NFL Week 7 Main Slate Rundown
Go Where the Field Isn't
10 games · DraftKings Classic · locks Sunday 1:00 ET
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Top total
GB @ DET
53.5, four points clear
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Our stack
Cousins + Bowers
about 5% owned combined
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Chalk to eat
McCaffrey
the one 30% play we want
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The slate
Implied team totals split each game total by the spread. Weather is the kickoff-hour forecast.
| Game | Total | Implied | Weather |
| GB @ DET | 53.5 | DET 28.25 · GB 25.25 | indoors |
| SF @ ATL | 49.5 | SF 26 · ATL 23.5 | indoors |
| LAR @ LV | 48.5 | LAR 25.75 · LV 22.75 | indoors |
| CIN @ BAL | 46.5 | CIN 24.5 · BAL 22 | calm |
| TB @ CAR | 44.5 | CAR 23.75 · TB 20.75 | wind 11 mph |
| DEN @ ARI | 43.5 | DEN 24 · ARI 19.5 | indoors |
| NYG @ HOU | 42.5 | HOU 26.25 · NYG 16.25 | indoors |
| IND @ MIN | 41.5 | MIN 24 · IND 17.5 | indoors |
| MIA @ NYJ | 39.5 | NYJ 22 · MIA 17.5 | calm |
| CLE @ TEN | 36.5 | CLE 19.5 · TEN 17 | calm |
Packers at Lions has the biggest total by four points. Weather is a non-factor, with six games indoors and light wind everywhere else. The 4:25 window holds both the top game and Rams at Raiders, which matters for late swap.
What wins big tournaments
We studied the winning lineup from every DraftKings Milly Maker since 2021. This week's $2.5M Millionaire has more than 140,000 entries, so these are the rules.
| Ownership | Winners averaged about 12% ownership per player. 42% had one player owned 30% or more. Eat one big chalk play, not three. |
| Quarterback | 61% used a QB owned 5% to 15%, and 27% went under 5%. Only 12% used a QB owned 15% or more. |
| Stacks | QB plus one pass catcher 41%, QB plus two 44%. 41% added a player from the other side. |
| Darts | 61% had at least one player owned under 3%. |
| Tight end and defense | 89% played exactly one tight end, so two tight ends is a real way to be different. The median winning defense cost $3,000, and only 3% paired their QB with his own defense. |
| Salary | The median winner spent the full $50,000. |
See the winners for yourself. Perfect Lineups, part of Seeking Optimal Pro, shows the winning lineup and the best possible lineup for every DraftKings contest.
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Injuries and who gains
- Mike Evans is out for San Francisco. That concentrates the 49ers' targets on McCaffrey and Kittle.
- David Montgomery is out for Houston. Woody Marks takes the backfield as a 10-point home favorite.
- Emeka Egbuka is out for Tampa Bay. The field has noticed: Ted Hurst III and Cade Otton are among the most popular cheap plays on the slate.
- Lamar Jackson is out for Baltimore. That helps the Cincinnati side of a 46.5 total.
- Las Vegas is thin at receiver. Reports have the Raiders without Dont'e Thornton and Carter Runyon, which pushes even more of Cousins's throws to Bowers.
- Davante Adams is reported out for the Rams. More targets for the tight ends, including Parkinson.
- Check Amon-Ra St. Brown before lock. Detroit's latest update on him was vague. If he sits, use Jameson Williams as the Lions bring-back.
- Puka Nacua is questionable. He plays at 4:25, so if you use him, put him in your FLEX and keep a swap ready.
Stacks we like
Main stack: Las Vegas
| QB LV Kirk Cousins · $5,800 · 16.3 · 1% | A home underdog in an indoor game, chasing the Rams. Nobody will have him. |
| TE LV Brock Bowers · $7,700 · 18.1 · 4% | Cousins's top target and the best tight end projection on the slate, owned like an afterthought. |
| TE LAR Colby Parkinson · $3,000 · 7.3 · 6% | The bring-back, in your FLEX. A second tight end is how you separate this week, and he costs $3,000. |
Cousins sits under 5% owned, the riskier quarterback tier that still produced about a quarter of past winners. If Las Vegas keeps pace with the Rams, almost nobody has it.
