Thursday Night Showdown Rundown
Panthers at Packers
Lambeau Field · 8:15 ET · DraftKings Showdown
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Spread
GB -3.5
we think it stays a one-score game
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Total
46.5
implied 25 / 21.5
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Weather
48°F
dry, about 6 mph wind
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What changed this week
- Matthew Golden is a game-time call. He's questionable with shoulder and foot injuries and only got in a limited walkthrough Wednesday, though Green Bay expects him to play. Inactives come out around 6:45 ET. If he sits, Savion Williams moves into the starting lineup and about 36% ownership has to go somewhere else.
- Jalen Coker is cleared. He practiced in full all week and came off the injury report, so the shoulder shouldn't limit him.
- Carolina's secondary is thin. Jaycee Horn and fellow starting corner Mike Jackson are both on injured reserve, and their replacement, Akayleb Evans, is out too. Edge rusher Jaelan Phillips is also out, so Love should have time to throw.
- Both lines are banged up. Carolina lost right tackle Taylor Moton for the season and is without guard Damien Lewis. Green Bay is missing linebackers Edgerrin Cooper and Zaire Franklin, plus guard Sean Rhyan.
- Josh Jacobs has one game back. He returned last week and touched the ball 18 times, but most of it came through the air: 5 catches for 55 yards and a score, next to 36 yards on 11 carries.
- Cold but clean. High 40s at kickoff, dry, light wind. Nothing here slows the passing games down.
Our read
We're above the market on this one. Both quarterbacks have weapons, neither defense has given us a reason to trust it, and we expect a back-and-forth game that Green Bay edges late. Our call is Packers 28-24. Love has the best matchup on the board, throwing at a cornerback room down to its backups, which is why Christian Watson is our captain. Tucker Kraft rounds out the Packers side. For Carolina we like Bryce Young throwing to Tetairoa McMillan and Coker, and Chuba Hubbard running at a Packers defense without two starting linebackers. Tommy Tremble and John Metchie III are the cheap pieces.
The Jacobs decision
Every lineup tonight starts with one question: are you playing Josh Jacobs? Green Bay has the worst rushing attack in the league, under 60 yards a game at 2.9 yards a carry. Carolina has the worst run defense, allowing over 150 a game at more than 5 a carry. Something has to give.
We lean fade. The Packers haven't run the ball well against anyone, MarShawn Lloyd still takes some of the work, the line is without Rhyan, and last week's receiving line is hard to count on again. He's 38% owned in the FLEX, so leaving him out of most lineups gets you a lot of leverage. Most of Green Bay's bad rushing numbers came while he was away, though, so don't fade him everywhere. Captain him in a few lineups as the hedge. If the matchup finally gets the Packers' run game going, he's the one who benefits, and you'll have him at the top of the lineup.
What wins a close shootout
We study the winning lineup from every DraftKings NFL showdown. Our 28-24 call lands in the shootout, one-score game bucket. Here is what those winners had in common.
| Captain position | WR 36% · QB 26% · RB 21% · TE 17%. Tight ends win the captain slot about one time in six in this game shape, but the field has under 8% of its captains on one. |
| Quarterbacks | Both QBs in 54% of winners, one QB in 40%. Play Love and Young together. |
| Team split | 3-3 in 56% of winners, 4-2 toward the winner in 21%. Only 3% went 5-1. |
| Kicker and defense | A kicker in 39%, a defense in only 8%. Skip the defenses tonight. |
| Thursday nights | Receivers win captain 40% of the time on Thursdays, more often than on other days, and Thursday winners run lower in total ownership. |
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Roster construction, in order
3-3 › 4-2 Packers › 4-2 Panthers
Counts are Packers-Panthers. In a close shootout the even split wins most often, so that comes first. Go 4-2 Packers in your Jacobs captain lineups.
Captain board
Salary is the captain price. Proj and ceiling are our FLEX numbers; multiply by 1.5 for the captain slot.
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1. Christian Watson (GB WR) · $14,700 · 15.3 proj, 26.5 ceiling
Our captain. The Packers' deep threat on the team we expect to win, and the lowest captain ownership of the four big-name receivers. Receivers win captain even more often on Thursdays. About 8% captain ownership.
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2. Tetairoa McMillan (CAR WR) · $14,100 · 15.9 proj, 27.3 ceiling
The highest ceiling of any receiver tonight and the top of Carolina's passing game. If Carolina is the team that wins the shootout, this is the captain. About 10% captain ownership.
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3. Chuba Hubbard (CAR RB) · $13,500 · 16.4 proj, 26.8 ceiling
Our Carolina captain. He's on the field for every down and has a receiving role, so he works with Young in the FLEX, and Green Bay's missing linebackers leave room for him between the tackles. About 12% captain ownership.
