 proj, 25.2 ceiling
Our captain. The lead back on the team we think wins, against a Denver run defense that ranks near the bottom of the league, and he has every red zone touch lately. Running backs win captain about one time in three in close, low-scoring games. About 12% captain ownership.
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2. Seahawks (SEA DST) · $7,800 · 8.2 proj, 15.6 ceiling
A defense lands in nearly half of the winners in low-scoring close games, and Seattle's is the best on the field. Nix struggles against zone coverage, and Seattle plays zone almost every snap. About 3% captain ownership.
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3. Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA WR) · $17,400 · 21.0 proj, 34.9 ceiling
The best player in the game and the obvious captain. He is fine there, but the field agrees, so differentiate elsewhere if you use him. About 30% captain ownership.
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4. AJ Barner (SEA TE) · $6,300 · 7.8 proj, 16.5 ceiling
Denver has been one of the easier defenses for tight ends to score on. A tight end captain at $6,300 leaves room for everyone else. About 2% captain ownership.
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5. RJ Harvey (DEN RB) · $9,600 · 9.4 proj, 16.9 ceiling
Our Denver captain. Backs catch a lot of passes against Seattle, and Harvey is the checkdown in a game where Nix will throw short. About 3% captain ownership.
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Player board (FLEX salaries)
Orange number is our FLEX projection, then projected ownership.
Core
| RB SEA Emanuel Wilson · $9,400 · 13.3 · 37% | In nearly every lineup. Volume and goal line work on the winning side. |
| WR SEA Jaxon Smith-Njigba · $11,600 · 21.0 · 48% | A third of Seattle's targets go his way. Play him in the FLEX if he is not your captain. |
| QB SEA Sam Darnold · $9,800 · 14.9 · 51% | Pairs with Smith-Njigba, and Denver's missing corners help. He is the most popular player in the FLEX, so you do not need him everywhere. |
Kickers
| K SEA Jason Myers · $5,000 · 8.4 · 28% | Perfect on field goals this year with a 57-yard make. If Seattle wins a game in the 20s, he is a big part of it. |
| K DEN Wil Lutz · $5,400 · 7.8 · 26% | Denver's best path to points against this defense is three at a time. |
Tight ends and value
| TE SEA AJ Barner · $4,200 · 7.8 · 24% | Runs a route on most dropbacks and has red zone looks without a touchdown yet. Due. |
| TE DEN Evan Engram · $4,000 · 5.1 · 15% | With both Seattle linebackers out, the middle opens for Nix to throw short. Cheap and low owned. |
| RB DEN RJ Harvey · $6,400 · 9.4 · 22% | Nix's safety valve. Seattle allows a lot of catches to running backs. |
| WR SEA Cooper Kupp · $3,200 · 6.6 · 20% | A $3,200 receiver who gets red zone work. |
Fades
| QB DEN Bo Nix · $9,600 · 14.0 · 41% | He has barely run this year, and his passes travel a short distance. Against a zone defense that has held every quarterback under 200 passing yards, his ceiling is capped. |
| RB DEN J.K. Dobbins · $8,400 · 8.3 · 23% | $8,400 for a back who splits the work with Harvey and gets little in the passing game. |
GPP Core
Captain Emanuel Wilson with the Seahawks defense and Jason Myers: the back, the defense and the kicker from the team we think wins a low-scoring game. $24,300 for the three.
Finish it yourself. Add Smith-Njigba or Darnold, a tight end (Barner or Engram), and one Bronco. Land between $48,725 and $49,900 in salary.
| If Denver wins instead. Captain RJ Harvey, add Wil Lutz, the Broncos defense and Evan Engram, and keep only one or two Seahawks. Defenses in low-scoring games usually come from the winning team, so pick a side. |
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Build it in two clicks
Open the NFL Showdown optimizer, click Set Game Script, and enter 20-16 Seahawks. The optimizer applies the constraints from the data above. For your Denver builds, run it again with 20-17 Broncos.
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Good luck tonight. Reply to this email with questions, or come talk lineups in the Discord.
Salaries are DraftKings Showdown prices. Projections and ownership are Seeking Optimal's, as shown in the optimizer Thursday afternoon. Lines are sportsbook spreads and totals. Game-script findings come from past DraftKings NFL showdown winners. Check inactives before lock, especially Riley Moss. Play responsibly.
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