Monday Night Showdown Rundown
Bills at Rams
Inglewood · 8:15 ET · DraftKings Showdown
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Spread
LAR -3.5
our pick: LA covers
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Total
54.5
implied 29 / 25.5
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Weather
Covered
roof over SoFi
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What changed this week
- DJ Moore is inactive. The shoulder kept him out. Keon Coleman should be on the field for almost every pass play, and Khalil Shakir becomes Allen's top wide receiver.
- No Joshua Palmer either, so rookie Skyler Bell makes his first NFL appearance at $200, and Trent Sherfield was called up from the practice squad.
- Colby Parkinson returns after sitting out last week. Terrance Ferguson remains on IR, leaving Los Angeles with Higbee, Parkinson and Davis Allen at tight end.
- Buffalo loses Ed Oliver in the middle of its defensive line. That matters for Kyren Williams.
- The line climbed. Rams -3 became -3.5 and the total went from 53.5 to 54.5.
Our read
Two elite teams, and we still expect a one-score game. But with DJ Moore out, Buffalo is down its top two outside receivers against the defense that has been hardest to pass on all year. Our pick: Los Angeles covers the 3.5. The edge tonight is less about who wins and more about how you get different, because Josh Allen and Puka Nacua are the best players on the board and everyone knows it.
What wins in a close shootout
We study the winning lineup from every DraftKings NFL showdown. A one-score game with a total in the 50s lands in our close shootout bucket. Here is what those winners had in common.
| Captain position | WR 36% · QB 26% · RB 21% · TE 17%. No other game type has more tight end captains. |
| Captain's team | 57% from the winner. Barely better than half, so a captain from the losing side is fine. |
| Quarterbacks | Both QBs 54% · one QB 40%. Allen and Stafford together is the most common shape. |
| Team split | 3-3 in 56%. 4-2 toward the winner 21%, 4-2 toward the loser 17%. 5-1 almost never wins. |
| Kicker and defense | A kicker in 39%, more than most people play. A defense in only 8%. |
| Salary | Middle half spent $49,000 to $49,900. |
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Roster construction, in order
3-3 › 4-2 Rams › 4-2 Bills
Counts are Rams-Bills. When the margin is small, the even split wins most often. Our lean is a 30-24 type Rams win, so 4-2 Rams is our upside build. Buffalo is still live if Allen takes over.
Captain board
Salary is the captain price. Proj and ceiling are our FLEX numbers; multiply by 1.5 for the captain slot.
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1. Kyren Williams (LAR RB) · $14,700 · 19.6 proj, 34.1 ceiling
Our captain. The Rams give him two thirds of the backfield work and nearly all of the red zone carries, and Buffalo just lost its best interior lineman. Allen and Nacua will be the two most popular captains, and Kyren costs less than either. About 13% captain ownership.
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2. Matthew Stafford (LAR QB) · $13,500 · 19.3 proj, 30.1 ceiling
The cheapest way to captain the Rams passing game. Quarterbacks win captain in high-scoring close games about one time in four, and both quarterbacks show up in more than half of those winners. About 8% captain ownership.
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3. Puka Nacua (LAR WR) · $17,100 · 23.1 proj, 42.7 ceiling
The highest ceiling on the slate, and he has seen double-digit targets in both games since he returned. He will be the most popular captain, so pair him with a less obvious build around him. About 17% captain ownership.
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4. Josh Allen (BUF QB) · $17,700 · 23.4 proj, 37.8 ceiling
He can win this slate with his legs alone, but no team gives up less per throw than Los Angeles. We would rather have him in the FLEX. About 21% captain ownership.
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5. Colby Parkinson (LAR TE) · $3,600 · 5.1 proj, 13.5 ceiling
Our longest shot. Tight ends win captain more often in high-scoring close games than in any other game type, and almost nobody will put one there tonight. About 1% captain ownership.
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Player board (FLEX salaries)
Orange number is our FLEX projection, then projected ownership.
