NFL Week 8 Main Slate Rundown
Skip the Chalk Back
11 games · DraftKings Classic · locks Sunday 1:00 ET
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Top totals
54.5
BAL @ BUF and ARI @ DAL
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Our stack
Jaguars
Lawrence + his receivers
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Chalk we pass
Chase Brown
27% owned, the slate's top play
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The slate
Implied team totals split each game total by the spread. Weather is the kickoff-hour forecast.
| Game | Total | Implied | Weather |
| BAL @ BUF | 54.5 | BUF 28.75 · BAL 25.75 | calm |
| ARI @ DAL | 54.5 | DAL 30.75 · ARI 23.75 | indoors |
| TEN @ CIN | 46.5 | CIN 29.5 · TEN 17 | calm |
| MIN @ DET | 46.5 | DET 24.75 · MIN 21.75 | indoors |
| IND @ JAX | 46.5 | JAX 28.25 · IND 18.25 | rain chance late |
| LV @ NYJ | 45.5 | NYJ 23.5 · LV 22 | calm |
| LAC @ LAR | 45.5 | LAR 26 · LAC 19.5 | roof |
| ATL @ TB | 43.5 | TB 23 · ATL 20.5 | gusts to 25 mph, rain chance |
| NE @ MIA | 43.5 | NE 25.25 · MIA 18.25 | gusts to 22 mph, rain chance |
| KC @ DEN | 40.5 | KC 21 · DEN 19.5 | wind 11 mph |
| CLE @ PIT | 39.5 | PIT 21.5 · CLE 18 | calm |
Two games share the top total, and the Cowboys' 30.75 implied points lead every team. The worst weather is in Falcons at Buccaneers and Patriots at Dolphins, with gusty wind and a chance of rain. That windy Tampa forecast is one more reason we're light on Drake London. Jacksonville could see some rain in the second half, but not enough to scare us off the Jaguars.
What wins big tournaments
We studied the winning lineup from every DraftKings Milly Maker since 2021. Here's what they had in common.
| Ownership | Winners averaged about 12% ownership per player, and 42% had one player owned 30% or more. Nobody is projected that high this week, so the chalk is spread out. |
| Quarterback | 61% used a QB owned 5% to 15%, and 27% went under 5%. Only 12% used one owned 15% or more. |
| Stacks | QB plus one pass catcher 41%, QB plus two 44%. 41% added a player from the other side. |
| Darts | 61% had at least one player owned under 3%. |
| Tight end and defense | 89% played exactly one tight end. The median winning defense cost $3,000, and only 3% paired their QB with his own defense. |
| Salary | The median winner spent the full $50,000. |
See the winners for yourself. Perfect Lineups, part of Seeking Optimal Pro, shows the winning lineup and the best possible lineup for every DraftKings contest.
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Injuries and who gains
- Emeka Egbuka is out for Tampa Bay. Chris Godwin Jr. is the receiver we want there, at $4,800 and 9% owned.
- Carnell Tate is out for Tennessee. That's why Wan'Dale Robinson is suddenly 19% owned.
- RJ Harvey is out for Denver. Jonah Coleman takes the backfield.
- Jakobi Meyers is questionable with hamstring and ankle injuries, and he didn't practice Friday. He's part of our Jaguars stack, so check him before 1:00. If he sits, Travis Hunter is the $3,100 replacement.
- DJ Moore is questionable after missing two games with a shoulder injury, but he expects to play. We like him for a big return.
- Lamar Jackson is back for Baltimore. More on why we're not playing him below.
- A.J. Brown is out for New England, and so is running back TreVeyon Henderson. Rhamondre Stevenson gets the backfield to himself, and Efton Chism III and Hunter Henry should pick up Brown's targets.
The chalk we're passing on
Chase Brown tops the ownership board, and we're skipping him. Cincinnati is a 12.5-point favorite, but a blowout this big can be won through the air just as easily, and Samaje Perine keeps stealing the short touchdowns. Tennessee also just traded Jeffery Simmons, its best defensive lineman, which helps Brown on paper. There's a case that he takes over from here, but at 27% owned we don't need to be the ones paying for it. If you want the Bengals, Tee Higgins is the better way in: cheaper than Ja'Marr Chase, and less popular than Brown.
