NFL Week 6 Main Slate
Carolina Comes Back Healthy
Sunday · 10 games · DraftKings Classic · locks 1:00 ET
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Our stack
Carolina
Bryce Young at 2% owned
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Chalk to eat
Nacua
the one 40%+ play we want
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Biggest total
BUF @ LV
53.5 and the field is late to it
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The slate
Implied team totals split each game total by the spread. Weather is the kickoff-hour forecast.
| Game | Total | Implied | Weather |
| BUF @ LV | 53.5 | BUF 29.5 · LV 24 | indoors |
| CHI @ ATL | 52.5 | CHI 27 · ATL 25.5 | indoors |
| ARI @ LAR | 51.5 | LAR 32 · ARI 19.5 | |
| NO @ NYG | 46.5 | NO 24 · NYG 22.5 | |
| TEN @ IND | 44.5 | IND 25.5 · TEN 19 | indoors |
| NYJ @ NE | 43.5 | NE 25.5 · NYJ 18 | |
| LAC @ KC | 41.5 | KC 24.5 · LAC 17 | |
| BAL @ CLE | 39.5 | BAL 21.25 · CLE 18.25 | |
| CAR @ PHI | 39.5 | CAR 21.25 · PHI 18.25 | |
| PIT @ TB | 38.5 | PIT 20.5 · TB 18 | wind 13 mph, gusts 23 |
Buffalo at Las Vegas has the biggest total, Bears-Falcons sits a point lower under a roof, and no team is projected to score more than the Rams at 32. The only weather worth noting is wind in Tampa, gusting near 30 mph for Steelers-Bucs. Philadelphia is without both Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley, which is why Carolina's defense is the most popular cheap defense on the slate.
What wins big tournaments
We studied the winning lineup from every DraftKings Milly Maker since 2021. This week's $2.75M Millionaire has more than 160,000 entries, so the same rules apply.
| Ownership | Winners averaged about 12% ownership per player, and the median winner had 1.5 players owned 30% or more. Eat one or two chalk plays, not five. |
| Quarterback | 61% of winners used a QB owned between 5% and 15%, and 27% went under 5%. Only 12% used a QB owned 15% or more. |
| Stacks | QB plus one pass catcher 41%, QB plus two 44%. 41% added a player from the other team. |
| Tight end and defense | 89% played exactly one tight end. The median winning defense cost $3,000, and only 3% paired their quarterback with his own defense. |
| Darts | 61% had a player owned under 3%. |
| Salary | Winners used basically the whole $50,000. |
See the winners for yourself. Perfect Lineups, part of Seeking Optimal Pro, shows the winning lineup and the best possible lineup for every DraftKings contest.
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Injuries and who gains
- Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley are both out for Philadelphia. Tanner McKee starts at quarterback and Dameon Pierce leads the backfield, behind a line missing two interior starters.
- The Panthers are rested and whole. After the bye week, Bryce Young and Jalen Coker were full participants every day, and Moton is back from IR to start on the right side.
- Lamar Jackson is out again. Tyler Huntley starts for Baltimore in Cleveland.
- Pat Freiermuth picked up a Saturday questionable tag for his calf, though the Steelers sound confident he suits up. DK Metcalf was cleared.
- Kenyon Sadiq looks set to suit up for the Jets after a concussion. He practiced without limits by the end of the week, so Mason Taylor stays in a blocking role.
- No Breece Hall for a third straight week, so Braelon Allen has the Jets' backfield. Chicago is without Kyle Monangai, which leaves D'Andre Swift with the work.
- The Chargers are missing both starting tackles and their center. That is the case for the Chiefs defense.
- Olave (illness) and Henderson (ankle) carry questionable tags but both look likely to suit up. Check inactives around 11:30 ET.
Stacks we like
Main stack: Carolina
| QB CAR Bryce Young · $5,700 · 17.3 · 2% | Rested, with his top targets and his right tackle all available, at 2% owned. |
| WR CAR Jalen Coker · $5,900 · 12.8 · 6% | Back from his injury and practicing in full. We think he surprises people today. |
| WR CAR Tetairoa McMillan · $7,300 · 14.5 · 4% | The other half of the stack. He caught 14 passes for 192 yards and two scores in his last game. |
| TE PHI Dallas Goedert · $3,900 · 11.0 · 13% | The bring-back. With Hurts and Barkley out, McKee's safest throw is to his tight end. |
Young is under 5% owned, which is a bigger swing than the 5% to 15% quarterbacks most winners use. That is the point: if Carolina scores, almost nobody has it. Pair him with one or both receivers and use Goedert as the piece from the other side.