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4. Tucker Kraft (GB TE) · $11,100 · 11.4 proj, 20.3 ceiling
Our leverage captain. Tight ends win the slot about one time in six in this game shape, and the field has him under 6%. The $11,100 price also fits both quarterbacks and McMillan in the FLEX.
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5. Josh Jacobs (GB RB) · $13,200 · 16.2 proj, 27.0 ceiling
The hedge. If you fade him in most lineups, this is where he goes in the rest. About 11% captain ownership.
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Not at captain: Bryce Young. He's about 10% of the field's captains, but he's an underdog pocket passer playing behind a patched line. We want him in the FLEX, throwing to whoever is our captain.
Player board (FLEX salaries)
Orange number is our FLEX projection, then projected ownership.
Core
| QB CAR Bryce Young · $9,600 · 18.2 · 47% | The top projection on the slate, and $400 cheaper than Love. In almost every lineup. |
| QB GB Jordan Love · $10,000 · 17.1 · 46% | At home against a defense that hasn't stopped anyone. Pair him with Young. |
| WR CAR Tetairoa McMillan · $9,400 · 15.9 · 39% | Carolina's alpha. Could have a big game. |
| WR GB Christian Watson · $9,800 · 15.3 · 30% | In the FLEX when he isn't your captain. Gets even more targets if Golden sits. |
| WR CAR Jalen Coker · $7,800 · 14.9 · 32% | Nearly McMillan's projection for $1,600 less. Full practices all week, so the shoulder looks fine. |
| TE GB Tucker Kraft · $7,400 · 11.4 · 30% | Great at captain, solid in the FLEX. If Golden sits, he and Watson soak up the extra targets. |
| RB CAR Chuba Hubbard · $9,000 · 16.4 · 39% | A three-down runner with a receiving role, facing a defense without two starting linebackers. Popular, but the role earns it. |
Value
| WR GB Savion Williams · $4,400 · 6.1 · 16% | The best projection of any skill player under $5,000, and he starts if Golden can't go. |
| WR CAR John Metchie III · $3,400 · 4.4 · 9% | Carolina's third receiver, and under 10% owned. A cheap way into the Panthers' passing game. |
| TE CAR Tommy Tremble · $2,600 · 4.7 · 13% | Our favorite punt. He projects higher than Metchie for $800 less. |
| WR GB Bo Melton · $1,000 · 1.8 · 4% | Only if Golden is inactive. Then he's the third receiver for $1,000. |
Fades
| TE CAR Darren Waller · $5,400 · 7.0 · 13% | Owned as much as Tremble at more than twice the price. Take the $2,800 savings. |
| DST GB Packers · $4,000 · 7.2 · 19% | Nearly a fifth of the field, in a game shape where defenses almost never make the winning lineup. |
GPP Core
Captain Christian Watson with Jordan Love and Bryce Young in the FLEX: the receiver we like most on the team we expect to win, plus both quarterbacks. $34,300 for the three.
Finish it yourself. Add McMillan, Coker or Kraft, then fill the last two spots from Tremble, Metchie and Savion Williams (with McMillan, it's Tremble and Metchie). Leave Jacobs and the defenses out, and aim for 3-3.
In the largest contests, plenty of the room will play both quarterbacks too, so make the other spots different and don't force the last $1,000 or $1,500 of salary. Leaving money unspent is an easy way to avoid sharing your lineup.
The Jacobs hedge. Captain Jacobs, play both quarterbacks in the FLEX, and add McMillan or Coker as the bring-back. If the run game finally shows up, these lineups pay off and the field's FLEX Jacobs lineups trail you.
The Carolina build. Captain Hubbard with Young and Love in the FLEX, plus McMillan. That's $42,500 for the four, with room for Tremble and Savion Williams.
The leverage build. Captain Kraft with Love, Young and McMillan in the FLEX. The four cost $40,100, which leaves room for Coker and a sixth at $2,100 or less. |
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Build it in two clicks
Open the NFL Showdown optimizer, click Set Game Script, and enter 28-24 Packers. The optimizer applies the constraints from the data above. Lock Watson at captain and let it fill the rest.
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Good luck tonight. Reply to this email with questions, or come talk lineups in the Discord.
Salaries are DraftKings Showdown prices. Projections and ownership are Seeking Optimal's, as shown in the optimizer Thursday morning. Lines are sportsbook spreads and totals. Game-script findings come from past DraftKings NFL showdown winners. Check inactives before lock. Play responsibly.
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