Sunday Night Showdown Rundown
Eagles at Commanders
Northwest Stadium · 8:20 ET · DraftKings Showdown
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Spread
WAS -6
we think Washington pulls away
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Total
40.5
implied 23.25 / 17.25
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Weather
50°F
dry, light wind
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What changed this week
- Philadelphia is short-handed. Jalen Hurts is on injured reserve, so Tanner McKee starts, and DeVonta Smith and Dontayvion Wicks are both out. Makai Lemon and Dallas Goedert are what's left of the passing game.
- Dameon Pierce is on injured reserve. Saquon Barkley should suit up after a limited week of practice, with Elijah Mitchell and Jaydon Blue behind him.
- Washington's depth chart has shifted too. Terry McLaurin and Jacory Croskey-Merritt are both on injured reserve. That makes Stefon Diggs Daniels's first read, Antonio Williams's role keeps growing, and Rachaad White carries the backfield.
- Clean conditions. Around 50 degrees and dry, with light wind. Nothing slows either team down.
Our read
Washington has the only quarterback here who's a threat to run, at home, against a team missing its starting quarterback and its top two receivers. We think the Commanders control this from start to finish. Our call is Commanders 27-10, and we're building most lineups 5-1 Washington. Philadelphia gets one piece in most builds, either Lemon or Goedert.
What wins a low-scoring blowout
We study the winning lineup from every DraftKings NFL showdown. Our 27-10 call lands in the low-scoring blowout bucket. Here's what those winners had in common.
| Team split | 5-1 toward the winner in 72% of winners. This is the one game shape where loading up on one team is the right call. |
| Captain position | RB 34% · WR 26% · QB 21% · DST 17%. The field has about 31% of its captains on Daniels, more than quarterbacks win the slot here. |
| Kicker and defense | A defense in 79% of winners, and it was the winning team's defense every time. A kicker in 53%. |
| Quarterbacks | One QB in 75% of winners. Daniels in the FLEX, no McKee. |
See the winners for yourself. Perfect Lineups, part of Seeking Optimal Pro, shows the winning lineup and the best possible lineup for every DraftKings contest.
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Roster construction, in order
5-1 Commanders › 4-2 Commanders
Counts are Commanders-Eagles. Your one Eagle is Lemon or Goedert. Add a second only in 4-2 builds.
Captain board
Salary is the captain price. Proj and ceiling are our FLEX numbers; multiply by 1.5 for the captain slot.
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1. Rachaad White (WAS RB) · $12,000 · 11.8 proj, 20.2 ceiling
Our favorite captain. The lead back on a 6-point home favorite, and he handles third downs and goal-line work. Pair him with Daniels in the FLEX and you're betting on the same Washington win as the field, without sharing the lineup with them. About 13% captain ownership.
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2. Antonio Williams (WAS WR) · $9,300 · 8.7 proj, 15.8 ceiling
The cheapest way to captain Washington's passing game, at a fraction of the field's attention. It leaves room for everything else. About 4% captain ownership.
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3. Commanders (WAS DST) · $6,000 · 8.8 proj, 13.1 ceiling
Defenses win the captain slot about one time in six in low-scoring blowouts, and almost nobody is playing one there. About 3% captain ownership.
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4. Stefon Diggs (WAS WR) · $13,500 · 11.4 proj, 19.8 ceiling
Washington's top target. Our pick for one lineup, not most. About 7% captain ownership.
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Player board (FLEX salaries)
Orange number is our FLEX projection, then projected ownership.
Core
| QB WAS Jayden Daniels · $10,400 · 19.1 · 60% | The best projection on the slate and the only quarterback who runs. In the FLEX in almost every lineup. |
| RB WAS Rachaad White · $8,000 · 11.8 · 39% | Captain him or play him in the FLEX. Either way he's in. |
| WR WAS Antonio Williams · $6,200 · 8.7 · 25% | Our favorite Washington receiver. A growing role, $2,800 cheaper than Diggs, and owned less. |
| DST WAS Commanders · $4,000 · 8.8 · 25% | The favorite's defense against a backup quarterback. Defenses show up in most low-scoring blowout winners. |
| K WAS Drew Stevens · $4,600 · 8.9 · 31% | Long Washington drives that stall end in his field goals. Pairs well with a White captain. |
Your one Eagle
| WR PHI Makai Lemon · $7,000 · 9.9 · 32% | McKee's top receiver with Smith and Wicks out. If Philadelphia has to throw, he gets the volume. |
| TE PHI Dallas Goedert · $7,400 · 11.5 · 43% | The safer target, but 43% of the field has him. Lemon is the less crowded choice. |
Value
| RB WAS Jeremy McNichols · $2,000 · 3.8 · 10% | Our favorite punt. A real role in Washington's backfield at $2,000. |
| RB PHI Jaydon Blue · $5,800 · 1.9 · 2% | If you're fading Saquon, this is the low-owned way to bet on a different Eagles back. A dart for one lineup. |
Fades
| QB PHI Tanner McKee · $8,800 · 13.9 · 47% | Nearly half the field, for a backup quarterback missing his top two receivers on the road. |
| RB PHI Saquon Barkley · $9,800 · 10.9 · 25% | $9,800 for a back who's been dinged up all week, projected under 11 points. Fade him if you're playing one or two lineups, and sprinkle him in if you're playing more. |
| RB PHI Elijah Mitchell · $6,800 · 5.3 · 14% | 14% owned at $6,800 for a backup back. If you want an Eagles runner other than Saquon, Blue is the cheaper, lower-owned bet. |
| TE PHI Eli Stowers · $800 · 1.4 · 2% | Third in line at tight end. Not enough role to matter. |
GPP Core
Captain Rachaad White with Jayden Daniels and the Commanders defense in the FLEX: our favorite captain, the best player on the slate, and the defense that shows up in most winners in this game shape. $26,400 for the three.
Finish it yourself. Add Antonio Williams and Drew Stevens, then one Eagle: Makai Lemon or Dallas Goedert. That's a 5-1 Commanders build. Leave McKee and Saquon out.
The Diggs lineup. Swap Williams for Stefon Diggs in one lineup. Same build, with Washington's top target.
Different captains, same script. Captain Antonio Williams or the Commanders defense, keep Daniels and White in the FLEX, and use McNichols to make the salary work. |
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Build it in two clicks
Open the NFL Showdown optimizer, click Set Game Script, and enter 27-10 Commanders. The optimizer applies the constraints from the data above. Lock White at captain and let it fill the rest.
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Good luck tonight. Reply to this email with questions, or come talk lineups in the Discord.
Salaries are DraftKings Showdown prices. Projections and ownership are Seeking Optimal's, as shown in the optimizer Sunday afternoon. Lines are sportsbook spreads and totals. Game-script findings come from past DraftKings NFL showdown winners. Check inactives before lock. Play responsibly.
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