NHL Main Slate Rundown
Back the Blues, Crash the Jackets
Tuesday's 11-game slate · DraftKings Classic · locks 7:00 ET
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Top stack
Blues
19th in team ownership
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Game to target
COL @ CBJ
over 6.5, Columbus side
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Winners' ownership
~46%
total, on slates this size
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Eleven games make up tonight's DraftKings Classic main slate, and it locks at 7:00 ET. The contest we are building for is the $20 NHL $100K Overload: 5,882 entries, 150 max per person, and $20,000 to first. That is a fifth of the prize pool going to one lineup, so finishing 30th does not help much. You need the one team that explodes, and you need it at an ownership most of the room skipped. We like the Blues to win in New York, we think Colorado and Columbus fly over 6.5, and the field has both the Blues and the Blue Jackets in its bottom third.
What wins the $20 Overload
We looked at winning lineups and the top 1% from DraftKings NHL tournaments that look like this one: $3 to $25 entry, a few thousand to tens of thousands of entries, on 11- and 12-game slates. The top 1% and the winners looked the same.
| Do winners stack? | Yes. 95% had at least three skaters from one team. Four from one team in 52%, three in 28%, five in 15%. | | Stack shape | 4-3-1 in 40% · 3-3-1-1 in 16% · 5-2-1 in 11%. 59% used exactly three teams for their skaters. | | In the $20 Overloads | 4-3-1 won 48% of the time, and 57% had a four-skater main stack. Only 14% took the goalie from that stack. | | Which team | In 47%, the main stack came from a team outside the eight most popular. Only 23% stacked one of the three most popular teams. | | Ownership | Median total ownership about 46%, with the middle half between 22% and 67%. The average lineup in the field sits around 58%. | | Low-owned spots | The typical winner had 6 players under 5% owned. | | Goalie | About one winner in 4 took the goalie from the main stack, and the winning goalie was usually about 4% owned. | | Defense and salary | Two defensemen in 96%. Most spent between $49,800 and $50,000. |
| How much to stack. On a slate this big, the best possible lineup is a scattered pile of one-off big nights that nobody can predict. Winners did not get there that way. They picked a team, took four of its skaters, added three from a second team and one more player, and hoped their team was the one that blew up. So stack in every lineup, and in a 150-max contest spread those stacks across several teams instead of firing 150 versions of one. Nobody tonight projects for 20% ownership (MacKinnon is the top skater at 16%), so ownership is about the whole lineup. Aim for something around 40% to 55% total. |
The slate
Implied goals split each game total by the market's win odds. Times are Eastern.
| Game | Time | Total | Implied goals | Our lean | | COL @ CBJ | 7:00 | 6.5 | COL 3.33 · CBJ 3.17 | Over. Target it | | DAL @ WSH | 7:00 | 5.5 | DAL 2.71 · WSH 2.79 | Washington side | | DET @ TBL | 7:00 | 6 | DET 2.30 · TBL 3.70 | Light exposure | | MIN @ PHI | 7:00 | 6 | MIN 3.38 · PHI 2.62 | Fine | | STL @ NYR | 7:00 | 6 | STL 2.91 · NYR 3.09 | Blues win | | UTA @ TOR | 7:00 | 6.5 | UTA 3.45 · TOR 3.05 | Over | | VGK @ PIT | 7:00 | 6.5 | VGK 3.20 · PIT 3.30 | Under | | WPG @ MTL | 7:00 | 6 | WPG 2.67 · MTL 3.33 | Over | | EDM @ NJD | 7:30 | 6 | EDM 2.72 · NJD 3.28 | Devils side | | CAR @ NSH | 8:00 | 6 | CAR 3.46 · NSH 2.54 | Under | | ANA @ VAN | 9:00 | 7 | ANA 3.81 · VAN 3.19 | No Canucks |
Colorado is the most popular team in the field, and Columbus is 17th. Same game, same 6.5 total, at a fraction of the ownership. The Blues are 19th, Washington is 13th, and Winnipeg is dead last. On the other side, Pittsburgh is 5th and Carolina is 7th in team ownership, and both play in games we like to go under.
Goalies
All four of our goalies cost $8,000 or less, so you keep money for stacks. Winners usually played a goalie around 4% owned, and three of these four are in that range.
Our goalies
| G NJD Connor Hellebuyck · $8,000 · 11.7 · 9% | The safest of the four. New Jersey is a 59% home favorite against Edmonton, and he keeps you off McDavid by default. Also the most popular of our four. | | G STL Joel Hofer · $7,600 · 7.8 · 3% | The Blues call. If St. Louis wins in New York, the win bonus does most of the work at $7,600 and 3% owned. Our projection is cautious, and that is exactly why the room is not on him. | | G NSH Juuse Saros · $7,000 · 10.1 · 5% | The cheapest of the four, and Carolina shoots as much as anyone. His saves line of 27.5 is tied for second highest on the slate, and we like this game to stay under 6.0. He does not need a win to pay off at $7,000. | | G VGK Adin Hill · $7,500 · 8.6 · 3% | Vegas and Pittsburgh is a game we like under its 6.5. $7,500 and 3% owned. He is listed as probable, so confirm him before lock. |
Fade
| G TOR Sergei Bobrovsky · $7,500 · 9.1 · 2% | Utah has the fourth-most implied goals on the slate and the top power-play stack by projection. We would rather be stacking Utah than playing the goalie facing them. |
Kochetkov is the most popular goalie at 10%. If you want a Carolina-Nashville goalie, Saros is the cheaper side of the same under.
