NHL Main Slate Rundown
Vegas Sets the Pace
Friday's 4-game slate · DraftKings Classic · locks 7:00 ET
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Top offense
VGK 3.7
implied goals vs ANA
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Best goalie spot
Oettinger
63% to win, 13% owned
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Value goalie
Hofer
cheapest starter, $7,100
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The slate
Implied goals split each game total by the market's win odds. Times are Eastern.
| Game | Time | Total | Implied goals | Home win |
| WSH @ CAR | 7:00 | 6 | WSH 2.8 · CAR 3.2 | CAR 57% |
| BOS @ WPG | 8:00 | 5.5 | BOS 2.7 · WPG 2.8 | WPG 53% |
| STL @ DAL | 9:00 | 6 | STL 2.6 · DAL 3.4 | DAL 63% |
| ANA @ VGK | 10:00 | 6.5 | ANA 2.8 · VGK 3.7 | VGK 64% |
Anaheim at Vegas has the highest total on the slate (6.5), and the Golden Knights project for 3.7 goals, the most of any team. Dallas is the other big favorite at home against St. Louis. Boston at Winnipeg is the lowest total and close to a coin flip.
Goalies
Every starter is confirmed. The shots number is the market's saves line.
Our goalie board
| G DAL Jake Oettinger · $8,300 · 15.8 · 13% | The top goalie projection on the slate, on a 63% home favorite facing St. Louis' 2.6 implied goals. |
| G VGK Carter Hart · $8,100 · 15.3 · 16% | Vegas is the biggest favorite on the slate (64%). He projects about half a point behind Oettinger and is a little more popular. |
| G CAR Brandon Bussi · $8,000 · 14.1 · 10% | Carolina is 57% to win at home, and he is the least owned of the three biggest favorites' goalies. |
Value goalie
| G STL Joel Hofer · $7,100 · 8.8 · 18% | The cheapest confirmed starter, and the market has him at 25.5 saves, one of the highest saves lines on the slate. Dallas will shoot plenty, and every save is 0.7 points. The $1,200 he saves you compared with Oettinger is the difference between a Vegas line stack and a cheaper one. The risk: St. Louis is a 37% underdog, and he will not be a secret. |
Fade
| G ANA Lukas Dostal · $7,300 · 12.5 · 16% | Nearly as popular as Carter Hart, but he faces the slate's best offense (3.7 implied goals), on the biggest underdog (36% to win). |
Stacks we like
Line stacks pair a center with his wingers. Power-play stacks add the defenseman who runs the unit.
1. Golden Knights Line 1 Jack Eichel, Mark Stone, Ivan Barbashev · $19,700 · 45.9 proj · 60% combined ownership The best line on the slate in the best spot. It will be the chalk, and on a 4-game slate that is fine: winners on slates this size carry far more ownership than on a full night. |
2. Golden Knights Line 3 Trevor Connelly, Tomas Hertl, Victor Olofsson · $12,500 · 31.9 proj · 32% combined ownership The cheap way into Vegas. Hertl plays on the top power play, and Trevor Connelly is the best point-per-dollar skater on the slate. |
3. Stars Line 2 Jason Robertson, Roope Hintz, Tyler Seguin · $15,800 · 31.4 proj · 18% combined ownership Our leverage stack. It projects close to Dallas' top line for less ownership, with Robertson and Hintz both on the first power play. Not with Hofer, who faces them. |
4. Bruins Line 1 David Pastrnak, JJ Peterka, Elias Lindholm · $16,700 · 28.8 proj · 39% combined ownership Pastrnak with JJ Peterka and Elias Lindholm. Pastrnak and Peterka share the top power play too, and Peterka and Lindholm cost under $5,000 each. |
Power-play stacks
Golden Knights PP1 Jack Eichel, Mark Stone, Tomas Hertl, Shea Theodore, Mitch Marner · $32,400 · 69.8 proj · 97% combined ownership The best unit on the slate, and nearly 100% combined ownership. Take two or three of these, not all five. |
Stars PP2 Thomas Harley, Justin Hryckowian, Jamie Benn, Esa Lindell, Tyler Seguin · $17,600 · 40.2 proj · 18% combined ownership The contrarian play. The cheapest unit we like, with Thomas Harley on the top pair, at under a fifth of the Vegas unit's ownership. |
Player board
Orange number is our projection, then projected ownership. Salaries are DraftKings Classic.
