Sunday Morning Showdown Rundown
Colts vs. Commanders in London
Tottenham Hotspur Stadium · 9:30 ET · DraftKings Showdown
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Spread
IND -4.5
one score
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Total
46.5
implied 25.5 / 21
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Weather
69°, dry
light wind in London
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What changed this week
- Marcus Mariota starts for Washington. Jayden Daniels is out with the elbow injury he suffered in Week 2.
- Washington is thin. Running back Rachaad White is out, which hands the backfield to Jacory Croskey-Merritt. Terry McLaurin is doubtful with a hamstring injury, which makes Stefon Diggs the top receiver if McLaurin sits.
- Keenan Allen is out for Indianapolis. That concentrates the passing game on Josh Downs and Tyler Warren.
- An early lock. This one kicks off at 9:30 ET in London. Set your lineups before you go to bed or first thing in the morning, and check McLaurin's status before lock.
What wins in this game script
We study the winning lineup from every DraftKings NFL showdown. A 25-21 game lands in our back-and-forth, one-score bucket. Here is what those winners had in common.
| Captain position | WR 39% · RB 32% · QB 16% · TE 12%. Pass catchers win captain more than anyone, and tight ends show up more here than in most scripts. |
| Captain's team | 56% from the winner, 44% from the loser. |
| Quarterbacks | One QB 46% · both QBs 46% · no QB 9%. Playing both is as common as playing one. |
| Team split | 3 or 4 players from the winning team in 70% of lineups. Five from the winner only 4%. |
| Defense and kicker | A defense in only 19% of winners. A kicker in 37%. |
| Salary | Middle half spent $48,700 to $49,700. |
| Ownership | Total ownership averaged 246%, about 41% per slot. |
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Roster construction, in order
4-2 Colts › 3-3 › 2-4 Commanders › 5-1 Colts
Counts are Colts-Commanders. In a 4.5-point game, the 3-3 is almost as live as 4-2, and five from one side rarely wins.
Captain board
Salary is the captain price. Proj and ceiling are our FLEX numbers; multiply by 1.5 for the captain slot.
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1. Josh Downs, WR IND · $13,200 · 15.0 proj, 28.4 ceiling
WR is the most common winning captain in this script, and with Keenan Allen out he is Indianapolis' top receiver. Only about 9% of the field will captain him.
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2. Jonathan Taylor, RB IND · $17,400 · 21.7 proj, 36.4 ceiling
The top projection and ceiling on the slate, as the lead back on the favorite. He is also the chalk captain at about 23%. Play him there, just not everywhere.
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3. Tyler Warren, TE IND · $12,900 · 15.3 proj, 30.9 ceiling
Tight ends captain more winners in this script than most, and he has the second-highest ceiling of any non-quarterback. About 10% captain ownership.
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4. Jacory Croskey-Merritt, RB WAS · $10,200 · 13.2 proj, 23.9 ceiling
Washington's lead back with Rachaad White out, and the losing side wins captain 44% of the time in this script. About 7% captain ownership.
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5. Stefon Diggs, WR WAS · $12,600 · 13.4 proj, 24.2 ceiling
Our leverage captain, at about 4% captain ownership. If McLaurin sits, he is Mariota's clear first read.
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| What about the quarterbacks? Daniel Jones (52%) and Mariota (46%) are two of the most popular FLEX plays on the slate, but only 16% of winners in this script had a QB captain. Use them in the FLEX, and don't be afraid to play both. |
Player board (FLEX salaries)
Orange number is our FLEX projection, then projected ownership.
Core
| RB IND Jonathan Taylor · $11,600 · 21.7 · 48% | The best play on the slate. Heavy volume on the favorite. |
| QB IND Daniel Jones · $10,400 · 18.6 · 52% | The higher-projected quarterback, with the better offense around him. |
| WR IND Josh Downs · $8,800 · 15.0 · 32% | Gets Keenan Allen's targets. |
| TE IND Tyler Warren · $8,600 · 15.3 · 37% | A 30-point ceiling at tight end. |
Mid tier
| QB WAS Marcus Mariota · $9,800 · 16.6 · 46% | Starting for Daniels. His legs give him a floor, and both QBs win together often in this script. |
| RB WAS Jacory Croskey-Merritt · $6,800 · 13.2 · 32% | The cheapest way into Washington's offense with real volume. |
| WR WAS Stefon Diggs · $8,400 · 13.4 · 20% | Less owned than any of the Colts' top three, and the top Commanders receiver if McLaurin sits. |
| K IND Spencer Shrader · $5,000 · 8.9 · 34% | Kickers show up in more than a third of winners here. The Colts' kicker on the favorite. |
Value
| WR WAS Antonio Williams · $3,800 · 7.9 · 11% | A Commanders receiver at $3,800 with a 16-point ceiling. |
| WR IND Laquon Treadwell · $3,200 · 7.3 · 9% | A cheap Colts receiver with Allen out, at $3,200. |
| WR WAS Treylon Burks · $2,000 · 5.0 · 7% | The best points per dollar of anyone projected over 4, at $2,000. |
| TE WAS Chig Okonkwo · $4,400 · 8.4 · 18% | A cheaper tight end for Commanders builds. |
Fades
| DST Colts · $4,000 · 6.7 · 14% | Defenses appear in only about 1 in 5 winners in this script, and this one costs $4,000. |
| DST Commanders · $3,600 · 6.0 · 11% | Same reason, and it faces the stronger offense. |
GPP Core
Captain Josh Downs with Daniel Jones and Jacory Croskey-Merritt: the most common winning captain position, the quarterback throwing to him, and a bring-back from the Commanders' backfield. $30,400 for the three.
Finish it yourself. Add three more with at least one more Commander, keep the Colts at four or fewer, and land between $48,700 and $49,700 in salary.
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Build it in two clicks
Open the NFL Showdown optimizer, click Set Game Script, and enter 25-21 Colts. The optimizer applies the constraints from the data above. For a few upset builds, run it again with 25-21 Commanders.
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Good luck this morning. Reply to this email with questions, or come talk lineups in the Discord.
Salaries are DraftKings Showdown prices. Projections and ownership are Seeking Optimal's, as shown in the optimizer Saturday evening. Lines are sportsbook spreads and totals. Weather is the kickoff-hour forecast. Game-script findings come from past DraftKings NFL showdown winners. Check inactives before lock. Play responsibly.
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