NHL Main Slate Rundown
The Avalanche Open at Home
Wednesday's 3-game slate · DraftKings Classic · locks 7:30 ET
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Top offense
COL 3.5
implied goals vs LA
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Best goalie spot
COL 64%
to win, at 12% owned
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Goalie to fade
Silovs
most popular, 43% to win
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The slate
Implied goals split each game total by the market's win odds. Times are Eastern.
| Game | Time | Total | Implied goals | Home win |
| PIT @ PHI | 7:30 | 6 | PIT 2.8 · PHI 3.2 | PHI 57% |
| NYI @ TOR | 7:30 | 6 | NYI 2.9 · TOR 3.1 | TOR 54% |
| LAK @ COL | 10:00 | 6 | LAK 2.5 · COL 3.5 | COL 64% |
All three totals are 6.0, so the difference is who wins. Colorado is the clear favorite and projects for the most goals on the slate. Philadelphia and Toronto are modest favorites, and the Leafs are on the second night of a back-to-back.
Goalies
Every starter is confirmed. The shots number is the market's saves line.
Our goalie board
| G COL MacKenzie Blackwood · $8,300 · 16.1 · 12% | The top goalie projection on the slate, on the biggest favorite (64%), facing the lowest implied offense (2.5). Owned by less than half as many people as Vladar or Silovs. |
| G PHI Dan Vladar · $8,000 · 14.1 · 28% | Philadelphia is 57% to win at home. Fine, but popular. |
| G TOR Anthony Stolarz · $7,800 · 13.5 · 8% | The contrarian pick. The highest saves line on the slate (26.5) and single-digit ownership, starting the back half of Toronto's back-to-back. |
Fade
| G PIT Arturs Silovs · $7,400 · 9.7 · 31% | The most popular goalie on the slate, on an underdog (43% to win) facing Philadelphia's 3.2 implied goals. He projects more than four points below Dan Vladar in the same game. |
Stacks we like
Line stacks pair a center with his wingers. Power-play stacks add the defenseman who runs the unit.
1. Flyers Line 1 Porter Martone, Owen Tippett, Trevor Zegras · $16,000 · 33.0 proj · 37% combined ownership Our favorite stack. It projects second only to Colorado's top line for $3,800 less and half the ownership, with Philadelphia at 3.2 implied goals. |
2. Flyers Line 3 Matvei Michkov, Alex Bump, Noah Cates · $11,500 · 24.2 proj · 13% combined ownership The cheap leverage stack. Matvei Michkov plays on the top power play and is barely owned. |
3. Avalanche Line 1 Nathan MacKinnon, Martin Necas, Artturi Lehkonen · $19,800 · 40.5 proj · 76% combined ownership The best line on the slate in the best spot, and the chalk. Pair it with a low-owned second stack rather than more Avalanche. |
4. Maple Leafs Line 2 John Tavares, William Nylander, Gavin McKenna · $18,800 · 32.4 proj · 34% combined ownership Projects about as well as Toronto's top line and is less owned, with Tavares on the first power play. |
Power-play stacks
Avalanche PP1 Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar, Martin Necas, Gabriel Landeskog, T.J. Hughes · $30,500 · 61.3 proj · 111% combined ownership The best unit on the slate, but these five together carry more ownership than a typical winning lineup does in total. Take two or three. |
Islanders PP2 Victor Eklund, Simon Holmstrom, Calum Ritchie, Tony DeAngelo, Anthony Duclair · $17,000 · 30.1 proj · 14% combined ownership The deep contrarian play. Almost nobody will stack a second unit, and it projects close to Toronto's second unit for $4,500 less. |
Player board
Orange number is our projection, then projected ownership. Salaries are DraftKings Classic.