Core
| C VGK Jack Eichel · $8,100 · 19.9 · 30% | The highest projection on the slate by almost five points, on the best line and the top power play. |
| W VGK Mark Stone · $6,700 · 15.0 · 16% | Eichel's linemate on both units, the best-projected winger on the slate. |
| D VGK Rasmus Andersson · $4,700 · 12.5 · 8% | The top defenseman projection on the slate at $4,700, and 8% owned. |
Value
| W BOS JJ Peterka · $4,800 · 8.6 · 11% | Too cheap for David Pastrnak's wing. He plays with Pastrnak on Boston's top line and top power play, for $3,200 less, and projects for more points per dollar. |
| W VGK Trevor Connelly · $3,600 · 12.4 · 6% | The best point-per-dollar skater on the slate, on Vegas' third line and second power play. |
| D STL Philip Broberg · $3,900 · 5.3 · 6% | A value defenseman on the Blues' top power play, at $3,900 and 6% owned. |
| D DAL Thomas Harley · $4,100 · 10.4 · 6% | Dallas' top pair at $4,100, and he runs the second power play. |
Leverage
| C DAL Wyatt Johnston · $6,400 · 14.0 · 12% | Tied for the best anytime-goal odds on the slate, on Dallas' top line, at 12% owned. |
| W DAL Jason Robertson · $7,600 · 15.0 · 14% | The second-best winger projection on the slate and one of four skaters the market has at 3.5 shots, less owned than Pastrnak. |
| C DAL Roope Hintz · $4,700 · 9.7 · 2% | On Dallas' top power play at $4,700, and barely owned. |
Fades
| W WPG Kyle Connor · $7,700 · 11.0 · 22% | One of the most popular wingers on the slate, in the lowest-total game, and he projects below Mark Stone for $1,000 more. |
| C WPG Mark Scheifele · $7,000 · 9.6 · 19% | $7,000 and 19% owned, but Tomas Hertl projects more than two points higher for $1,900 less. |
| C ANA Leo Carlsson · $6,200 · 8.2 · 18% | 18% owned at $6,200, but Roope Hintz projects higher for $1,500 less. |
| D ANA Jackson LaCombe · $5,000 · 8.4 · 15% | One of the most popular defensemen, but Rasmus Andersson projects four points higher for $300 less. |
What wins NHL GPPs
We studied the winning lineups from big DraftKings NHL Classic tournaments on 4 and 5 game slates like tonight's. Here is what they had in common.
| Stack shape | 4-3-1 29% · 3-3-1-1 14% · 4-2-1-1 8%. A 4-3-1 is four skaters from one team, three from a second and one from a third. 51% of winners used exactly three teams. |
| Goalie | Only 21% took their goalie from the main stack's team, and 89% had no skater facing their own goalie. Pick the best goalie spot, not the one that matches your stack. |
| Ownership | Median total ownership was 107%, about 12% per player. On a slate this size, the chalk Vegas stack plus a less popular second stack is a normal winning shape. |
| Salary | Median spend $49,900. Use the whole cap. |
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Build yours in the optimizer
Open the NHL optimizer, lock your line stack and goalie, and set Max Player vs Goalie to 0 so no skater faces your goalie. The Line column shows each skater's line and power-play unit, and goalies are marked Confirmed or Probable as teams announce.
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Good luck tonight. Reply to this email with questions, or come talk lineups in the Discord.
Salaries are DraftKings Classic prices. Projections, lines and ownership are Seeking Optimal's, as shown in the optimizer Friday afternoon. Win odds, totals, shots and saves lines are sportsbook numbers. Confirm goalies before lock. Play responsibly.
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