Touchdown darts
| WR ATL Jahan Dotson · $3,500 · 4.8 · 2% | Atlanta's second receiver in a game projected for 52.5 points, at under 2% owned. A touchdown is all he needs. |
| TE PIT Pat Freiermuth · $4,400 · 8.6 · 1% | Four touchdowns in five games and Pittsburgh's top red zone target, at 1% owned. |
Freiermuth is questionable, so confirm he is active. The wind in Tampa is a reason to like a tight end near the goal line more than a deep receiver.
Leverage stack: New England
| QB NE Drake Maye · $6,600 · 21.4 · 5% | One of the best quarterbacks on the slate at 5% owned, hosting a banged-up Jets team. |
| WR NE A.J. Brown · $6,100 · 12.9 · 5% | Maye's new top receiver, at under 5% owned. |
Maye is owned right in the range most Milly-winning quarterbacks land in. Brown is questionable coming off IR, so confirm he is active first.
Player board
The chalk we would eat
| WR LAR Puka Nacua · $8,100 · 26.9 · 42% | The one player owned over 40% we want. Los Angeles is projected for 32 points, more than anyone, and winners usually carry one piece of chalk like this. |
| RB ATL Bijan Robinson · $8,700 · 27.6 · 26% | If you want a second chalk piece, make it him. Chicago is missing two defensive starters up front. |
Running backs
| RB CAR Chuba Hubbard · $6,300 · 15.9 · 18% | Carolina's lead back, though Trevor Etienne is back from IR and could take a few touches. Fits with or without the Panthers stack. |
| RB NYJ Braelon Allen · $5,700 · 15.4 · 19% | Every Jets carry is his with Hall out. Better for cash than tournaments. |
Defenses
| DST Panthers · $2,500 · 8.1 · 18% | Popular because they are cheap and facing a backup quarterback, and we are fine with that. If Bryce Young is your quarterback, use a different defense: winners almost never pair a quarterback with his own. |
| DST Chiefs · $3,600 · 9.7 · 7% | The Chargers are starting rookies at both tackles and center. Our favorite defense under 10% owned. |
Fades in tournaments
| DST Rams · $3,800 · 7.8 · 1% | The field is mostly passing on them, and so are we. At $3,800, a lot has to go right against an Arizona team that will throw all day from behind. |
| WR KC Xavier Worthy · $4,600 · 12.1 · 28% | Rashee Rice is out, so he is the most popular cheap receiver on the slate. Plenty of the field is betting on volume he has not turned into big games. |
| RB PHI Dameon Pierce · $5,100 · 12.1 · 7% | Running behind a patched-up line with a backup quarterback. Easy pass. |
GPP Core
Bryce Young, Jalen Coker, Puka Nacua and the Chiefs defense: our contrarian quarterback with the receiver we think surprises, the one chalk play we will eat, and a cheap defense in a great spot. $23,300 for the four.
Finish it yourself:
- Add McMillan or a Goedert bring-back, so Young has two of his own pass catchers or a piece from the other side.
- One more chalk piece at most. Bijan is our choice.
- One tight end, and one dart under 3% owned (Dotson or Freiermuth).
- Use the whole cap.
Cash Game Core
Puka Nacua, Kyren Williams and Braelon Allen, with the Panthers defense. In cash games, the most popular values are the safe choice, and nobody is projected to score more than the Rams.
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Build yours in the optimizer
Open the NFL optimizer, lock your core, and set a QB stack with one bring-back. Check the optimizer for refreshed player statuses Sunday morning.
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Good luck Sunday. Reply to this email with questions, or come talk lineups in the Discord.
Salaries are DraftKings Classic prices. Projections and ownership are Seeking Optimal's, as shown in the optimizer Sunday morning. Lines are sportsbook spreads and totals. Weather is the kickoff-hour forecast. Findings come from past DraftKings Milly Maker winners. Check inactives before lock. Play responsibly.
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