NFL Week 5 Main Slate
Skip the Desert, Go to Lambeau
Sunday · 11 games · DraftKings Classic · locks 1:00 ET
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Chalk game
DET @ ARI
54.5 total, 7 points above any other
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Our stack
Green Bay
Jordan Love at 4% owned
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Cheap defense
Jets
$2,700, Browns in the rain
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The slate
Implied team totals split each game total by the spread. Weather is the kickoff-hour forecast.
| Game | Total | Implied | Weather |
| DET @ ARI | 54.5 | DET 30 · ARI 24.5 | |
| CHI @ GB | 47.5 | CHI 24.5 · GB 23 | |
| LV @ NE | 45.5 | NE 24.5 · LV 21 | |
| SF @ SEA | 45.5 | SEA 24.25 · SF 21.25 | |
| CIN @ MIA | 43.5 | CIN 25.25 · MIA 18.25 | |
| IND @ PIT | 43.5 | PIT 23 · IND 20.5 | 74% chance of rain |
| MIN @ NO | 41.5 | MIN 22 · NO 19.5 | |
| NYG @ WAS | 41.5 | WAS 22.5 · NYG 19 | wind 14 mph, gusts 29 |
| DEN @ LAC | 41.5 | DEN 22.5 · LAC 19 | |
| CLE @ NYJ | 39.5 | NYJ 21 · CLE 18.5 | 88% chance of rain |
| HOU @ TEN | 37.5 | HOU 22.25 · TEN 15.25 | |
Detroit at Arizona is seven points clear of every other total, and the field knows it: the Arizona passing game and Jahmyr Gibbs are the most popular plays on the slate. Rain is likely in Pittsburgh and for Browns-Jets, and the wind picks up for Giants-Commanders.
What wins big tournaments
We studied the winning lineup from every DraftKings Milly Maker since 2021. This week's biggest contest is the $700K Play-Action, a field of more than 400,000 entries, so the same rules apply.
| Ownership | Winners averaged about 12% ownership per player, and the median winner had 1.5 players owned 30% or more. Eat one or two chalk plays, not five. |
| Quarterback | 61% of winners used a QB owned between 5% and 15%, and the median winning QB cost $6,350. Only 12% used a QB owned 15% or more. |
| Stacks | QB plus one pass catcher 41%, QB plus two 44%. 41% added a player from the other team. |
| Tight end and defense | 89% played exactly one tight end. The median winning defense cost $3,000. |
| Darts | 61% had a player owned under 3%. |
| Salary | Winners used basically the whole $50,000. |
See the winners for yourself. Perfect Lineups, part of Seeking Optimal Pro, shows the winning lineup and the best possible lineup for every DraftKings contest.
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The big decision: Lions at Cardinals
Jacoby Brissett (22%) and Michael Wilson (38%) are the two most popular cheap plays in Detroit at Arizona. They are great values, and that is exactly why we are taking them in cash games and single-entry contests and leaving them out of big tournaments. If they hit, a third of the field hits with them.
If you want one piece of this game in a tournament, make it Jahmyr Gibbs (32%). He has the highest projection on the slate, and winners usually carry one chalk player like him.
Injuries and who gains
- Marvin Harrison Jr. is reportedly being traded and is not expected to play for Arizona. More targets for Michael Wilson and Trey McBride, and even more people on them.
- Josh Jacobs is out for Green Bay. Expect Jordan Love to throw more, which helps his receivers.
- Chicago is missing a starting cornerback. Another reason we like Jordan Love and his receivers.
- Ladd McConkey is questionable and unlikely to play. Even if he suits up, expect a limited role, maybe as a decoy. With Quentin Johnston also out, Tre' Harris is the Chargers receiver to own.
- Ashton Jeanty is questionable. Our numbers now expect him to play. If he sits, Mike Washington Jr. ($4,200) takes over and turns into one of the chalkiest plays of the day, so check inactives around 11:30 ET.
- Breece Hall is out. Braelon Allen takes over the Jets' backfield.
- Kyle Monangai is out. D'Andre Swift is Chicago's lead back again and very popular.
- Ja'Marr Chase is questionable but trending toward playing. That makes Joe Burrow a real option. He is at 2% in our numbers today, and we expect that to climb to 4-5% with Chase in the lineup, which is still very low.
