PGA DFS Rundown
Griffin Defends in Cabo
World Wide Technology Championship · El Cardonal at Diamante · DraftKings Classic · locks Thursday 8:30 AM ET
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Course
Par 72
7,452 yards, wide fairways
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Winning score
24+ under
24 to 29 under here
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Waves
Thu PM
small edge, Thu PM/Fri AM
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Why this week is different
It's a shootout in Cabo. El Cardonal is Tiger Woods' first course design, set on the Pacific side of Los Cabos, and in three years the winner has finished 27, 24 and 29 under. The fairways are very wide and the only real defense is the wind off the ocean, so you need golfers who make a lot of birdies, not golfers who avoid bogeys.
- Birdies over safety. Almost everyone in the field can make the cut on a course this easy. What separates finishes is who goes 25 under instead of 18 under, so we value top-10 odds over make-cut odds in tournaments.
- Course history is short. The event moved here from Mayakoba in 2023, so nobody has more than three trips here. We count what history there is (Griffin, Välimäki, Higgo and Eckroat have all played well here) but our model and current form carry more weight.
- A weak field at the top. This is a fall event and most of the big names are resting. The top of the price list is thin, which is why Griffin is so popular and why a mid-priced golfer like Seamus Power can rank second in our model.
Weather and waves
Wind is the one thing that can slow scoring down here, and it picks up in the afternoon. Thursday looks like about 8 mph in the morning and 11 mph in the afternoon. Friday is breezier: about 9 mph in the morning and 14 mph in the afternoon, the windiest window of the first two rounds.
| Our wave call: golfers who tee off Thursday afternoon play Friday morning, which skips the windy Friday afternoon. Averaged across both days, that draw sees about 1 mph less wind. It's a small edge, so build most GPP lineups on the Thursday afternoon wave and keep some on the morning wave in case the forecast changes. Stack one wave per lineup. Griffin, Benjamin James, Power, Silverman, Blair and Eckroat all tee off Thursday afternoon. |
What wins in PGA tournaments
These numbers come from Seeking Optimal Pro. We pull the winning DraftKings lineup from every PGA event. Here is how the winners were built.
| Ownership | Median total ownership was 84%. A winning lineup usually has a couple of popular golfers in it. |
| Top of the board | 70% had a $10,000 golfer and 65% had two golfers at $9,000 or more. |
| A dart | 71% had a golfer under $7,000, and 52% had one under 5% owned. |
| Salary | Median $100 left. Use the whole cap. |
| Here last year | The winning lineup was built around Griffin at $10,500 with Välimäki at $7,000. Both are on the board again this week. |
| See every winner yourself with Pro. Perfect Lineups shows the winning lineup and the best possible lineup for every DraftKings contest. Seeking Optimal is in Alpha, and Pro is 50% off while it lasts. See Pro pricing |
Player board
Salary, our projection, our ownership.
Top of the board ($9K+)
| Ben Griffin · $10,000 · 92.0 · 23% | The defending champion. He won here last year at 29 under, the tournament record, and he's number one in our model with the best top-10 odds in the field. He's also the most popular golfer on the slate. Play him in cash and in tournaments. |
| Ryan Gerard · $10,200 · 91.5 · 21% | Projects within a point of Griffin and tees off Thursday morning. He's the $10,000 golfer for your lineups built on the other wave. |
| Benjamin James · $9,900 · 89.3 · 20% | Third in our projections and in the Thursday afternoon wave with Griffin. The easiest second $9,000 golfer for a Griffin build. |
| Blades Brown · $9,500 · 81.9 · 16% | A cash play. Strong make-cut odds and a projection that leads everyone between $9,000 and $9,800. Our model ranks him lower than his price, so he's less of a tournament play. |
| Harry Hall · $9,400 · 81.2 · 11% | Eighth in our model, but only the 15th-most popular golfer. The best leverage in the $9,000 range. |
| Jackson Suber · $9,200 · 78.2 · 14% | Third in our model and 11th here last year. A tournament play for the Thursday morning wave. |
| Kris Ventura · $9,000 · 77.8 · 12% | Fourth in our model at the bottom of the $9,000 range. He pairs with Suber on the morning side. |
Mid range ($7K to $9K)
| Seamus Power · $8,100 · 75.1 · 11% | Second in our model, but only the 19th-highest salary, and about 11% owned. He tees off Thursday afternoon. In our GPP core. |
| Jordan L. Smith · $8,300 · 80.3 · 12% | Projects with the $9,000 golfers at $8,300, and he's in the afternoon wave. |
| Christiaan Bezuidenhout · $7,900 · 80.8 · 15% | Seventh in our projections at $7,900, with one of the best course-fit scores in the field. Our favorite cash value. |
