NBA Main Slate Rundown
Luka Tips Last, and Almost Nobody Has Him
Tuesday's 4-game slate · DraftKings Classic · locks 7:30 ET
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Best game
POR @ LAL
233.5 total, 1.5 spread
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Best value
Reed
6.3 points per $1K
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Chalk to fade
Sabonis
40% owned, 18.5-point dog
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Four games tonight, and we built this one for the $4 Four Point Play: 17,835 entries, 20 max, $6,000 to first. In a field that size you need a lineup nobody else has, so the question isn't who scores the most. It's who scores the most for the fewest people. Tonight that answer is sitting at the top of the salary list, in the last game to tip.
The slate
Implied points split each total by the spread. Times are Eastern.
| Game | Tip | Total | Implied |
| BKN @ BOS | 7:30 | 222.5 | BOS 117.5 · BKN 105 |
| DET @ NYK | 8:00 | 219.5 | NYK 112 · DET 107.5 |
| SAC @ SAS | 8:00 | 232.5 | SAS 125.5 · SAC 107 |
| POR @ LAL | 11:00 | 233.5 | LAL 117.5 · POR 116 |
The two best games are not alike. Portland at the Lakers has the highest total and a 1.5-point spread, so every starter should play a full game. San Antonio is favored by 18.5 over Sacramento, the widest spread on the slate, and a blowout there would cut fourth-quarter minutes on both sides. Boston is also a 12.5-point favorite in the first game to lock.
Build for late swap
DraftKings lets you change any player whose game hasn't started. Tonight the last game tips three and a half hours after the first, so the flexible slots matter more than usual.
| 7:30 game | Put your Celtics and Nets in PG, SG, SF, PF or C. They lock first and don't need flexible slots. |
| 11:00 game | Keep Luka, Lillard and the rest of Portland and the Lakers in G, F and UTIL. If a starter is ruled out at 10:30, you can still pivot. |
| Watch list | Derrick White is questionable and plays in the first game, so decide on him before 7:30. Ausar Thompson and Isaiah Joe are questionable for Detroit at 8:00. Scoot Henderson is questionable for Portland; if he sits, Lillard and Jrue Holiday get even more of the ball. |
Player board
Orange number is our projection, then projected ownership. Salaries are DraftKings Classic.
Studs ($9K+)
| PG LAL Luka Doncic · $11,300 · 51.8 · 15% | The second-best projection on the slate, in the best game, and the last to lock. At 15% he's the least popular stud on the board. This is the play. |
| C SAS Victor Wembanyama · $10,800 · 52.9 · 22% | The top projection tonight, and a fine stud in any build. The risk is the spread: if the Spurs are up 25 after three quarters, he sits. |
| SF/PF BOS Jayson Tatum · $9,500 · 48.6 · 23% | Steady, but Boston is a 12.5-point favorite and locks first. Fine as a second stud in a few builds. |
| PG DET Cade Cunningham · $9,700 · 44.5 · 16% | Projects seven points below Luka for $1,600 less, in the lowest total on the slate. |
Mid range ($6K to $9K)
| PG/SG POR Damian Lillard · $6,600 · 38.2 · 38% | The best point-per-dollar play above $6K. Shaedon Sharpe is out until March, so Portland's offense runs through him. Chalk worth eating, and he pairs with Luka. |
| PF/C NYK Karl-Anthony Towns · $8,300 · 45.5 · 29% | Projects like a stud for $8,300. New York's best play in a close game. |
| C LAL Walker Kessler · $7,300 · 37.4 · 23% | Playing through a finger injury with a splint. The Lakers' center in the best game, at 23%. |
| PG SAS De'Aaron Fox · $6,300 · 35.2 · 21% | The best point-per-dollar Spur. Same blowout caveat as Wembanyama. |
Value (under $6K)
| C DET Paul Reed · $5,200 · 32.5 · 22% | Jalen Duren is out for two weeks, so Reed starts at center for $5,200. Tied for the best value on the board. |
