TNF Showdown Rundown
Buccaneers at Cowboys
Arlington · 8:15 ET · DraftKings Showdown
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Spread
DAL -8.5
opened at -10
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Total
47.5
implied 28 / 19.5
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Weather
Indoors
roof expected closed
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What changed this week
- No Mayfield for Tampa. Jalon Daniels starts again after debuting last week. In that debut, he threw two interceptions but ran eight times for 55 yards, and he leaned on Chris Godwin (seven targets) and Cade Otton (six).
- Tampa's secondary is short-handed. Antoine Winfield Jr., their best defensive back, and starting corner Benjamin Morrison won't play, which opens things up for Dak Prescott's receivers.
- Dallas' run defense is the soft spot. The Cowboys rank near the bottom against the run and have allowed the most rushing yards to quarterbacks this year, which is good news for Daniels' legs.
- Jonathan Mingo is questionable with an illness. He has seen only a handful of targets, so it barely moves the DFS needle.
- The roof should be closed in Arlington. No weather to worry about.
What wins when the favorite pulls away
We study the winning lineup from every DraftKings NFL showdown. We expect Dallas to win comfortably, which puts this game in our comfortable win bucket. Here is what those winners had in common.
| Captain position | WR 46% · QB 25% · RB 21% · TE 7%. Receivers win captain almost half the time. |
| Captain's team | 68% from the winner. On Thursdays it has been even more lopsided, about three in four. |
| Team split | 4-2 toward the winner in 46% of lineups, 3-3 in 36%, and 5-1 in 11%. |
| Quarterbacks | One QB 50% · both QBs 46%. Daniels' rushing makes him a fine second QB. |
| Defense and kicker | Each showed up in about 32% of winners. The favorite's defense is the one that wins. |
| Salary | Middle half spent $48,725 to $49,700. |
| The Thursday catch. Thursday games have been blowouts less often than Sunday games, and a lot of them finish within one score. Keep a few 3-3 builds in case Tampa hangs around. |
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Roster construction, in order
4-2 Cowboys › 3-3 › 5-1 Cowboys
Counts are Cowboys-Buccaneers. We expect Dallas' offense to control this game, but Thursday games stay closer than the spread suggests often enough to keep 3-3 in the mix.
Captain board
Salary is the captain price. Proj and ceiling are our FLEX numbers; multiply by 1.5 for the captain slot.
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1. CeeDee Lamb, WR DAL · $17,700 · 20.8 proj, 37.0 ceiling
Receivers on the favorite are the most common winning captain in this script, and he is Dak's top target against a secondary missing two starters. About 19% captain ownership.
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2. Dak Prescott, QB DAL · $15,600 · 21.9 proj, 34.7 ceiling
The top projection on the slate, and quarterbacks captain a quarter of winners in this script. About 21% captain ownership.
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3. George Pickens, WR DAL · $14,100 · 14.0 proj, 27.0 ceiling
Our leverage captain. Same matchup as Lamb, $3,600 cheaper at captain, and the field will build around Lamb instead. About 8% captain ownership.
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4. Javonte Williams, RB DAL · $16,200 · 19.2 proj, 34.3 ceiling
Dallas' lead back, but Tampa is one of the toughest run defenses in the league. We would play him less than the field at captain. About 14% captain ownership.
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5. Jalon Daniels, QB TB · $12,900 · 16.0 proj, 25.1 ceiling
If Tampa keeps it close, it will be because of his legs against a Dallas defense that has struggled with running quarterbacks. About 11% captain ownership.
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6. Emeka Egbuka, WR TB · $12,300 · 10.2 proj, 20.5 ceiling
The captain for a Tampa comeback. If the Bucs fall behind, Daniels has to throw, and Egbuka has the most upside of Tampa's receivers even though Godwin saw more short targets last week. About 3% captain ownership.
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Player board (FLEX salaries)
Orange number is our FLEX projection, then projected ownership.
Cowboys core
| QB DAL Dak Prescott · $10,400 · 21.9 · 57% | The best play on the slate in either slot. |
| WR DAL CeeDee Lamb · $11,800 · 20.8 · 48% | Dak's top target in the best spot on the slate. |
| WR DAL George Pickens · $9,400 · 14.0 · 28% | The cheaper way into the same passing game. |
| TE DAL Jake Ferguson · $6,400 · 9.1 · 21% | Tampa has had trouble covering tight ends, and he is $6,400. |
Buccaneers
| QB TB Jalon Daniels · $8,600 · 16.0 · 41% | Turnover risk, but his rushing gives him a floor most backup quarterbacks don't have. |
| WR TB Chris Godwin Jr. · $7,200 · 9.5 · 17% | His most-targeted receiver in that first start. |
| TE TB Cade Otton · $4,400 · 8.5 · 24% | Right behind Godwin in targets, at $4,400. |
| RB TB Bucky Irving · $8,400 · 13.1 · 21% | Tampa's lead back, but he did not see a target in Daniels' first start. |
Value
| WR DAL Ryan Flournoy · $3,800 · 8.7 · 28% | A $3,800 Cowboys receiver with a ceiling near 19 points. |
| WR TB Ted Hurst III · $2,800 · 4.8 · 16% | A $2,800 bring-back with big-play speed. He splits snaps, so treat him as a GPP piece, not a cash lock. |
| RB TB Kenny Gainwell · $4,000 · 7.8 · 14% | Tampa's pass-catching back at $4,000. |
| RB DAL Tyler Goodson · $2,000 · 3.8 · 8% | Javonte Williams' backup at $2,000. If Dallas builds a lead and runs out the clock, the late carries go somewhere. |
Defense and kicker
| DST Cowboys · $4,800 · 8.3 · 18% | Daniels threw two picks in his debut. Dallas has not intercepted many passes this year, so play them in some lineups, not most. |
| K DAL Brandon Aubrey · $5,400 · 10.0 · 31% | A long-range kicker on the favorite, if you need a salary saver. |
GPP Core
Captain George Pickens with Dak Prescott and Cade Otton: the leverage receiver on the favorite, the quarterback throwing to him, and a cheap bring-back who soaked up targets in Daniels' first start. $28,900 for the three.
Finish it yourself. Add three more and keep it 4-2 Cowboys: one more Cowboy (Lamb, Ferguson or Flournoy) and two more Buccaneers or the Cowboys defense. Land between $48,725 and $49,700 in salary.
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Build it in two clicks
Open the NFL Showdown optimizer, click Set Game Script, and enter 30-20 Cowboys. The optimizer applies the constraints from the data above. For a few closer builds, run it again with 24-20 Cowboys.
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Good luck tonight. Reply to this email with questions, or come talk lineups in the Discord.
Salaries are DraftKings Showdown prices. Projections and ownership are Seeking Optimal's, as shown in the optimizer Thursday afternoon. Lines are sportsbook spreads and totals. Game-script findings come from past DraftKings NFL showdown winners. Check inactives before lock. Play responsibly.
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