Sunday Night Showdown Rundown
Chiefs at Seahawks
Lumen Field, Seattle · 8:20 ET · DraftKings Showdown
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Spread
SEA -3
a one-score game
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Total
42.5
implied 22.75 / 19.75
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Weather
Dry
about 52°, light wind
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What to know
- Rashee Rice is out again. Kansas City's targets go to Xavier Worthy, Travis Kelce and Kenneth Walker, with Jalen Royals stepping into more snaps.
- Zach Charbonnet is out. Emanuel Wilson leads a thin Seattle backfield, with George Holani and Velus Jones Jr. behind him.
- Kelce will play. An ankle kept him to limited practices, but he is not listed for the game. Mahomes practiced in full.
- Walker gets his revenge game. Seattle drafted him, and we expect Kansas City to design touches for him as a runner and out of the backfield.
- No weather worries. The forecast is dry, in the low 50s, with little wind. Kickers are fully in play.
Our read
The books have Seattle by three. We have the Chiefs winning a tight, low-scoring game, something like 20-17. Sam Darnold has been one of the league's least efficient starters this year, with seven interceptions and a QBR near the bottom of the league, and we expect Kansas City to send pressure all night. Seattle's run game was already ordinary and is now without Charbonnet, against a Chiefs defense that has held opponents under 90 rushing yards a game. That puts the Chiefs defense in play and makes Darnold, at 42% owned, our fade. We still like his pass catchers, who can score without him being efficient.
What wins a close, low-scoring game
We study the winning lineup from every DraftKings NFL showdown. A one-score game that finishes in the 30s or low 40s lands in our close, low-scoring bucket. Here is what those winners had in common.
| Captain position | WR 37% · RB 34% · QB 13% · TE 8%. The field's top captains are Smith-Njigba and Walker, at 28% and 20%. |
| Quarterbacks | One QB in 59% of winners, both in 30%, and none in 11%. Leaving Darnold out is the most common winning shape. |
| Team split | 3-3 and 4-2 toward the winner tie at 34%. 5-1 won 13% of the time. |
| Kicker and defense | A kicker in 46% and a defense in 43%, far more often than in higher-scoring games. Nearly nine in ten of those defenses came from the winning team. |
| Salary | Winners averaged about $49,000, so leaving salary unused is normal. |
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Roster construction, in order
4-2 Chiefs › 3-3 › 4-2 Seahawks
Counts are Chiefs-Seahawks. We have Kansas City winning and Walker at captain, so 4-2 Chiefs comes first.
Captain board
Salary is the captain price. Proj and ceiling are our FLEX numbers; multiply by 1.5 for the captain slot.
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1. Kenneth Walker III (KC RB) · $18,000 · 19.7 proj, 31.7 ceiling
Our captain. Kansas City's best projection, a role as both runner and receiver, and a team motivated to feature him against his old club. About 20% captain ownership, so he is popular but not the field's first choice.
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2. Xavier Worthy (KC WR) · $10,500 · 12.1 proj, 21.0 ceiling
Our leverage captain. With Rice out he is Mahomes' top receiver, and receivers win this slot more than any other position. About 7% captain ownership.
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3. Travis Kelce (KC TE) · $12,000 · 11.8 proj, 20.7 ceiling
Mahomes' most trusted target with Rice sidelined. Under 7% captain ownership.
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4. AJ Barner (SEA TE) · $6,900 · 8.2 proj, 14.9 ceiling
The cheap Seattle captain. Quick throws to the tight end are Darnold's best answer to the blitz. About 3% captain ownership.
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Player board (FLEX salaries)
Orange number is our FLEX projection, then projected ownership.
Core
| QB KC Patrick Mahomes · $10,400 · 16.6 · 45% | Our quarterback. With Rice out, his volume runs through Worthy, Kelce and Walker. |
| RB KC Kenneth Walker III · $12,000 · 19.7 · 48% | If he is not your captain, he is in your FLEX. |
| WR KC Xavier Worthy · $7,000 · 12.1 · 33% | Kansas City's lead receiver tonight, and the best pairing with Mahomes. |
| TE KC Travis Kelce · $8,000 · 11.8 · 32% | The ankle limited his practice week, not his status. |
Seattle pass catchers
| WR SEA Jaxon Smith-Njigba · $11,600 · 24.3 · 46% | The top projection on the slate. He can pay off on volume even with Darnold struggling. |
| TE SEA AJ Barner · $4,600 · 8.2 · 25% | Our favorite Seattle piece for the price. Short throws over the middle beat the blitz. |
| WR SEA Cooper Kupp · $5,600 · 7.4 · 17% | A cheaper Seattle receiver for builds that cannot fit Smith-Njigba. |
Kickers and defenses
| DST KC Chiefs · $3,800 · 7.2 · 21% | Our defense. Pressure on a turnover-prone quarterback in a game we see staying low. |
| K KC Harrison Butker · $4,800 · 7.5 · 22% | Stalled drives in a close game mean field goals. Pairs with a Chiefs win. |
| K SEA Jason Myers · $5,200 · 8.9 · 27% | Pairs with the Chiefs defense, not against it. If Darnold's drives stall under pressure, Seattle's points come from his leg. |
Value
| RB SEA Emanuel Wilson · $6,400 · 10.5 · 22% | Seattle's lead back with Charbonnet out, though Kansas City's run defense caps the ceiling. |
| WR KC Jalen Royals · $3,400 · 6.1 · 18% | More snaps with Rice out, at a salary that fits Walker at captain. |
| RB SEA Velus Jones Jr. · $1,400 · 3.1 · 4% | The punt. He gets backup work in a thin backfield. |
Fades
| QB SEA Sam Darnold · $9,400 · 15.8 · 42% | Nearly half the field, against a defense set to blitz him. Our fade. |
GPP Core
Captain Kenneth Walker III with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs defense in the FLEX: the back with something to prove, the quarterback, and the defense we expect to pressure Darnold. $32,200 for the three.
Finish it yourself. Add Worthy or Kelce, then one or two Seattle pass catchers as the bring-back: Barner, Kupp or Smith-Njigba if he fits. Butker or Myers work if you have the salary. Leave Darnold out and aim for a 4-2 Chiefs split. If you think Kansas City wins comfortably, captain Worthy instead and go 5-1 Chiefs.
| If the Seahawks win instead. Captain Smith-Njigba or Barner, add Emanuel Wilson and the Seahawks defense, and play Walker in the FLEX as the bring-back. We would still rather have Darnold's receivers than Darnold. |
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Build it in two clicks
Open the NFL Showdown optimizer, click Set Game Script, and enter 20-17 Chiefs. The optimizer applies the constraints from the data above. Lock Walker at captain and exclude Darnold.
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Good luck Sunday night. Reply to this email with questions, or come talk lineups in the Discord.
Salaries are DraftKings Showdown prices. Projections and ownership are Seeking Optimal's, as shown in the optimizer Sunday afternoon. Lines are sportsbook spreads and totals; weather is the kickoff-hour forecast. Game-script findings come from past DraftKings NFL showdown winners. Check inactives before lock. Play responsibly.
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