Core
| C COL Nathan MacKinnon · $8,700 · 18.1 · 41% | The highest projection on the slate, and the only skater the market has at 4.5 shots, the best path to DraftKings' 5+ shot bonus. |
| D COL Cale Makar · $7,000 · 15.2 · 30% | Runs Colorado's top power play and projects four points clear of every other defenseman. |
| W COL Martin Necas · $6,300 · 14.1 · 21% | MacKinnon's linemate on both units, the best-projected winger on the slate. |
Value
| W PHI Matvei Michkov · $4,100 · 10.1 · 1% | The best point-per-dollar winger on the slate, on the top power play, at 1% owned. |
| D TOR Jake McCabe · $3,900 · 11.2 · 2% | The best point-per-dollar defenseman on the slate at $3,900, and almost nobody will play him. |
| W PIT Egor Chinakhov · $4,300 · 9.6 · 5% | On Pittsburgh's top power play at $4,300. |
| C PHI Trevor Zegras · $4,600 · 10.1 · 18% | The best point-per-dollar center on the slate, on Philadelphia's top line. |
Leverage
| C TOR John Tavares · $6,300 · 11.9 · 12% | Projects nearly as well as Matthews for $1,400 less, at half the ownership. |
| W PHI Owen Tippett · $5,300 · 11.4 · 8% | Philadelphia's top line at 8% owned. |
| D LAK Brandt Clarke · $5,000 · 10.6 · 13% | Runs the Kings' top power play at $5,000. |
Fades
| C PIT Sidney Crosby · $6,900 · 9.2 · 25% | One of the most popular skaters on the slate, on an underdog, projected for less than Tavares at a higher salary. |
| W PIT Rickard Rakell · $6,200 · 8.3 · 21% | 20% owned on Crosby's line. The Penguins stack is where the field is, not where the edge is. |
| D PIT Erik Karlsson · $5,700 · 7.4 · 18% | $5,700, but he projects the same as Devon Toews ($4,300) and Morgan Rielly ($4,400). |
| D TOR Darren Raddysh · $5,500 · 9.2 · 24% | Among the most popular defensemen, but Jake McCabe projects higher for $1,600 less. |
What wins NHL GPPs
We studied the winning lineup from hundreds of big DraftKings NHL Classic tournaments. Here is what they had in common.
| Stack shape | 4-3-1 31% · 3-3-1-1 11% · 5-2-1 10%. A 4-3-1 is four skaters from one team, three from a second and one from a third. 56% of winners used exactly three teams. |
| Goalie | Only 22% took their goalie from the main stack's team, and 91% had no skater facing their own goalie. Pick the best goalie spot, not the one that matches your stack. |
| Ownership | Median total ownership was 83%, about 9% per player. Hockey tournaments reward going where the field isn't. |
| Salary | Median spend $49,900. Use the whole cap. |
| See the winners for yourself. Perfect Lineups, part of Seeking Optimal Pro, shows the winning lineup and the best possible lineup for every DraftKings contest. |
Contrarian Flyers build
Four Flyers built around their top line, a Leafs mini-stack and one Avalanche defenseman. Martone, Zegras and Michkov also share Philadelphia's top power play, and McKenna and McCabe skate on Toronto's second line.
| C PHI Trevor Zegras · $4,600 · 10.1 · 18% |
| C TOR Auston Matthews · $7,700 · 12.6 · 24% |
| W PHI Porter Martone · $6,100 · 11.5 · 12% |
| W PHI Owen Tippett · $5,300 · 11.4 · 8% |
| W TOR Gavin McKenna · $6,000 · 8.7 · 2% |
| D TOR Jake McCabe · $3,900 · 11.2 · 2% |
| D COL Sam Malinski · $4,000 · 8.9 · 10% |
| UTIL PHI Matvei Michkov · $4,100 · 10.1 · 1% |
$41,700 · 84.5 projected · 77% total ownership for eight skaters
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That leaves $8,300 for your goalie. MacKenzie Blackwood fits exactly, or take Anthony Stolarz with $500 to spare and pair him with the three Leafs. Neither faces a skater in this lineup.
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Build yours in the optimizer
Open the NHL optimizer, lock your line stack and goalie, and set Max Player vs Goalie to 0 so no skater faces your goalie. The Line column shows each skater's line and power-play unit, and goalies are marked Confirmed or Probable as teams announce.
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Good luck tonight. Reply to this email with questions, or come talk lineups in the Discord.
Salaries are DraftKings Classic prices. Projections, lines and ownership are Seeking Optimal's, as shown in the optimizer Wednesday afternoon. Win odds, totals, shots and saves lines are sportsbook numbers. Confirm goalies before lock. Play responsibly.
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