Core
| QB BUF Josh Allen · $11,800 · 23.4 · 58% | In most of our lineups. Rushing yards and goal line carries give him a floor no one else has. |
| WR LAR Puka Nacua · $11,400 · 23.1 · 55% | Play him at FLEX next to a different captain. That is the cleanest way to have him and still be different. |
| RB LAR Kyren Williams · $9,800 · 19.6 · 35% | Fine in the FLEX too. He catches passes, so he scores even if the Rams fall behind. |
Tight ends
| TE LAR Colby Parkinson · $2,400 · 5.1 · 18% | Our favorite LA tight end at ,400, and he played more snaps than Higbee when both were healthy. The field has caught on, so do not overload him. |
| TE LAR Tyler Higbee · $4,400 · 8.2 · 14% | He drew 17 targets across his past two games, but Parkinson coming back will take some of his snaps. |
| TE LAR Davis Allen · $1,600 · 1.6 · 6% | A min-price tight end for the Rams. A touchdown or nothing. |
Value
| K BUF Tyler Bass · $4,800 · 8.6 · 20% | Kickers show up in more winners here than people expect. If Los Angeles forces Buffalo to settle for three, Bass cashes in. |
| K LAR Harrison Mevis · $5,000 · 8.2 · 20% | Same idea for Los Angeles, whose special teams have been shaky all year. |
| WR BUF Keon Coleman · $5,600 · 8.6 · 11% | The biggest winner from Moore sitting. Nearly every-down routes at ,600, and the field has not caught up yet. |
| WR BUF Khalil Shakir · $7,000 · 9.6 · 18% | Buffalo's slot receiver, and the slot is where the Rams can be beaten. With Moore out, he is the wideout Allen trusts most. |
| RB LAR Blake Corum · $3,800 · 6.7 · 12% | Gets some run behind Kyren, mostly in the second half if the Rams are ahead. His snaps have dropped every week, so treat him as a touchdown dart. |
| WR BUF Skyler Bell · $200 · 1.5 · 7% | The cheapest way to fit Allen, Nacua and Kyren in one lineup. A rookie in his debut, but with Moore and Palmer both out he has a path to real snaps. A single touchdown and he pays off at $200. |
Fades
| RB BUF James Cook III · $10,600 · 18.0 · 29% | Priced like a star but barely catches passes, Los Angeles has yet to give up a touchdown run to a back this season, and Allen takes the goal line carries. |
| TE BUF Dalton Kincaid · $6,600 · 11.5 · 36% | More than a third of the field is on him, against a defense that gives up almost nothing per target to tight ends. We will be under the field. |
| WR LAR Davante Adams · $9,400 · 16.6 · 31% | His targets drop when Nacua plays. Fine as a pivot, but we prefer the cheaper Rams pieces. |
GPP Core
Captain Kyren Williams with Josh Allen and Puka Nacua: the two best players on the board in the FLEX, and a captain the field is using less. Allen and Nacua are each on more than half of rosters, so your captain and last three spots are where you get different. $37,900 for the three.
Finish it yourself. Add Parkinson or Higbee, then a kicker or Keon Coleman. Land between $49,000 and $49,900 in salary.
| The contrarian defensive build. Defenses almost never win showdowns in high-scoring games. If you think Los Angeles frustrates Allen and the game lands well under the total, captain the Rams defense, play Kyren, Nacua and Stafford, and add Bass. It only works if Buffalo stalls, so keep it to a small slice of your lineups. |
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Build it in two clicks
Open the NFL Showdown optimizer, click Set Game Script, and enter 30-24 Rams. The optimizer applies the constraints from the data above. For your Buffalo builds, run it again with 27-24 Bills.
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Good luck tonight. Reply to this email with questions, or come talk lineups in the Discord.
Salaries are DraftKings Showdown prices. Projections and ownership are Seeking Optimal's, as shown in the optimizer Monday afternoon. Lines are sportsbook spreads and totals. Game-script findings come from past DraftKings NFL showdown winners. Updated after inactives. Play responsibly.
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