| RB CIN Chase Brown · $6,300 · 19 · 27% | 27% owned, in a game Cincinnati can win throwing. |
| WR ATL Drake London · $7,000 · 19 · 18% | Atlanta plays a slow, run-first game, in the wind and maybe rain. We'd rather have the Ravens' receivers at a similar price. |
| QB BAL Lamar Jackson · $6,800 · 20 · 7% | Back from injury, but we'd rather have the Ravens' pass catchers and Derrick Henry than the quarterback against Buffalo. |
| WR MIN Justin Jefferson · $7,100 · 19 · 14% | He's had quiet days against Detroit, and Kyler Murray is the one throwing to him. Hockenson is the Viking we want. |
| RB LV Ashton Jeanty · $6,700 · 15 · 8% | His rushing efficiency has been poor all year. Jaylen Warren is the back we want in that range. |
| RB KC Kenneth Walker III · $8,800 · 20 · 6% | $8,800 in a 40.5 total, one of the two lowest on the slate. We don't expect a repeat of his Week 1 against Denver. |
Also fading: Tony Pollard, Mark Andrews, Aaron Rodgers (no rushing floor, and Darnell Washington can steal a red-zone score), Jared Goff, Rashod Bateman and Adonai Mitchell. Running backs Rico Dowdle, Omarion Hampton, Bam Knight and Emmett Johnson too. At tight end, we're skipping Travis Kelce, Tyler Warren, Kyle Pitts and Tyler Higbee, and Brock Bowers unless he's in a Kirk Cousins stack.
Stacks we like
Main stack: Jacksonville
| QB JAX Trevor Lawrence · $6,200 · 20 · 9% | Jacksonville is favored by 10 at home and implied for 28 points, and he's under 10% owned. Right where winning quarterbacks usually sit. |
| WR JAX Parker Washington · $6,500 · 15 · 13% | Jacksonville's top receiver, at 13% owned. Our favorite wideout in his price range. |
| WR JAX Jakobi Meyers · $4,500 · 9 · 4% | Cheap and barely owned. Check his status before lock. |
| TE JAX Brenton Strange · $4,000 · 11 · 14% | A home tight end at $4,000 with one of the best ceilings under $5,000. A three-man Jaguars stack if you want it. |
Indianapolis is the weak side of this game, so a bring-back is optional. If you want one, Josh Downs is barely owned.
Second stack: Buffalo
| QB BUF Josh Allen · $7,700 · 26 · 11% | Our only spend-up quarterback. The top quarterback projection this week, in a 54.5 total, at 11% owned. |
| WR BUF DJ Moore · $5,700 · 13 · 10% | Back from a shoulder injury, and we think he makes up for lost time. |
| WR BAL Zay Flowers · $7,200 · 19 · 23% | The bring-back. Lamar is back, and Buffalo's defense has been soft. |
| WR BAL Ja'Kobi Lane · $3,400 · 7 · 11% | The cheaper Ravens bring-back, at $3,400. |
Third stack: Arizona
We're higher on the Cardinals than the field. Dallas is implied for nearly 31 points, so Arizona should be throwing all afternoon.
| QB ARI Jacoby Brissett · $5,700 · 20 · 8% | A $5,700 quarterback projecting 19.5 points, chasing the Cowboys. |
| WR ARI Michael Wilson · $6,200 · 15 · 8% | Arizona's top receiver, at 8% owned. |
| WR ARI Kendrick Bourne · $3,900 · 10 · 10% | The cheap receiver, at $3,900. |
| TE ARI Trey McBride · $7,400 · 18 · 12% | An okay spend-up at tight end if you want the full Cardinals bet. |
| WR DAL CeeDee Lamb · $8,100 · 24 · 18% | The bring-back from the other side. |
Player board
Salary, our projection, our projected ownership.
Running backs
| RB DAL Javonte Williams · $7,300 · 20 · 18% | Dallas's lead runner, on the team implied for the most points. |
| RB BAL Derrick Henry · $7,200 · 18 · 12% | We're higher on him than the field. He's our favorite way into Baltimore. |
| RB PIT Jaylen Warren · $6,600 · 15 · 10% | Our pick over Jeanty, at about the same price and ownership. |
| RB JAX Bhayshul Tuten · $5,900 · 15 · 20% | Jacksonville's top runner, with the Jaguars favored by 10. |
| RB MIA Ollie Gordon II · $5,700 · 14 · 6% | Cheap, under 6% owned, with a big-game ceiling. |
| RB NE Rhamondre Stevenson · $5,600 · 17 · 19% | Another cheap back who can hit big, now with Henderson out too. |
| RB ARI Jeremiyah Love · $5,400 · 11 · 5% | Cheap and barely owned. An ankle injury kept him from running many routes early on, but Arizona plans to throw to him more, and the Cardinals should be chasing points all day. |
Jahmyr Gibbs and Bijan Robinson are fine at the top.