Second stack: Green Bay
| QB GB Jordan Love · $6,000 · 19.9 · 18% | He gets the highest total on the board. He is a little more popular than winning quarterbacks usually are, so use him in fewer lineups than Cousins. |
| TE GB Tucker Kraft · $4,700 · 12.6 · 17% | Love's tight end in a 53.5 total, at $3,000 less than Bowers. |
| WR DET Amon-Ra St. Brown · $7,800 · 21.8 · 25% | The bring-back from Detroit, the team with the highest total on the slate. |
Dart quarterback
| QB NYG J.J. McCarthy · $4,800 · 14.8 · 3% | Down 10, the Giants will throw all afternoon. Pair him with Malik Nabers in a handful of lineups. |
Get different on your dart
The cheap plays everyone found are already chalk. Hurst and Otton are both above 20% owned, and Tampa is only the fifth-best total on the slate. A dart only works if the field does not have it, so go somewhere else.
| WR IND Laquon Treadwell · $3,300 · 5.2 · 0% | Indianapolis is without Tyler Warren and Anthony Gould, so there are targets to go around. At under 1%, one score wins you a lot of ground. |
| RB IND Jonathan Taylor · $8,000 · 16.8 · 2% | An $8,000 back at 2% owned. If you want a stud nobody has, this is the one. |
| WR TB Ted Hurst III · $3,000 · 8.3 · 27% | Fine in cash. In a big tournament, more than a quarter of the field has him. |
| TE TB Cade Otton · $3,100 · 9.4 · 23% | Same story. Parkinson is our cheap tight end instead. |
Player board
Salary, our projection, our projected ownership.
| RB SF Christian McCaffrey · $7,600 · 23.4 · 41% | With Evans out, the 49ers run through him. Our one big chalk play. |
| TE SF George Kittle · $5,700 · 17.9 · 34% | Great spot, but another 30% play. In tournaments, take him in builds without Bowers. |
| RB HOU Woody Marks · $5,600 · 15.2 · 25% | The lead back on a 10-point home favorite, at $5,600. |
| WR CIN Tee Higgins · $6,600 · 15.2 · 12% | The favored side of a game Baltimore plays without Lamar, at $1,500 less than Ja'Marr Chase. |
| WR TEN Carnell Tate · $5,100 · 12.5 · 11% | A $5,100 receiver projecting 12.5 points. The low total is why he is only 11% owned, and if Calvin Ridley sits, Tate gets even more of the volume. |
| WR GB Matthew Golden · $6,000 · 17.1 · 29% | Close to 30% owned. Kraft is our way into the Packers' passing game instead. |
| DST TEN Titans · $2,600 · 8.4 · 16% | Tennessee's pass rush against a Cleveland line that has struggled to protect, at the lowest price of the good options. The Browns are the same game at half the ownership. |
| RB ATL Bijan Robinson · $8,500 · 25.9 · 31% | Elite, but at $8,500 he crowds out the Vegas stack. Pick him or McCaffrey, not both. |
GPP Core
Kirk Cousins, Brock Bowers, Christian McCaffrey and Woody Marks: the stack nobody has, the one big chalk play we will eat, and the cheap back on a big favorite. $26,700 for the four.
Finish it yourself:
- Bring one back from the Rams. Parkinson in the FLEX is our favorite, which makes this a two tight end build.
- Pick your receivers from Higgins, Tate and Jameson Williams. Skip the cheap Tampa receivers.
- Keep it to one or two players owned 20% or more. McCaffrey and Marks already cover that.
- Take a defense at $3,000 or less: the Titans, the Browns or the Jets. One side of Browns-Titans, and not the Raiders. In lineups with Tate, use the Browns or the Jets.
- Use the whole cap, and aim for about 12% ownership per player.
Cash Game Core
Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, Woody Marks and Jordan Love. In cash games you want the safest points, and the field's favorite values are fine here. Hurst works as a cheap receiver, and the Titans at $2,600 are our defense.
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Build yours in the optimizer
Open the NFL optimizer, lock your core, turn on QB stacking, and leave Avoid TE in FLEX off for your Parkinson builds. Projections and ownership refresh through Sunday morning.
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Good luck Sunday. Reply to this email with questions, or come talk lineups in the Discord.
Salaries are DraftKings Classic prices. Projections and ownership are Seeking Optimal's, as shown in the optimizer Saturday. Lines are sportsbook spreads and totals; weather is the kickoff-hour forecast. Winning-lineup findings come from past DraftKings Milly Makers. Check inactives before lock, especially Puka Nacua. Play responsibly.
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