| Zachary Bauchou · $7,800 · 79.4 · 15% | Ninth in our projections at $7,800 with strong make-cut odds. A good cash play, but he's one of the seven most popular golfers in the field, so he's less useful in tournaments. |
| Sami Välimäki · $7,700 · 73.3 · 10% | Finished second here last year at 27 under, and he's seventh in our model. At about 10% owned, he's our favorite tournament play between $7,000 and $8,000. |
| Austin Eckroat · $7,500 · 73.5 · 10% | Won here in 2024. Our model has him 27th, and he's in the afternoon wave. |
| Rico Hoey · $7,600 · 72.9 · 5% | 21st here last year and about 5% owned. A low-owned tournament play for morning-wave lineups. |
| Luke Clanton · $7,400 · 70.8 · 10% | 15th in our model at $7,400. He's priced fairly, so he isn't a value or a fade. |
Tournament darts
| Zac Blair · $7,200 · 73.7 · 6% | Third-best course fit in the field and 26th in our projections at $7,200, about 6% owned. He hasn't finished better than 45th here, and that history keeps the field off him. |
| Kevin Roy · $7,300 · 73.1 · 6% | A strong value by points per $1,000, but he missed the cut in both trips here. Tournaments only. |
| Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen · $7,500 · 73.5 · 8% | Projects with the $7,500 golfers, but our model has him only 55th. Tournaments only. |
| Sudarshan Yellamaraju · $7,400 · 69.8 · 4% | About 4% owned at $7,400 and in the afternoon wave. An easy dart under 5%. |
| Garrick Higgo · $7,100 · 62.8 · 8% | Sixth here in 2024 and fourth last year. Nobody in the field with two starts here has gained more strokes per round. Our model doesn't like his current form, so he's a tournament play only. |
| Ben Silverman · $6,700 · 70.4 · 7% | Eleventh in our model at $6,700, and one of the two best values on the board by points per $1,000. We thought he might get too popular to play, but he's about 7% owned, so he's in our GPP core. |
| Emiliano Grillo · $6,900 · 69.1 · 5% | About 5% owned at $6,900, with a good course-fit score. |
| Matt Kuchar · $6,600 · 64.2 · 3% | Eleventh here last year and the fifth-best course fit in the field, at about 3% owned. |
| Dylan Wu · $6,500 · 62.5 · 1% | Finished 14th here in 2024, ranks well ahead of his salary in our model, and is about 1% owned. |
| Isaiah Salinda · $6,700 · 61.6 · 1% | About 1% owned. He missed the cut here last year. For big fields only. |
Fades
| Jackson Koivun · $10,400 · 87.1 · 17% | The most expensive golfer in the field and the fourth most popular. He's 13th in our model, and Griffin projects five points higher for $400 less. |
| Keith Mitchell · $9,600 · 79.1 · 9% | 33rd in our model and one of the worst course-fit scores among the $9,000 golfers. His best finish here is 63rd. |
| Trace Crowe · $7,700 · 71.9 · 13% | The 10th-most popular golfer, and he missed the cut in his only start here. Välimäki costs the same and ranks well ahead of him in our model. |
| Stephan Jaeger · $7,900 · 71.7 · 8% | We wanted to like him, but our model ranks him 56th and he missed the cut here last year. Bezuidenhout costs the same and projects about nine points higher. |
Cash Core
Ben Griffin, Blades Brown and Christiaan Bezuidenhout: our model's top golfer and the defending champion, the most reliable $9,000 golfer on the board, and our favorite cash value. $27,400 for the three. Zachary Bauchou is a good fourth.
GPP Core
Ben Griffin, Seamus Power and Ben Silverman: the first, second and eleventh golfers in our model, all in the Thursday afternoon wave. $24,800 and about 41% combined ownership for the three, so eating Griffin's ownership still leaves you different.
Finish it yourself:
- Stay in the Thursday afternoon wave for the last three spots.
- Add a second $9,000 golfer. Benjamin James is the afternoon option and our third-best projection. Skip Koivun.
- Fill the last two spots from the afternoon $7,000s: Eckroat, Blair, Clanton, Neergaard-Petersen, Roy or Yellamaraju. Make one of them Yellamaraju or another golfer under 5% owned.
- Your lineup should land around 75 to 85% total ownership. That's right around what usually wins. Use as much of the cap as you can; these builds land within $700 of it.
- For your morning-wave lineups, start from Ryan Gerard and Sami Välimäki, add Suber, Hall or Ventura, and use Rico Hoey, Matt Kuchar and Dylan Wu as darts.
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Build yours in the optimizer
Open the PGA optimizer, lock your core, and let it fill the rest from our projections and ownership.
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Good luck this week. Reply to this email with questions, or come talk lineups in the Discord.
Salaries are DraftKings Classic prices. Projections, model rankings and ownership are Seeking Optimal's, as shown in the optimizer Wednesday afternoon. Lineup findings come from past DraftKings PGA contests. Check withdrawals before lock. Play responsibly.
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