| PF/C SAC Precious Achiuwa · $5,000 · 31.4 · 28% | Sacramento is missing Keegan Murray and two backup centers, so he plays big minutes. Priced low enough to pay off even if the game gets away. |
| SG/SF LAL Ziaire Williams · $3,900 · 23.1 · 14% | The best player under $4K, and he tips last. |
| SF NYK Mikal Bridges · $5,000 · 28.1 · 14% | A $5,000 starter in a close game, and less popular than Josh Hart or OG Anunoby. |
Leverage
| PG/SG BKN Egor Demin · $5,100 · 24.5 · 3% | Projects like a $5,100 starter and almost nobody is on him. The best way to get different in the first game. |
| PG NYK Jalen Brunson · $8,100 · 39.8 · 13% | Projects within six points of Towns for $200 less, at less than half the ownership. |
| C POR Donovan Clingan · $6,300 · 31.5 · 9% | Portland's center in the best game, under 10% owned. A cheap way to stack the late game without Lillard. |
Fades
| C SAC Domantas Sabonis · $9,400 · 49.7 · 40% | The most popular player tonight, on the wrong side of the widest spread. If San Antonio runs away with it, his fourth quarter is on the bench. Luka projects two points higher at 25 points less ownership. |
| SF BKN Michael Porter Jr. · $7,100 · 34.1 · 22% | Brooklyn is a 12.5-point underdog. Lillard projects four points higher for $500 less. |
| SF/PF POR Deni Avdija · $7,800 · 38.8 · 19% | Fine on his own, but Towns projects almost seven points higher for $500 more, and Lillard is the better Blazer for the price. |
What wins 4-game NBA slates
These numbers come from Seeking Optimal Pro. We pull the winning lineup from DraftKings NBA Classic slates of exactly four games, and these are the large-field winners, the contests most like tonight's.
| Ownership | Median total ownership was 189%, about 24% per player, and the middle half landed between 140% and 231%. You don't need a lineup full of darts, just one or two. |
| One stud | 55% of winners had exactly one $9K+ player. Two studs won 26% of the time. |
| Game shape | 3-2-2-1 21% · 5-2-1 17%. 64% of winners had four or more players from one game, and over half skipped a game entirely. |
| One team | Three from one team was the most common top count (52%). Four happened 12% of the time. |
| Salary | Median salary left was $0, but 38% left $200 or more. Leaving money is fine if it buys you the right players. |
| See every winner yourself with Pro. Perfect Lineups shows the winning lineup and the best possible lineup for every DraftKings contest, so you can check how tonight's Four Point Play was won. |
Our core
Three players to build around, then fill the rest with these rules.
| PG LAL Luka Doncic · $11,300 · 51.8 · 15% |
| PG/SG POR Damian Lillard · $6,600 · 38.2 · 38% |
| C DET Paul Reed · $5,200 · 32.5 · 22% |
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| 1. One stud, and make it Luka in most of your lineups. Rotate Wembanyama into the rest; skip Sabonis. |
| 2. Four players from Portland vs. the Lakers. Luka and Lillard get you two; Clingan, Kessler or Ziaire Williams fill the others. |
| 3. No more than three from any one team. |
| 4. Aim for 150% to 230% total ownership, and fit one player under 5%, like Egor Demin. |
| 5. Across 20 entries, change your second and third games from lineup to lineup instead of copying one build. |
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Build yours in the optimizer
Open the NBA optimizer, lock your core, and edit any projection when a rotation changes. Our projections and ownership refresh as teams post their starters, so check back before 7:30 and again before the 11:00 tip.
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Good luck tonight. Reply to this email with questions, or come talk lineups in the Discord.
Salaries are DraftKings Classic prices. Projections and ownership are Seeking Optimal's, as shown in the optimizer Tuesday afternoon. Totals and spreads are sportsbook numbers. Confirm statuses before each lock. Play responsibly.
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