Stacks we like
Main stack: Green Bay
| QB GB Jordan Love · $5,700 · 16.6 · 4% | Underpriced and barely owned. The Packers are without Jacobs, so Love has to carry the Packers through the air. |
| WR GB Christian Watson · $6,400 · 14.6 · 8% | Love's big-play receiver, at single-digit ownership. |
| TE GB Tucker Kraft · $4,700 · 11.8 · 8% | A second piece if you want Love plus two. Winners played exactly one tight end, so he is your tight end in this build. |
| TE CHI Colston Loveland · $4,600 · 10.7 · 4% | Our bring-back. Chicago's tight end hasn't had a big game yet this season, and that is exactly why he is so lightly owned. One breakout game and he won't be this cheap or this ignored again. |
The one risk is wind: around 13 mph at kickoff with gusts in the low 20s. It is a reason to keep the stack to Love plus one or two, not to skip it.
Secondary stack: Cincinnati
| QB CIN Joe Burrow · $6,900 · 18.5 · 2% | If Chase plays, Burrow is the best quarterback nobody is playing. |
| RB CIN Chase Brown · $6,900 · 18.6 · 14% | Our favorite running back. Cincinnati's 25-point team total is the second highest on the slate, and he gets the work. |
Leverage stack: New England
| QB NE Drake Maye · $6,300 · 20.2 · 6% | Owned in the 5% to 15% range most Milly-winning quarterbacks land in, with one of the higher team totals on the slate. Pair him with his cheap receivers and you have a stack almost nobody else will. |
| TE LV Brock Bowers · $7,000 · 17.5 · 14% | The bring-back. New England is down four cornerbacks, so the Raiders should move the ball through their best pass catcher, and Maye has to keep pace. |
Player board
Running back
| RB DET Jahmyr Gibbs · $9,800 · 26.4 · 32% | The one chalk piece we would eat. |
| RB SF Christian McCaffrey · $8,200 · 20.1 · 9% | Under 10% owned for a 36-point ceiling. |
Tight end and defense
| TE LV Brock Bowers · $7,000 · 17.5 · 14% | Our pivot off Trey McBride, at less than half the ownership. |
| DST Jets · $2,700 · 8.2 · 10% | The cheapest defense we like, hosting a Browns offense, with rain in the forecast. |
Darts: under 3% owned, one per lineup
| WR SF Deebo Samuel Sr. · $5,500 · 12.2 · 2% | A cheap receiver with a 22-point ceiling. |
| WR SF Mike Evans · $6,500 · 12.6 · 2% | Same ceiling, under 2% owned. |
| RB HOU David Montgomery · $5,800 · 12.4 · 1% | Houston is favored against Tennessee, whose 15-point team total is the lowest of the day. A back on a team protecting a lead, at under 1% owned. |
| WR CIN Tee Higgins · $7,100 · 13.0 · 1% | The forgotten piece of the Burrow stack. Questionable, so confirm he is active, but almost nobody will have him. |
Fades in tournaments
| QB ARI Jacoby Brissett · $5,500 · 20.2 · 22% | Fine in cash. Too popular for a QB in a big field. |
| WR ARI Michael Wilson · $6,200 · 18.1 · 38% | Same story: great value, but the most popular receiver on the slate. |
GPP Core
Jordan Love, Christian Watson, Chase Brown and the Jets defense. A contrarian quarterback with his top receiver, the running back we like most, and a cheap defense in a good spot. $21,700 for the four.
Finish it yourself:
- Add one more Packer or a Chicago bring-back (Loveland or Luther Burden III).
- Eat one piece of chalk at most. Gibbs is our choice.
- One tight end, and one dart under 3% owned.
- Use the whole cap.
Cash Game Core
Jacoby Brissett, Michael Wilson and Jahmyr Gibbs. In cash games, the most popular values are the safe choice, and Detroit at Arizona has the highest total by a mile.
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Build yours in the optimizer
Open the NFL optimizer, lock your core, and set a QB stack with one bring-back. Check the optimizer for refreshed player statuses Sunday morning.
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Good luck Sunday. Reply to this email with questions, or come talk lineups in the Discord.
Salaries are DraftKings Classic prices. Projections and ownership are Seeking Optimal's, as shown in the optimizer. Lines are sportsbook spreads and totals. Weather is the kickoff-hour forecast. Findings come from past DraftKings Milly Maker winners. Check inactives before lock. Play responsibly.
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