NBA Main Slate Rundown
Opening Night Runs Through New York
Tuesday's 3-game slate · DraftKings Classic · locks 3:00 ET
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Best game
PHI @ NYK
232.5 total, top on the slate
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Best value
Holmgren
6.1 points per $1K
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Chalk to eat
Towns
40% owned, worth it
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Basketball is back. Three games, three tip times, and plenty of players in new jerseys. Every projection below starts from a minutes guess, and on opening night those guesses lean on last season's roles and beat writers. If a coach changes a rotation tonight, believe the minutes over the box score for the next few weeks. The first month is when the field is slowest to catch up.
The slate
Implied points split each total by the spread. Times are Eastern.
| Game | Tip | Total | Implied |
| BOS @ DET | 3:00 | 219.5 | BOS 110.5 · DET 109 |
| PHI @ NYK | 7:00 | 232.5 | PHI 114 · NYK 118.5 |
| OKC @ SAS | 9:30 | 230.5 | OKC 114.5 · SAS 116 |
No spread is wider than 4.5, so blowout risk is low and starters should play full minutes everywhere. The two night games carry the points. The afternoon game in Detroit has the lowest total by 11, and it locks first.
Build for late swap
DraftKings lets you change any player whose game hasn't started. That only helps if your late players sit in slots that accept almost anyone.
| 3:00 game | Put your Celtics and Pistons in PG, SG, SF, PF or C. They lock first, so they don't need flexible slots. |
| 7:00 and 9:30 | Fill G, F and UTIL with night-game players. If one is ruled out at 6:30, UTIL takes any position in his place. |
| Watch list | Philadelphia has three questionable players: Adem Bona, Dean Wade and Anfernee Simons. Three Sixers bigs are already out, so if Bona sits too, Joel Embiid and the remaining frontcourt soak up the center minutes. Check again before 7:00. |
Player board
Orange number is our projection, then projected ownership. Salaries are DraftKings Classic.
Studs ($9K+)
| C SAS Victor Wembanyama · $10,500 · 50.6 · 33% | The top projection on the slate by more than four points, with a ceiling past 70. He tips last, so he's also the easiest stud to swap. |
| PF BOS Jayson Tatum · $9,000 · 44.6 · 28% | The best point-per-dollar stud. With Jaylen Brown gone, more of Boston's offense runs through him. |
| PG OKC Shai Gilgeous-Alexander · $10,200 · 46.1 · 21% | Twelve points less popular than Wembanyama in the same game. A fine pivot if you want the late game without the chalk. |
| PG DET Cade Cunningham · $9,500 · 44.3 · 19% | Projects even with Tatum for $500 more and less ownership. He carries Detroit's offense, but it's the lowest total on the slate. |
Mid range ($6K to $9K)
| PF/C NYK Karl-Anthony Towns · $7,800 · 45.2 · 40% | Projects with the studs for $7,800, in the best game on the slate. The most popular player tonight, and he earns it. |
| PG NYK Jalen Brunson · $7,600 · 42.2 · 23% | New York's offense hasn't changed, so his role is the safest on the board. Under $8K for a 42-point projection. |
| SG SAS Stephon Castle · $6,800 · 36.5 · 23% | The second-best Spur on our board, for $3,700 less than Wembanyama. |
| C DET Jalen Duren · $6,500 · 35.7 · 16% | The best point-per-dollar play above $6K in the early game. Locks first, so put him at C. |
Value (under $6K)
| PF OKC Chet Holmgren · $5,900 · 35.7 · 20% | The best point-per-dollar play on the slate. He projects the same as Jalen Duren for $600 less. |
| PF NYK OG Anunoby · $5,300 · 30.9 · 24% | A starter in the top-total game for $5,300. Pairs naturally with Towns and Brunson. |
| C OKC Isaiah Hartenstein · $4,900 · 28.9 · 18% | Almost six points per $1K at center, and he tips last, so he works in UTIL. |
| PG/SG SAS Dylan Harper · $5,100 · 29.9 · 23% | Priced like a bench guard, projected near 30. That needs starter minutes, so watch how San Antonio splits the guard time. |
| PG/SG NYK Miles McBride · $4,000 · 20.9 · 11% | The best of the cheap guards, and G-eligible for a late slot. |
Leverage
| PG PHI Tyrese Maxey · $8,300 · 38.8 · 14% | The least popular of the four Sixers stars, in the highest total. A 56-point ceiling at 14% is the best upside per ownership point tonight. |
| SF/PF BOS Paul George · $6,300 · 27.3 · 8% | His first game in Boston, and single-digit ownership. If he plays a starter's role from the jump, he beats this projection. |
| SF OKC Jalen Williams · $6,600 · 35.3 · 17% | Projects within about a point of Castle and Holmgren in the same game, and the field likes both of them more. |
Fades
| SF PHI Jaylen Brown · $8,000 · 37.6 · 22% | Popular for his Sixers debut, but Towns projects almost eight points higher for $200 less. |
| PF PHI LeBron James · $7,500 · 34.1 · 19% | Four stars sharing one ball means someone gives up shots. Brunson costs $100 more and projects eight points higher. |
| PG/SG BOS Derrick White · $7,000 · 32.8 · 15% | Priced above Castle and Duren and projected below both, in the slate's lowest total. |
What wins 3-game NBA slates
We pulled the winning lineups from DraftKings NBA Classic slates of exactly three games over the last three seasons. Here is what they had in common.
| Ownership | Median total ownership was 217%, about 27% per player. On small slates you win with the right chalk, not by avoiding it. |
| One stud | 59% of winners had exactly one $9K+ player. Two studs and zero studs each won about 20% of the time. |
| Game shape | 4-3-1 30% · 4-2-2 19% · 5-2-1 15%. A 4-3-1 is four players from one game, three from another and one from the third. 83% used all three games. |
| One team | Three players from a single team was the most common top count (51%). Four or more happened 31% of the time. |
| Salary | Median salary left was $0, and 70% played at least one player under $4K. Use the whole cap. |
| See the winners for yourself. Perfect Lineups, part of Seeking Optimal Pro, shows the winning lineup and the best possible lineup for every DraftKings contest. |
Our core
Three players to build around, then fill the rest with these rules.
| PF/C NYK Karl-Anthony Towns · $7,800 · 45.2 · 40% |
| PF OKC Chet Holmgren · $5,900 · 35.7 · 20% |
| PG PHI Tyrese Maxey · $8,300 · 38.8 · 14% |
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| 1. Take one stud. Wembanyama or Gilgeous-Alexander keeps your swap options open; Tatum or Cunningham locks at 3:00. |
| 2. Four players from Sixers vs. Knicks, the top total. Split the rest between the other two games. |
| 3. Keep it to three from any one team in most builds. |
| 4. Spend to within $100 of the cap, and fit one player the field is ignoring, like Paul George. |
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Build yours in the optimizer
Open the NBA optimizer, lock your core, and edit any projection when a rotation changes. Our projections and ownership refresh through the afternoon as teams post their starters, so check back before 7:00.
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Good luck tonight. Reply to this email with questions, or come talk lineups in the Discord.
Salaries are DraftKings Classic prices. Projections and ownership are Seeking Optimal's, as shown in the optimizer Tuesday morning. Totals and spreads are sportsbook numbers. Confirm statuses before each lock. Play responsibly.
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