Receivers
| WR CIN Tee Higgins · $6,700 · 15 · 17% | Our way into Cincinnati instead of Chase Brown. |
| WR TB Chris Godwin Jr. · $4,800 · 13 · 9% | Picks up the targets with Egbuka out. |
| WR NE Efton Chism III · $3,400 · 8 · 5% | Another good cheap receiver, and one of the players who gains with A.J. Brown out. |
| WR NYJ Omar Cooper Jr. · $4,800 · 11 · 5% | Cheap and under 6% owned. |
| WR DAL Ryan Flournoy · $4,600 · 10 · 4% | A cheap Cowboy on the highest-scoring team. |
| WR PIT Germie Bernard · $4,900 · 11 · 7% | Fine as a cheap piece. |
Tight ends
| TE MIN T.J. Hockenson · $4,600 · 11 · 5% | Our Viking instead of Jefferson. |
| TE LAR Colby Parkinson · $3,100 · 7 · 2% | Cheap and barely owned. He's questionable, so check before lock. |
| TE NYJ Mason Taylor · $3,300 · 7 · 2% | One of the deep group of cheap tight ends. |
| TE CIN Mike Gesicki · $3,700 · 8 · 2% | Same, under 3% owned. |
| TE NE Eli Raridon · $3,300 · 6 · 3% | Same. |
| TE PIT Darnell Washington · $2,900 · 6 · 2% | Same, and the reason we're fading Rodgers. |
| TE MIA Greg Dulcich · $3,200 · 7 · 5% | Same. |
Cade Otton and Sam LaPorta are fine. You can play two tight ends this week, but it isn't a build we love.
Defenses
| DST PIT Steelers · $3,300 · 9 · 12% | A great price. Pittsburgh is favored at home, and Cleveland is implied for just 18 points. |
| DST JAX Jaguars · $3,700 · 9 · 3% | The spend-up defense. A 10-point home favorite. |
| DST CIN Bengals · $3,800 · 10 · 3% | Should be good against a Titans team that can't keep up. |
| DST DEN Broncos · $2,300 · 8 · 14% | The cheap defense we like most, but at 15% owned it's one of the field's favorites too. We'll play some, just less than the field. |
The Patriots, Rams, Chargers and Raiders are all fine too. Keep the Raiders out of your Jets stacks, and don't pair your quarterback with his own defense.
GPP Core
Trevor Lawrence, Parker Washington, Derrick Henry and the Steelers defense: our favorite quarterback stack, the back we like more than the field, and the best-priced defense on the slate. $23,200 for the four.
Finish it yourself:
- Add a second Jaguar: Jakobi Meyers if he plays, or Brenton Strange as your tight end.
- Pick a second back from Javonte Williams, Jaylen Warren or one of the cheap ones: Ollie Gordon II, Rhamondre Stevenson or Jeremiyah Love.
- Fill your receivers from DJ Moore, Chris Godwin Jr., Tee Higgins and Efton Chism III.
- No Chase Brown, Drake London or Lamar Jackson.
- Use the whole cap, and aim for about 12% ownership per player.
Cash Game Core
Josh Allen, Javonte Williams, Bhayshul Tuten and CeeDee Lamb. In cash games you want the safest points: the best quarterback projection, two backs whose teams are favored at home, and Dallas's top receiver. The Steelers are our defense.
Week 8 Strategy: where our edge is
Nobody on the board is projected for 30% or more this week, so you don't have to eat a mega-chalk play. The leverage comes from which games you build around.
| The crowded game | The field has about 135% combined ownership on Bengals-Titans, more than any other game, even though its 46.5 total is middle of the pack. Chase Brown, Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Wan'Dale Robinson are all near or above 17%. If Cincinnati runs away with it, a big share of the field has those points. If it doesn't, they all lose together. Skipping Brown and keeping your Bengals to one player per lineup is our biggest edge this week. |
| The overlooked offense | Buffalo is implied for almost 29 points, but the Bills' side is owned like an average team: Allen 11%, DJ Moore 10%. Baltimore carries nearly twice as much ownership in the same game, mostly from Flowers. A Bills stack gets you the top total without the crowd. |
| Quiet games | The field is barely touching Raiders-Jets, a 45.5 total at about 49% combined. A Kirk Cousins stack with Brock Bowers and Tre Tucker, all under 5% owned, is the one place we'd play Bowers, and the cleanest way to get a quarterback under 5%. |
| Chalk discipline | Keep each lineup to one player from the 18% to 20% group: Javonte Williams, Tuten, Lamb, or Flowers to bring back a Bills stack. Aim for about 12% ownership per player. |
| The dart | Your cheap tight end can double as your dart. Mason Taylor, Darnell Washington and Gesicki are all under 3% owned. Play one tight end, not two. |
| Defense | The Steelers are fine. The Jaguars, Bengals and Patriots are all under 3% owned. We're under the field on the Broncos at 15%. |
| Late swap | Rams-Chargers kicks at 4:05, and Chiefs-Broncos and Patriots-Dolphins at 4:25. Put those players in your FLEX so you can adjust after the early games. |
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Build yours in the optimizer
Open the NFL optimizer, lock your core, turn on QB stacking, and exclude the players we're fading. Projections and ownership refresh through Sunday morning.
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Good luck Sunday. Reply to this email with questions, or come talk lineups in the Discord.
Salaries are DraftKings Classic prices. Projections and ownership are Seeking Optimal's, as shown in the optimizer Saturday. Lines are sportsbook spreads and totals; weather is the kickoff-hour forecast. Winning-lineup findings come from past DraftKings Milly Makers. Check inactives before lock, especially Jakobi Meyers and DJ Moore. Play responsibly.
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