Stacks we like
Power-play stacks group the skaters who stay on the ice together when their team is up a man.
1. Blues power play Mason McTavish, Jimmy Snuggerud, Philip Broberg, Jake Neighbours, Robert Thomas · $23,600 · 43.8 proj · 20% combined ownership Our top stack. We like St. Louis to win this game, and the field has the Blues 19th in team ownership. The whole unit costs $23,600, which leaves room for a pricey second stack. | 2. Blue Jackets power play Kent Johnson, Zach Werenski, Adam Fantilli, Matthew Knies, Charlie Coyle · $25,100 · 41.5 proj · 22% combined ownership Our game to attack. Colorado draws the crowd in this one. Columbus has 3.17 implied goals of its own at a fraction of the ownership. If you want a piece of Colorado too, its second power play (Lehkonen, Toews, Schwartz) is the low-owned way in. | 3. Utah power play Nick Schmaltz, Clayton Keller, Mikhail Sergachev, Dylan Guenther, Logan Cooley · $29,700 · 68.0 proj · 37% combined ownership The best projection of any stack on the slate, in a game we like over 6.5. Utah is more popular (6th in team ownership), so it fits lineups where the rest of the build is low owned. Utah's second unit sits at 6% combined if you want the same game for less. |
Secondary stacks: Washington's top power play (22% combined) over Dallas, and Montreal's (25% combined) in a Winnipeg game we like over. Both work as the three-man piece of a 4-3-1. Minnesota is fine too. Detroit at Tampa is okay in small doses, but we are not building around it.
Blues we like most
| C STL Mason McTavish · $5,300 · 11.0 · 3% | Second-line center who also runs the top power play, at 3% owned. | | W STL Jimmy Snuggerud · $5,400 · 10.3 · 4% | Top line and top power play. The best Blues projection. | | D STL Philip Broberg · $4,400 · 8.4 · 6% | The defenseman on the top power play, at $4,400. |
One-offs
| W WSH Jordan Kyrou · $4,400 · 10.3 · 7% | The best way into Washington's top power play at $4,400. | | W MTL Cole Caufield · $6,900 · 13.6 · 6% | One of the best shooters on the slate, in a Montreal game we like over. | | W ANA Cutter Gauthier · $7,600 · 17.8 · 5% | Anaheim plays in the highest total on the slate. Take the Ducks side, not Vancouver. |
Fades
| C EDM Connor McDavid · $9,800 · 12.8 · 7% | The most expensive player on the slate, against Hellebuyck. On an 11-game slate, $9,800 breaks the stacks winners actually use. | | C VAN Elias Pettersson · $5,600 · 8.8 · 7% | We are off Vancouver. Anaheim is the 59% favorite in the 7.0 game, and the Canucks are starting the lowest-projected goalie on the board. | | C PIT Sidney Crosby · $6,400 · 9.8 · 9% | Pittsburgh is 5th in team ownership, in a game we like under its total. |
See the winners for yourself. Perfect Lineups, part of Seeking Optimal Pro, shows the winning lineup and the best possible lineup for every DraftKings contest, including tonight's Overload once it finishes.
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GPP Core
Mason McTavish, Jimmy Snuggerud, Philip Broberg and Zach Werenski: three Blues off the top power play plus Columbus' top defenseman, and both of your defensemen. $22,200 for the four.
Finish it yourself:
- Build a 4-3-1: one more Blue (Robert Thomas, Jake Neighbours or Dylan Holloway) and two more Blue Jackets forwards (Kent Johnson, Adam Fantilli or Matthew Knies).
- Your one-off can come from Washington, Montreal or Anaheim.
- Goalie: Hellebuyck, Saros or Hill. Skip Hofer here, since winners rarely took the goalie from their main stack. Save him for lineups where Columbus or Utah is the four-man stack.
- No skaters facing your goalie, and no Canucks. Spend close to the full $50,000.
- In a 150-max contest, rotate the main stack across the Blues, Columbus and Utah, with Washington and Montreal as the second piece.
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Build yours in the optimizer
Open the NHL optimizer, lock your core, and set Max Player vs Goalie to 0 so no skater faces your goalie. The Line column shows each skater's line and power-play unit, and goalies are marked Confirmed or Probable as teams announce.
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Good luck tonight. Reply to this email with questions, or come talk lineups in the Discord.
Salaries are DraftKings Classic prices. Projections and ownership are Seeking Optimal's, as shown in the optimizer Tuesday afternoon. Implied goals come from sportsbook totals and moneylines. Winning-lineup findings come from past DraftKings NHL tournaments. Check starting goalies before lock. Play responsibly.
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