Monday Night Showdown Rundown
Cowboys at Eagles
Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia · 8:15 ET · DraftKings Showdown
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Spread
DAL -4.5
a one-score game
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Total
43.5
implied 24 / 19.5
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Weather
Dry
mid 50s, light wind
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What to know
- Tanner McKee starts again. With Jalen Hurts sidelined by a blood-clot diagnosis, McKee makes his second straight start.
- Philadelphia is down two receivers. DeVonta Smith and Dontayvion Wicks are out, so rookie Makai Lemon and Darius Cooper move into the top roles, with Dallas Goedert as McKee's safety valve.
- Saquon Barkley should be back. He is questionable after two missed games with a sore hamstring, but he practiced in full Saturday. Dameon Pierce is priced like Barkley will sit.
- Dallas is healthy where it counts. Prescott, Pickens, Lamb and Javonte Williams are all good to go. KaVontae Turpin is out.
- Good weather. Dry and in the mid 50s at kickoff with light wind, so both kickers are in play.
Our read
Dallas is a 4.5-point road favorite, and we agree: the Cowboys have the better offense by a wide margin. We expect Prescott, Pickens and Javonte Williams to carry a score like 27-20. We are lower than the field on CeeDee Lamb, since we think the Eagles commit to taking him away. The Eagles keep it close through the air. McKee should clear 200 passing yards against a Dallas pass defense we see little reason to trust, and Goedert, Cooper and a returning Barkley are the ones who benefit. That same view keeps the Cowboys defense out of our lineups. The Eagles defense is only a dart, for a pick or two off Prescott.
What wins a close, middle-total game
These numbers come straight from Seeking Optimal Pro. We study the winning lineup from every DraftKings NFL showdown, and Pro members get this same breakdown for any final score they pick. Our 27-20 Cowboys call lands in the close, mid-scoring bucket. Here is what those winners had in common.
| Captain position | WR 37% · RB 32% · QB 17% · TE 12%. The field's top captains are Lamb and Prescott, at 19% and 16%. Quarterbacks win this slot least often of the main positions, and we are skipping them entirely. |
| Quarterbacks | One QB in 46% of winners and both in 46%. Playing Prescott and McKee together is as common a winning shape as one quarterback. |
| Team split | 3-3 won 36% of the time and 4-2 toward the winner 34%. Only 3% went 5-1. |
| Kicker and defense | A kicker in 36% and a defense in 19%. A kicker is a fine finishing piece. A defense is the exception here, which fits our plan to skip the Cowboys. |
| Salary | Winners averaged about $49,200, and a quarter of them came in at $48,750 or less. Leaving salary unused is normal, and tonight it is useful. |
Run your own game script with Pro. Enter any final score in the optimizer's Set Game Script to see this table for that game and apply it to your builds in one click. Then open the actual winning lineups in Perfect Lineups.
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Roster construction, in order
3-3 › 4-2 Cowboys › 4-2 Eagles
Counts are Cowboys-Eagles. We like enough Eagles pieces that 3-3 comes first, with 4-2 Cowboys right behind it.
Captain board
No quarterbacks. Neither Prescott nor McKee adds much as a runner, so their points depend on someone else catching the ball, and that someone makes the better captain. Salary is the captain price. Proj and ceiling are our FLEX numbers; multiply by 1.5 for the captain slot.
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1. George Pickens (DAL WR) · $13,500 · 12.8 proj, 22.1 ceiling
Our captain. We expect Philadelphia to shade its coverage toward Lamb, which leaves Pickens the matchup to win. He is also $3,000 cheaper than a Lamb captain, so Javonte and Goedert both fit. About 10% captain ownership.
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2. Javonte Williams (DAL RB) · $15,900 · 18.0 proj, 29.7 ceiling
The lead back on the favorite, and the captain for a Dallas win built on the ground. About 13% captain ownership.
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3. Saquon Barkley (PHI RB) · $14,400 · 14.7 proj, 24.1 ceiling
Our favorite Philadelphia captain. With McKee under center and the receivers missing, the offense should run through him, and he catches passes too. He practiced in full Saturday. About 10% captain ownership.
