Monday Night Showdown Rundown
Bears at Seahawks
Lumen Field · 8:15 ET · DraftKings Showdown
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Spread
SEA -3
we like the Bears to win
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Total
46.5
implied 24.75 / 21.75
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Weather
44°F
dry, almost no wind
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What changed this week
- Chicago lost two pieces. Cole Kmet is done for the year and Kyle Monangai is out, so Swift has the backfield to himself and Loveland is the only tight end who matters.
- Seattle is thinner outside. With Rashid Shaheed sidelined, there are more snaps for Tory Horton and Cooper Kupp behind JSN. Left tackle Charles Cross is out too, against a Bears front that likes to bring pressure.
- The Seattle backfield is a guess. Zach Charbonnet is set to play his first game back from last year's ACL tear. Jadarian Price is expected back from injured reserve, but Seattle has to activate him first. Check the inactives before lock.
- Clean conditions. Mid-40s and dry with barely any wind. Nothing slows either offense down.
Our read
We think Ben Johnson's offense moves the ball on Seattle, and that the Bears defense gets Darnold to throw at least one ball to the wrong team. Seattle has a habit of letting backs catch passes underneath, which sets Swift up for a big night. Our call is Bears 21-20, a close game Chicago wins at the end.
Most of the field will build JSN at captain with Darnold in the FLEX. We like JSN. We'd rather not have the same lineup as everyone else, so we're fading Darnold and building around Caleb Williams instead.
What wins a low-scoring, one-score game
We study the winning lineup from every DraftKings NFL showdown. Our 21-20 call lands in the low-scoring, one-score bucket. Here's what those winners had in common.
| Team split | 3 or 4 players from the winning team in 70% of winners. No 5-1 here. Build 4-2 or 3-3 Bears. |
| Captain position | WR 37% · RB 34% · QB 12%. Receivers and backs own this slot. A quarterback captain is a bet, not the default. |
| Kicker and defense | A defense in 45% of winners and a kicker in 45%. Usually the defense of the team that won. |
| Salary | Winners averaged about $48,900, and a quarter of them used $48,700 or less. You don't need to spend all $50K to win. |
See the winners for yourself. Perfect Lineups, part of Seeking Optimal Pro, shows the winning lineup and the best possible lineup for every DraftKings contest.
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Roster construction, in order
4-2 Bears › 3-3 › 4-2 Seahawks
Counts are Bears-Seahawks. Caleb Williams is in every lineup. Seattle pieces come from JSN, AJ Barner and the cheap receivers, not Darnold.
Captain board
Salary is the captain price. Proj and ceiling are our FLEX numbers; multiply by 1.5 for the captain slot.
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1. Caleb Williams (CHI QB) · $15,300 · 15.8 proj, 23.0 ceiling
The only quarterback in this game who runs, and he's in all of our lineups anyway. A quarterback captain wins less often in this game shape, which is why the field is light on him. That's the opening. About 8% captain ownership.
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2. D'Andre Swift (CHI RB) · $14,700 · 15.2 proj, 24.9 ceiling
Every Chicago backfield touch is his with Monangai out, and Seattle gives up catches to backs. Pair him with the Bears defense. About 10% captain ownership.
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3. Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA WR) · $18,000 · 25.9 proj, 41.5 ceiling
Seattle's top talent. Captain him without Darnold and you skip the most common lineup of the night. About 28% captain ownership.
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4. Rome Odunze (CHI WR) · $11,400 · 10.0 proj, 18.4 ceiling
The deep threat. He needs one or two catches to pay off his price at captain, and almost nobody is there. About 4% captain ownership.
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Player board (FLEX salaries)
Orange number is our FLEX projection, then projected ownership.
Core
| QB CHI Caleb Williams · $10,200 · 15.8 · 40% | In every lineup, captain or FLEX. |
| RB CHI D'Andre Swift · $9,800 · 15.2 · 34% | Our favorite Bear after Caleb. A full workload plus targets out of the backfield, which Seattle tends to allow. |
| WR SEA Jaxon Smith-Njigba · $12,000 · 25.9 · 58% | Seattle's whole passing game. Play him; just don't build the field's lineup around him. |
| DST CHI Bears · $3,800 · 6.1 · 9% | Seattle's left tackle is out, and we think Chicago forces a turnover. Owned well under the Seahawks defense. |
Bears pass catchers
| WR CHI Rome Odunze · $7,600 · 10.0 · 21% | Our favorite of the Bears receivers. Big plays mean he doesn't need many targets. |
| TE CHI Colston Loveland · $7,800 · 11.1 · 38% | The only tight end left in Chicago. We're a bit over the field here. |
| WR CHI Luther Burden III · $9,000 · 12.1 · 25% | Seattle's secondary may take him away, so we're under the field. Worth a look only if his ownership stays where it is. |
Value
| WR CHI Kalif Raymond · $3,600 · 6.2 · 11% | Our favorite cheap Bear. Saves you money with real upside. |
| TE SEA AJ Barner · $4,600 · 8.8 · 32% | We like him more than any Seattle running back. Low salary and he rarely leaves the field. |
| WR SEA Tory Horton · $2,800 · 6.8 · 18% | More snaps with Shaheed out. A fine piece, but mix in other cheap options so your JSN lineups aren't all the same. |
Fades
| QB SEA Sam Darnold · $9,400 · 17.1 · 50% | Half the field has him. We think the Bears defense picks him off, and leaving him out is the simplest way to be different. |
| DST SEA Seahawks · $4,200 · 7.5 · 13% | The field likes the home defense more than we do. We think Chicago's offense moves the ball. |
| RB SEA Zach Charbonnet · $7,000 · 8.9 · 23% | First game back from a torn ACL in a backfield nobody can predict. Barner is the better Seattle bet. |
| RB SEA Jadarian Price · $6,400 · 8.4 · 23% | Almost a quarter of the field, and Seattle still has to activate him from injured reserve. Even if he plays, he's sharing carries three ways. We'd rather have the cheaper tight end. |
GPP Core
Captain Caleb Williams with D'Andre Swift and the Bears defense in the FLEX: the one runner at quarterback, his only real back, and the defense we think wins the turnover battle. $28,900 for the three.
Finish it yourself. Add one or two of JSN, Odunze and Loveland, then fill with Kalif Raymond or AJ Barner. That's a 4-2 or 3-3 Bears build. Leave Darnold out and finish closer to $49,000 than $50,000.
The JSN lineup. Captain JSN, keep Caleb and Swift in the FLEX, and use Raymond or Barner to make the salary work. Still no Darnold.
The deep-ball lineup. Captain Odunze with Caleb and Swift in the FLEX. If one deep shot lands, very few people have it. |
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Build it in two clicks
Open the NFL Showdown optimizer, click Set Game Script, and enter 21-20 Bears. The optimizer applies the constraints from the data above. Lock Caleb Williams, exclude Darnold, and let it fill the rest.
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Good luck tonight. Reply to this email with questions, or come talk lineups in the Discord.
Salaries are DraftKings Showdown prices. Projections and ownership are Seeking Optimal's, as shown in the optimizer Monday afternoon. Lines are sportsbook spreads and totals. Game-script findings come from past DraftKings NFL showdown winners. Check inactives before lock. Play responsibly.
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