Seeking Optimal

NHL Main Slate Rundown

Ride the Ducks

Friday's 4-game slate · DraftKings Classic · locks 7:00 ET

Best game
ANA @ WPG
6.5 total, close to a coin flip
Value goalie
Shesterkin
$7,100, highest saves line
Our stack
Anaheim
3.2 implied goals

The slate

Implied goals split each game total by the market's win odds. Times are Eastern.

GameTimeTotalImplied goalsFavorite
PIT @ CBJ7:006.5PIT 3.2 · CBJ 3.3CBJ 52%
NYR @ WSH7:005.5NYR 2.6 · WSH 2.9WSH 56%
SEA @ DET7:006SEA 2.8 · DET 3.2DET 57%
ANA @ WPG8:006.5ANA 3.2 · WPG 3.3WPG 52%

Anaheim at Winnipeg and Pittsburgh at Columbus share the slate's highest total (6.5), and both are close to even. Detroit is the biggest favorite at home against Seattle. Rangers at Capitals has the lowest total.

What changed

  • No Hellebuyck for Winnipeg. He is suspended after asking for a trade, so Clay Stevenson is expected in goal. Winnipeg is also without top defenseman Josh Morrissey, which moves Neal Pionk onto the first power play.
  • New faces in Columbus. Matthew Knies arrived in a trade and plays on the top line and first power play, and Cam Talbot makes his first start for the Blue Jackets.
  • Anaheim is without Troy Terry. That keeps more of the scoring on the top two lines we are stacking.
  • Two goalies are not official yet: Lukas Dostal for Anaheim and Joey Daccord for Seattle. Check before lock.

Goalies

Value goalie

G NYR Igor Shesterkin · $7,100 · 8.2 · 22%The cheapest confirmed starter on the slate, and the market has him facing the most shots, which means more saves at 0.7 points each. The Rangers are underdogs, so the win bonus is less likely. At this price we don't care.

Stack-friendly goalie

G ANA Lukas Dostal · $7,400 · 9.1 · 12%Our pick if you stack Anaheim. The Ducks are a near coin flip in Winnipeg, and he is less owned than Shesterkin. Wait for confirmation.

Leverage

G CBJ Cam Talbot · $7,900 · 13.5 · 6%The top goalie projection on the slate, on a slight favorite, at 6% owned. The field is not on him.

Fade

G WSH Logan Thompson · $8,300 · 10.3 · 17%The most expensive goalie on the slate, with the lowest saves line of any confirmed starter. Shesterkin is facing him for $1,200 less.

Stacks we like

Line stacks pair a center with his wingers.

1. Ducks Line 2
Beckett Sennecke, Alex Killorn, Mikael Granlund · $15,000 · 26.9 proj · 35% combined ownership
Our favorite stack. Alex Killorn projects for over 9 points at $3,800, and two of the three play on the first power play. Cheaper and less owned than Anaheim's top line.
2. Ducks Line 1
Cutter Gauthier, Leo Carlsson, A.J. Greer · $18,100 · 28.1 proj · 40% combined ownership
Cutter Gauthier is Anaheim's top shooter in the game we like most. Pair this with Line 2 for a full Anaheim build.
3. Blue Jackets Line 2
Dmitri Voronkov, Valeri Nichushkin, Sean Monahan · $11,000 · 26.3 proj · 12% combined ownership
Our leverage stack. Dmitri Voronkov projects for over 10 points at $2,900 and 1% owned, in a 6.5-total game.
4. Capitals Line 2
Alex Ovechkin, Dylan Strome, Anthony Beauvillier · $14,100 · 29.1 proj · 25% combined ownership
Alex Ovechkin and Dylan Strome both play on the first power play, at a fair price. Don't pair them with Shesterkin, who faces them.

Fades

C DET Dylan Larkin · $6,500 · 11.4 · 19%Detroit's top line is the second most popular stack on the slate, in a 6.0 total. The Ducks and Blue Jackets give you more goals for less ownership.
W DET Lucas Raymond · $6,200 · 10.4 · 14%Same line, same reason.
D CBJ Zach Werenski · $7,800 · 10.7 · 17%The most expensive defenseman on the slate. At $7,800, that money buys most of a Ducks line.

What wins NHL GPPs

We studied the winning lineups from big DraftKings NHL Classic tournaments on 4 and 5 game slates like tonight's.

Stack shape4-3-1 29% · 3-3-1-1 14% · 4-2-1-1 8%. A 4-3-1 is four skaters from one team, three from a second and one from a third. 51% of winners used exactly three teams.
GoalieOnly 21% took their goalie from the main stack's team, and 89% had no skater facing their own goalie.
OwnershipMedian total ownership was 107%, and the middle half ran 84% to 125%.
SalaryMedian spend $49,900. Use the whole cap.
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GPP Core

Igor Shesterkin, Cutter Gauthier and Alex Killorn: the value goalie, the top Anaheim shooter, and the cheap winger on the Ducks' second line. $18,800 for the three.

Finish it yourself:

  • Build a 4-3-1 with Anaheim as the four: add two more Ducks from the top two lines.
  • Make Columbus your three, with Voronkov at $2,900 as the leverage piece.
  • No Capitals skaters, since Shesterkin is facing them.
  • Spend close to the full $50,000.

Build yours in the optimizer

Open the NHL optimizer, lock your core and stacks, and set Max Player vs Goalie to 0 so no skater faces your goalie. The Line column shows each skater's line and power-play unit, and goalies are marked Confirmed or Probable as teams announce.

Open the Optimizer

Good luck tonight. Reply to this email with questions, or come talk lineups in the Discord.

Salaries are DraftKings Classic prices. Projections, lines and ownership are Seeking Optimal's, as shown in the optimizer Friday afternoon. Win odds, totals and saves lines are sportsbook numbers. Confirm goalies before lock. Play responsibly.