Sunday Night Showdown Rundown
Ravens at Falcons
Atlanta · 8:20 ET · DraftKings Showdown
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Spread
ATL -3
we like Baltimore outright
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Total
43.5
implied 23.25 / 20.25
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Weather
Indoors
roof closed in Atlanta
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What changed this week
- Lamar Jackson is out. He hurt his ankle in last week's win and never practiced. Tyler Huntley starts, and the line swung from Baltimore favored to Atlanta favored by a field goal.
- Zay Flowers should suit up. He carries a questionable tag for a sore foot, but the latest reporting says he will go. Confirm at inactives around 6:50 ET.
- Atlanta stops the run like nobody else. No team has given up fewer yards on the ground this season, which makes Derrick Henry a tougher play than his salary suggests.
- Indoors in Atlanta. No weather to worry about.
Our read
The market moved hard toward Atlanta when Lamar was ruled out. We think it moved too far. Huntley has won starts before with his legs and without turning it over, and Baltimore's defense is the better unit. We expect the Ravens to win a one-score game, with Bijan Robinson piling up yards either way.
What wins in a close game
We study the winning lineup from every DraftKings NFL showdown. A one-score game in the mid-40s lands in our back-and-forth bucket. Here is what those winners had in common.
| Captain position | WR 39% · RB 32% · QB 16% · TE 12%. |
| Captain's team | 56% from the winner. Close games split the captain slot almost evenly. |
| Quarterbacks | Both QBs 46% · one QB 46%. Playing Huntley and Penix together is as common as playing one. |
| Team split | 3-3 and 4-2 toward the winner each 35%. 5-1 almost never wins. |
| Defense and kicker | A defense in only 19% of winners, and usually the winning team's. A kicker in 37%. |
| Salary | Middle half spent $48,700 to $49,700. |
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Roster construction, in order
3-3 › 4-2 Ravens › 4-2 Falcons
Counts are Ravens-Falcons. We expect Baltimore to win a close one, which makes the even split the safest shape and 4-2 Ravens the upside play.
Captain board
Salary is the captain price. Proj and ceiling are our FLEX numbers; multiply by 1.5 for the captain slot.
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1. Tyler Huntley (BAL QB) · $13,200 · 13.4 proj, 22.5 ceiling
Our captain. If Baltimore wins, his legs are the likeliest reason: he ran for 50 to 60 yards a start last year. Quarterbacks win captain in close games about one time in six, and the field is barely using him there. About 6% captain ownership.
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2. Bijan Robinson (ATL RB) · $17,700 · 25.7 proj, 43.1 ceiling
The best player on the field and the field's favorite captain. We want him in the FLEX in every lineup, but at his captain ownership you need to be different somewhere else if you put him there. About 33% captain ownership.
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3. Drake London (ATL WR) · $14,700 · 18.8 proj, 35.5 ceiling
Baltimore has given up big receiving games all season, and he is Penix's top target. About 16% captain ownership.
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4. Derrick Henry (BAL RB) · $16,500 · 17.6 proj, 30.6 ceiling
Volume on the team we think wins, but he faces the stingiest run defense around. A captain shot for the field to have, not for us to lead with. About 11% captain ownership.
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5. Falcons (ATL DST) · $6,000 · 7.8 proj, 14.4 ceiling
The contrarian build if you think Atlanta wins. The Falcons get pressure on the quarterback without blitzing, and almost nobody will captain a defense. About 3% captain ownership.
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Player board (FLEX salaries)
Orange number is our FLEX projection, then projected ownership.
Core
| RB ATL Bijan Robinson · $11,800 · 25.7 · 60% | In every lineup. Even a Ravens win can include a big Bijan game, and nobody else on the slate has his ceiling. |
| QB BAL Tyler Huntley · $8,800 · 13.4 · 36% | Cheaper than Penix with rushing upside. A necessary piece in Ravens builds. |
| QB ATL Michael Penix Jr. · $9,400 · 15.2 · 34% | Both quarterbacks show up in close-game winners as often as one does. Pair him with Huntley. |
| RB BAL Derrick Henry · $11,000 · 17.6 · 41% | Fine in the FLEX if Baltimore leans on him, but the matchup caps his ceiling. |
Value
| TE ATL Austin Hooper · $1,600 · 2.8 · 6% | A $1,600 tight end who scored two weeks ago. He mostly blocks, so it is a touchdown or nothing, but at this price that is the point. |
| TE BAL Mark Andrews · $6,400 · 9.2 · 28% | Huntley's security blanket if Flowers is limited. |
| RB BAL Justice Hill · $3,200 · 5.2 · 12% | Baltimore's pass-catching back at $3,200. |
Fades
| DST Ravens · $4,400 · 5.9 · 11% | Missing Trey Hendrickson up front, and Atlanta has the better offense on paper. |
| RB ATL Brian Robinson Jr. · $5,800 · 5.6 · 12% | Bijan takes almost every meaningful touch. Not enough left over at $5,800. |
GPP Core
Captain Tyler Huntley with Bijan Robinson and Michael Penix Jr.: the quarterback we think wins the game at captain, the best player on the field, and the other quarterback. $34,400 for the three.
Finish it yourself. Add a Raven or two (Henry, Flowers or Andrews) and Austin Hooper as your cheap piece. Land between $48,700 and $49,700 in salary.
| The contrarian defensive build. If you think Atlanta wins instead, flip it: captain the Falcons defense, play Bijan, Drake London and Penix, and leave the Ravens skill players out. Winning defenses usually come from the winning team, so only build it if you buy the Atlanta win. |
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Build it in two clicks
Open the NFL Showdown optimizer, click Set Game Script, and enter 24-20 Ravens. The optimizer applies the constraints from the data above. For your Falcons builds, run it again with 24-20 Falcons.
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Good luck tonight. Reply to this email with questions, or come talk lineups in the Discord.
Salaries are DraftKings Showdown prices. Projections and ownership are Seeking Optimal's, as shown in the optimizer Sunday afternoon. Lines are sportsbook spreads and totals. Game-script findings come from past DraftKings NFL showdown winners. Check inactives before lock. Play responsibly.
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