PGA DFS Rundown
Bank of Utah Championship
Black Desert Resort, Utah · DraftKings Classic · locks Thursday 9:35 ET
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Winning score
-23 / -22
2024 / 2025
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What wins here
Ball-striking
off the tee + approach
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Wind
Calm
no wave edge
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The course
This is the third year at Black Desert, and both previous editions turned into shootouts: Matt McCarty won at -23 in 2024 and Michael Brennan at -22 last year. Only about half the field made the cut each year, so a bad Thursday is hard to recover from.
We looked at every golfer's strokes gained by category here and how it lined up with where they finished. The closer to 1, the more that skill decided the leaderboard.
| Off the tee | 0.44. The strongest link to a high finish. |
| Approach | 0.42. Right behind it. |
| Putting | 0.36. |
| Around the green | 0.30. The least important here. |
In a birdie-fest, the players who hit it best from tee to green create the most chances. We weighted ball-striking in every pick below.
Weather and tee times
Half the field goes off in the morning Thursday and the afternoon Friday, and the other half the reverse. The forecast is calm both days: about 3 to 4 mph Thursday and 3 to 5 mph Friday. Neither draw has an edge, so there is no reason to stack one wave this week.
What wins PGA tournaments
We studied the winning lineup from big DraftKings PGA tournaments. Here is what they had in common.
| A $10,000 golfer | 71% of winners had one. This week only Jackson Koivun and Michael Brennan cost $10,000 or more. |
| A cheap golfer | 72% had at least one golfer under $7,000. Stars and scrubs beats a balanced build. |
| A contrarian piece | 53% had a golfer under 5% owned. |
| Ownership | Median total ownership 84%, about 14% per golfer. |
| Salary | Median spend $49,900. Use the whole cap. |
| See the winners for yourself. Perfect Lineups, part of Seeking Optimal Pro, shows the winning lineup and the best possible lineup for every DraftKings contest, including the last two here at Black Desert. |
Player board
Orange number is our projection, then projected ownership. Win and cut odds are ours.
Tournament picks (GPP)
| Doug Ghim · $9,500 · 88.9 · 11% | Our #4 golfer this week with 27% top-10 odds, at half of Koivun's ownership. Our course-fit numbers grade him positively for a ball-striker's course. |
| Matt Wallace · $9,700 · 87.5 · 12% | Our #2 golfer and priced below both $10,000 players. Top-10 odds of 25%. |
| Kevin Roy · $7,600 · 78.0 · 6% | Our best tournament value under $8,000: the #10 golfer in our model at $7,600, about 6% owned. |
| Mac Meissner · $8,600 · 81.1 · 6% | Gained 1.3 strokes per round here across two starts, at 6% ownership. |
| Justin Lower · $6,700 · 62.3 · 2% | Finished 3rd here and averaged 1.7 strokes gained per round across two starts. A $6,700 punt at 2% owned. |
Cash game core
| Maverick McNealy · $9,600 · 88.8 · 14% | 83% to make the cut, the best of any $9,000 golfer. |
| Doug Ghim · $9,500 · 88.9 · 11% | 82% cut odds and one of the best values in the $9,000s. |
| Zachary Bauchou · $7,300 · 76.0 · 9% | Our #13 golfer at $7,300 with 73% cut odds. |
| Kris Ventura · $7,400 · 77.9 · 12% | Gained 2.0 strokes per round in his only start here and finished 11th. |
Values the model loves
| Trace Crowe · $6,900 · 70.2 · 3% | Our #27 golfer, priced like the #58 player on the slate. |
| Zac Blair · $7,000 · 71.3 · 5% | Our #29 golfer at $7,000. |
| Andrew Putnam · $6,600 · 66.6 · 3% | Our #39 golfer, priced like the #75 player. 3% owned. |
Fades
| Matthew McCarty · $9,000 · 72.5 · 14% | He won here in 2024, which is why he'll be popular. But he ranks #47 in our model this week with 67% cut odds, the worst of any $9,000 golfer. |
| The chalk. Jackson Koivun (25%), Michael Brennan (24%) and Benjamin James (22%) will be the most popular golfers. All three rank in our top five, so they are fine plays, but with winners averaging about 14% per golfer, play one of them, not all three. |
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Build yours in the optimizer
Open the PGA optimizer, lock your core and one contrarian golfer, and let it fill the rest under the cap. Our projections and ownership update through Thursday morning.
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Good luck this week. Reply to this email with questions, or come talk lineups in the Discord.
Salaries are DraftKings Classic prices. Projections, ownership, and win and cut odds are Seeking Optimal's as of Wednesday. Course history covers the 2024 and 2025 events at Black Desert. Weather is the forecast for each wave. Play responsibly.
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