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4. Dallas Goedert (PHI TE) · $9,600 · 12.9 proj, 22.1 ceiling
Our Eagles captain. With Philadelphia short two receivers, he is McKee's most reliable target. About 11% captain ownership.
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| Play to win, not to split. DraftKings set Philadelphia's prices before the injury news, so the cheap Eagles receivers make it easy to fit every star. Expect a lot of the same lineup: Lamb, Prescott, Barkley and Goedert with a cheap Eagles receiver, filled to $50,000. If that one wins, first place gets split many ways. We would rather be alone at the top. That means no quarterback captain, Pickens or Javonte over Lamb, and some salary left on the table. |
Player board (FLEX salaries)
Orange number is our FLEX projection, then projected ownership.
Cowboys core
| QB DAL Dak Prescott · $10,400 · 18.5 · 57% | Our quarterback. Pair him with Pickens before Lamb. |
| WR DAL George Pickens · $9,000 · 12.8 · 34% | If he is not your captain, he is in your FLEX. |
| RB DAL Javonte Williams · $10,600 · 18.0 · 44% | The workhorse on the favorite. Pairs with Pickens in 4-2 Cowboys builds. |
Eagles we like
| QB PHI Tanner McKee · $8,600 · 14.9 · 36% | We like him to throw for 200-plus yards. Both quarterbacks together is a normal winning shape. |
| TE PHI Dallas Goedert · $6,400 · 12.9 · 43% | McKee's first read with the receiver room this thin. |
| RB PHI Saquon Barkley · $9,600 · 14.7 · 36% | Back from the hamstring and still the most explosive Eagle. |
| WR PHI Darius Cooper · $3,200 · 9.0 · 24% | A starting role at a punt price. One of our favorite values. |
| WR PHI Makai Lemon · $3,800 · 9.3 · 29% | The rookie becomes the top receiver by default. |
Kickers and defenses
| K DAL Brandon Aubrey · $5,400 · 9.3 · 25% | The top kicker projection, and he scores in a Dallas win either way. |
| K PHI Jake Elliott · $4,800 · 7.7 · 16% | We like him for two or more field goals. Eagles drives that stall in Dallas territory end with his leg. |
| DST PHI Eagles · $3,400 · 5.8 · 12% | A dart only, for a turnover or two. |
Darts
| WR PHI Elijah Moore · $800 · 4.3 · 9% | A red-zone dart at nearly the minimum salary. One touchdown and he pays off. Use him to be different, not to squeeze in every star. |
Lower than the field
| WR DAL CeeDee Lamb · $11,000 · 19.1 · 51% | Still the top projection, but we expect the Eagles to key on him. Fine in the FLEX, not our captain. |
Fades
| DST DAL Cowboys · $4,000 · 7.7 · 16% | If McKee throws for 200 like we expect, the Dallas defense is not scoring much. |
| RB PHI Dameon Pierce · $7,600 · 5.0 · 4% | Priced as if Barkley sits. If Barkley plays, Pierce is a backup. |
GPP Core
Captain George Pickens with Dak Prescott and Dallas Goedert in the FLEX: the Dallas receiver we expect to win his matchup, his quarterback, and the Eagle who should see the most targets. $30,300 for the three.
Finish it yourself. Add Javonte Williams, then two cheap Eagles: Cooper and Lemon, or Elijah Moore with Elliott. Swap Aubrey in for Elliott to go 4-2 Cowboys. Every one of those finishes comes in under $48,000, which is the point. Leave the Cowboys defense out.
| If the Eagles win instead. Captain Goedert or Barkley, play McKee with Cooper and Elliott, and keep Pickens or Javonte in the FLEX as the bring-back. |
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Build it in two clicks
Open the NFL Showdown optimizer, click Set Game Script, and enter 27-20 Cowboys. The optimizer applies the constraints from the data above. Lock Pickens at captain and exclude the Cowboys defense.
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Good luck Monday night. Reply to this email with questions, or come talk lineups in the Discord.
Salaries are DraftKings Showdown prices. Projections and ownership are Seeking Optimal's, as shown in the optimizer Monday afternoon. Lines are sportsbook spreads and totals; weather is the kickoff-hour forecast. Game-script findings come from past DraftKings NFL showdown winners. Check inactives before lock. Play responsibly.
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